A five-year period of rebuilding Ukraine after the war will require additional investment of about $50 billion a year thanks to inflows of foreign capital, including private capital, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) laid out this scenario in its Regional Economic Outlook report published on Tuesday.
“For a rapid recovery, foreign capital inflows need to reach $50 billion a year within five years,” the bank pointed out, citing lessons from history.
It noted that a quick recovery is not the norm: historically, most economies that emerge from armed conflict do not experience a long-term quiet period for 25 years afterward, nor do they recover to prewar per capita income levels even in the long run.
At the same time, the report says, 29 percent of economies do reach prewar per capita GDP levels within five years.
“For Ukraine to recover within five years, its economy would have to grow at a rate of 14% per year for the entire period. This would raise average GDP to $225 billion from about $150 billion in 2022 at constant prices,” the EBRD stressed.
In the meantime, the bank has kept Ukraine’s GDP growth forecast for 2023 and 2024 at 1% and 3%, respectively.
The bank added that the main common feature of the periods of stable extremely high economic growth is a high investment-to-GDP ratio. He reminded that before the war the moderate levels of investment in Ukraine were mainly financed by domestic savings: capital inflows were only 3% of GDP per year in 2010-21, while foreign direct investment tends to fall substantially after a war and takes a long time to recover.
This is why the report cites the example of Central and Southeast Europe in the 2000s, where domestic savings were low, but foreign financing helped sustain the investment boom.
In the case of Ukraine, doubling the level of investment (as part of GDP) would require a significant increase in the country’s absorptive capacity, as well as the governance structure needed to develop complex projects and contracts, the EBRD notes.
“In this scenario, the difference between the required level of investment and available domestic savings would probably need to be covered by external financing (net capital inflows) of 20 percent of GDP, or $50 billion per year,” the report summarizes.
The bank draws attention to the importance of private investment, as the private sector provides much-needed technological expertise, management know-how and a focus on economic efficiency.
“In addition to energy-efficient industrial capital and agricultural machinery, the private sector can make an important contribution to the rehabilitation of housing, as well as transport, energy and municipal infrastructure, provided that individual individuals and entities have adequate access to financing,” the report said.
The EBRD reminded that it had committed to invest EUR3 billion in Ukraine in 2022-2023, supporting the real economy, and is ready to play a key role in the recovery when circumstances permit.
As reported, Ukraine’s international financing to cover the state budget deficit is expected to rise to $42.5 billion in 2023, up from $32 billion in 2022.
According to the National Bank of Ukraine, direct investment in the country was $51.1 billion at the end of 2022, and peaked at $65.7 billion at the end of 2021.
Ukraine’s largest mobile operator “Kyivstar” in a year of war paid 10.7 billion UAH of taxes and invested in technological development of 3.5 billion UAH, the president of the company, Alexander Komarov said on Facebook.
The second largest operator “Vodafone Ukraine” reported paying 4.97 billion UAH of taxes and fees in 2022 and almost 4 billion UAH of investments in support and development of telecom infrastructure in Ukraine.
“92% of the network is working as usual today. This is an incredible result, given that 8% are in the occupied territories. At the same time we returned connection to 815 settlements, where we built more than 600 base stations (BS). More 700 new base stations of 4G standard were built, which increased the 4G coverage by 20%”, – wrote Komarov.
He added that the generating capacity of Kyivstar reached 39.2 MW thanks to increase of the number of diesel generators by 75% and installation of 18 thousand new batteries.
“As of today 88% of the network in the country is working in normal mode” – stated “Vodafone Ukraine”.
According to the company, 581 base stations were resumed and 2.9 thousand km of fiber-optic cable were repaired, thanks to which it was possible to restore the availability of services to people in 759 settlements of the country.
“Vodafone Ukraine” also reported that 723 base stations were launched in new locations, 414 additional mobile generators were purchased and 24.71 thousand batteries were replaced.
Capital investments of Vodafone Ukraine in 2022 amounted to about $100 million, not less than before the full-scale Russian invasion, NEQSOL Holding Ukraine regional director Volodymyr Lavrenchuk told the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
“As a responsible investor in 2022, NEQSOL Holding supported the strategy of capital investments made by Vodafone Ukraine Group in the most difficult conditions at the level of last year. These are investments to provide communications for millions of Ukrainians and data transmission systems for various production and service sectors”, – said Lavrenchuk.
Investments were mainly used to maintain network stability and restore communications in the de-occupied territories, as well as to buy new equipment and improve the company’s coverage, the press service of Vodafone Ukraine specified.
“If during peacetime emergency works accounted for no more than 2% of all works, since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion they have taken up more than 95% of the time. Only for 9 months of 2022 more than 1 thousand repairs to restore damaged networks were carried out,” – noted in Vodafone Ukraine.
Since the beginning of the Russian invasion in Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Mykolaiv and Kherson regions more than 500 Vodafone Ukraine base stations were damaged (of those that were able to survey). Operation of 577 base stations has been resumed, the company said.
According to the company, since March, Vodafone Ukraine has restored communications in more than 550 settlements, in particular in 123 towns and villages of Kherson region in the past week. Also 2.56 thousand kilometers of fiber-optic cable was renewed, the total length of unrecoverable and re-laid optics was 37 kilometers.
“Blackouts were an additional challenge. All equipment, except fiber optic, requires power supply and its absence is critical for network operation,” Vodafone Ukraine said, stressing that in order to ensure communication despite long blackouts they provide base stations with backup batteries, as well as use alternative power sources from diesel generators to solar panels.
Vodafone Ukraine in 2022 also invested in expanding coverage in the western part of the country, where most Ukrainians have moved since the war began. Since the beginning of the year, 150 base stations have been installed and a number of existing ones upgraded. In order to expand the 4G coverage 3.8 thousand base stations were installed, 250 new sites were built and 1.5 thousand 3G base stations were modernized.
Also the company continues to provide free services to Ukrainians, in particular in roaming, which has already been used by 14 million Ukrainians, the press service said.
Wealthy Russians subject to U.S. sanctions may try to evade them by investing in the U.S. commercial real estate market, the U.S. Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) warned. The regulator urged U.S. banks to be vigilant, noting that the complex financing schemes and opaque partnership structures used in this market can help hide funds, writes The Wall Street Journal. FinCEN is the recipient of suspicious activity reports that financial institutions are required to file when they detect signals that a transaction is potentially illegal. The warning for banks issued by the regulator on Wednesday is another attempt by the U.S. Treasury Department to prevent wealthy Russian citizens from circumventing financial sanctions, the WSJ notes. “Thanks to international pressure and economic restrictions imposed on Russia by more than 30 countries, there are fewer and fewer opportunities for sanctioned Russian elites to move and hide their ill-gotten gains,” said Himamouli Das, acting head of FinCEN. The regulator outlined a number of signs and “red flags” that should alert banks. For example, sanctioned Russians may try to use investment pools or offshore funds to avoid inspections, he warned. Banks are usually not required to identify people who own less than 25% of shares in the funds. Thus, sanctioned individuals can reduce their stakes to avoid scrutiny while still retaining control of the fund, FinCEN says. They may use front companies and multi-level schemes involving multiple legal entities or trusts, as well as transfer assets to other family members or business partners to hide their involvement, the regulator warns. It notes that sanctioned individuals may not only invest in high-end and luxury real estate. In some cases, they may look for more discreet investments that provide a stable income without attracting unwanted attention. Using such strategies to evade sanctions is just as likely in small and mid-sized U.S. cities as it is in metropolitan areas, FinCEN notes. Last year, the regulator issued a similar warning to banks, advising them to pay close attention to transactions involving art, luxury yachts and jewelry.
in January-September 2022, the international vertically integrated steel and pipe company Interpipe cut its capital investments by three times as against the similar period of the last year – to $15 mn from $45 mn.
According to a presentation of the company’s operations for the nine months of last year, capital investments in the period under review amounted to $7mn ($6mn in 9M2021), $8mn in steelmaking and $31mn in pipe production, while there were no investments in railroad operations ($8mn).
We would like to note that the figures for 9M-2022 are unaudited.
As we informed, in January-September 2022, Interpipe earned $185.952 mln, while during the same period last year it amounted to $32.338 mln (5.75 times more). The company made $199.975 mln of profit after tax, compared to $56.505 mln for the first nine months of 2021 (a 3.5 times increase). At the same time, revenues decreased by 9.3% to $686.634 mln. The company increased its free cash flow to $126.476 mln as of September 30, 2022, from $103.007 mln at the end of September 2021.
EBITDA at the end of September 2022 was $123.023 million ($51.508 million for the pipe segment, “minus” $3.287 million for the rail segment, $74.222 million for the steel segment, $580 thousand for other operations), compared to $150.876 million (“minus” $36.040 million, “plus” $15.351 million, $169.483 million and $2.082 million respectively at the end of 2021).
“Interpipe is a Ukrainian industrial company producing seamless pipes and railroad wheels. The company supplies its products to over 80 countries all over the world via a network of commercial offices located in the key markets of the CIS, the Middle East, North America, and Europe. In 2021, the company sold 602 thnd mt of tubes and 174 thnd mt of railroad products. The company sells its railroad products under the KLW brand.
There are about 10 thsd. employees in Interpipe.
The company consists of five industrial assets: “Interpipe Nizhnedneprovsky Tube Rolling Plant (NTZ)”, “Interpipe Novomoskovsk Tube Plant (NMTZ)”, “Interpipe Niko Tube”, “Interpipe Vtormet” and the electric steelmaking complex “Dneprosteel” under the brand name “Interpipe Steel”.
The ultimate owner of Interpipe Limited is Ukrainian businessman Viktor Pinchuk and his family members.
Onur, one of the largest road construction and repair companies in Ukraine, reduced the scope of work by 90 percent in 2022 because of the war and froze the implementation of almost all large-scale road infrastructure projects, Onur Group Ukraine chief coordinator Emre Karaahmetoglu said in a partner interview with NV.
“Despite the war, we still managed to complete some objects: we finished the roads in Khmelnytsky region and sections of the Kiev-Kharkiv highway, which we had been working on since 2019. Both projects were financed at the expense of the World Bank,” Karaahmetoglu noted.
He also said that since the beginning of the war, the company has been expanding accesses to customs points in the west of the country, has been building a new Irpen bridge near Kiev since late May, and is also working in the Kharkiv region after its de-occupation, where it is conducting emergency work to rebuild roads.
Karaahmetoglu added that the company recently won a tender to build three bridges in the Kiev region, which is financed by the British export credit agency UK Export Finance.
According to him, if it were not for the war, the company would have opened a new hotel in the center of Lviv, for which a building was purchased last year and reconstruction began. “After the war, we will quickly complete work on this project,” he pointed out.
The chief coordinator also said that Onur Group had already acquired several land plots in Lviv and Lviv region during the war and was thinking about what projects could be implemented.
Karaahmetoglu noted that the company’s other investment plans in Ukraine include mining, green energy, where Onur already has 150 megawatts from solar plants, and the agricultural sector with processing. “We have a small, about 5 thousand hectares of land in western Ukraine. We plan to double it. And then engage in processing of agricultural products”, – he specified.
The representative of Onur added that before the war the equipment for the development of sand pits in Lviv region and lines for production of bridge beams at the concrete plant in the west of the country were made for the company orders and said that they would be installed immediately after the war.
According to him, Onur also intends to complete such large-scale projects as the construction of the Zaporozhye bridge and the reconstruction of the runway at Dnipro airport after Ukraine’s victory, as well as initiating a project to build the Stryy-Mukachevo toll road, already developing technical documentation for it.
“There is a future for toll roads, they will be in demand after the war is over. In my opinion, this project should be engaged now”, noted Karaahmetoglu.
The representative of the company specified that the fleet of machinery in Ukraine is about 4 thousand units, as well as 20 asphalt plants, 15 concrete plants, 15 enterprises for the production of foundation, but several plants were lost during the war. Onur Group Ukraine currently employs about 2,000 people.
According to the company’s Facebook, it operates in 9 sectors, last year it performed road works in Moldova.
Onur Group is ranked 82nd in the top 250 largest contractors in the world by leading American publication ENR 2022.
