The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), after depreciating the official hryvnia exchange rate by 12 kopecks on Monday, lowered it by another 7 kopecks on Tuesday to 41.5035 UAH/$1, according to the regulator’s website.
“Ukraine’s currency market remains under pressure from psychological factors, although the fundamental macroeconomic indicators do not yet give grounds for strong devaluation pressure and abrupt changes in exchange rates,” KIT Group analysts state in their currency market forecast.
At the same time, they expect a smooth devaluation of the hryvnia in the future. In particular, according to KIT Group’s forecast, the official exchange rate of the national currency to the US dollar will remain in the range of 41-42 UAH/$1 by the end of November, provided that the current state of the macroeconomy and security situation remains unchanged.
By the end of this year, analysts predict the hryvnia will weaken to 43 UAH/$1, which, according to them, may be due to seasonal demand for foreign currency.
The National Bank set the reference exchange rate at 12:00 p.m. today at 41.4815 UAH/$1, compared to 41.4087 UAH/$1 a day earlier.
The US dollar on the cash market on Tuesday rose by 8 kopecks, both when buying and selling, to 41.68 UAH/$1 and 41.75 UAH/$1, respectively.
Since the beginning of 2024, the dollar has risen by 9.2%, or UAH 3.50, at the official exchange rate, and by 13.5%, or UAH 4.93, since the National Bank switched to managed flexibility on October 3, 2023.
The average annual rate of 45 UAH/$1 included in the state budget for 2025 is considered realistic by KIT Group analysts, who note that it implies exchange rate fluctuations in the range of 44-46 UAH/$1.
Ukraine’s international reserves in October, according to preliminary estimates of the NBU, decreased by 6%, or $2.32 billion, to $36 billion 578 million, while net international reserves (NIR) decreased by $3.11 billion, or 12.2%, to $22 billion 437 million.
