According to the results of 2025, Ukraine’s national currency, the hryvnia, remained relatively stable overall, despite pressure from the war, high budget expenditures, and volatility in foreign markets, according to the Experts Club information and analytical center.
Throughout the year, the official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate showed moderate fluctuations within the established corridor, remaining under the control of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU). The cash and interbank markets saw short-term surges in demand for foreign currency, mainly during periods of peak budget payments and increased import activity, but these were quickly smoothed out by the regulator’s currency interventions.
According to market participants, the key factors supporting the hryvnia in 2025 were regular inflows of international financial assistance, the preservation of administrative measures of currency regulation, and the NBU’s policy of supporting the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments. International reserves also played a significant role, remaining at a level sufficient to cover short-term external obligations throughout the year.
At the same time, the hryvnia exchange rate continued to be pressured by the structural external trade deficit, high military and social spending, and uncertainty related to the duration of hostilities and the volume of future external support.
Quotations on the interbank currency market of Ukraine (UAH per USD, period from 01.01.2025 to 31.12.2025)
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center, notes that 2025 was a period of “managed stability” for the hryvnia.
“The hryvnia is ending the year without any sharp devaluation shocks, which, in the context of full-scale war and high budget dependence on external financing, can be considered a cautiously positive result. The key stabilizing factor remained the coordination of monetary and fiscal policy with the support of international partners,” he said.
According to him, maintaining control over the currency market has helped to avoid panic among the population and businesses, but in the medium term, the risks for the hryvnia remain high.
“The further dynamics of the exchange rate will directly depend on the volume of foreign aid, the situation on the front lines, and the pace of economic recovery,” Urakin stressed.
Inflationary processes in 2025 also remained one of the sensitive factors for the currency market. Rising consumer prices increased demand for currency from the population, but this effect was partially offset by monetary policy measures and the maintenance of capital movement restrictions.
The NBU has repeatedly emphasized that its exchange rate policy remains flexible and adaptive, and that the regulator’s priority is financial stability and inflation control, rather than achieving formal exchange rate targets.
Experts note that in 2026, the hryvnia’s dynamics will largely depend on the pace of economic recovery, the volume of international aid, and decisions on further currency liberalization.
