The real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the second quarter of 2022 fell by 37.2% compared to the second quarter of 2021 after falling by 15.1% in the first quarter of this year, the State Statistics Service has published a preliminary estimate.
The decrease in real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in August 2022 compared to August 2021 is estimated at 35%, the Ministry of Economy has given such an estimate.
Ukraine’s real GDP will fall by 31% in 2022 and will recover by 8% in 2023 if half of the current major negative factors are resolved by the end of 2022, and by the end of 2023 they will disappear, predicts the investment company Concorde Capital.
The recovery of Ukraine’s real GDP next year after a 32% slump this year will be negligible-4%, due to the loss of physical assets and human capital, predicts ICU investment group.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) still expects Ukraine’s economy to contract by 30% in 2022, but for 2023 it has worsened its growth forecast from 25% to 8%, according to the bank’s Regional Economic Outlook report.
Exports of goods from Ukraine in August increased by 13.9% compared to July – up to $3.363 billion, while imports decreased by 2.3% – to $4.416 billion, said the Ministry of Economy. According to its data, as a result of negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in the past month decreased to $1.053 billion from $1.569 billion in July and $1.549 billion in June.
Ukraine’s merchandise trade deficit for the first half of September 2022 was only $111 million compared to $1.05 billion in August, Deputy Economy Minister – Trade Representative of Ukraine Taras Kachka said on Facebook on Thursday.
The draft state budget for 2023 provides for UAH 1.28 trillion of revenues and UAH 2.57 trillion of expenses, said Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal.
Ukraine’s consolidated balance of payments deficit in July 2022 was $299 million compared to a surplus of UAH 484 million in July last year, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said on its website.
Ukraine’s international reserves as of September 1, 2022, according to preliminary data, amounted to $25 billion 436 million (in equivalent), which is 13.6% more than at the beginning of June ($22.757bn), according to the National Bank of Ukraine.
Consumer price growth in Ukraine accelerated to 1.1% in August 2022 from 0.7% in July, the State Statistics Service (Gosstat) said.
Taxable imports of land vehicles to Ukraine in January-August 2022 decreased by 53% compared to the same period in 2021, to $2.191bn.
Head of the project “Economic Monitoring” candidate of economic sciences Maksim Urakin
Ukraine’s real GDP will fall by 31% in 2022 and recover by 8% in 2023 if by the end of 2022 half of the current main negative factors are resolved, and by the end of 2023 they will come to nothing, Concorde Capital investment company predicts.
The real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the second quarter of 2022 fell by 37.2% compared to the second quarter of 2021 after falling by 15.1% in the first quarter of this year, the State Statistics Service published such a preliminary estimate.
The negative dynamics of the economy is still softer than the NBU expected, but the experience of 2014-2015 and the prolongation of the war allow us to assume that the situation may worsen in the future, Oleksandr Paraschiy, the head of the analytical department of Concorde Capital investment company, believes.
Export of goods from Ukraine in August increased by 13.9% compared to July to $3.363 billion, while imports decreased by 2.3% to $4.416 billion, the Ministry of Economy reported.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) preliminary estimates the growth of annual inflation in August at the level of up to 23%, Deputy Governor of the NBU Serhiy Nikolaychuk said.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in August 2022 accelerated to 1.1% from 0.7% in July, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine reported on Friday. In August last year, 0.2% deflation was recorded, so year-over-year, in August this year, inflation rose to 23.8% from 22.2% in July and 21.5% in June.
Underlying inflation jumped even more last month, to 2.1% from 1.2% in July, 1.6% in June and 1.4% in May.
The draft state budget for 2023, which the government approved on Tuesday, is based on a forecast of 4.6% growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) and 37% nominal growth with inflation up to 30% and an average annual exchange rate of UAH 42/$1, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) kept the key policy rate at 25% at the September 7 meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously supported MPC members, the NBU said on its website.
The total area of residential buildings for which construction permits have been issued (new construction) in January-June 2022 decreased by 1.8 times (44.5%) compared to the same period in 2021, to 2.5 million square meters, according to the State Statistics Service.
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
S&P Global Ratings lowered its foreign currency (FC) long-term sovereign credit and issue ratings on Ukraine to ‘CC’ from ‘CCC+’. The outlook on the long-term sovereign rating is negative.
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Ukraine’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LTFC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘CC’ from ‘RD’ (restricted default).
The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine expects a decline in GDP of at least 30-35% in 2022, and for the next year it has developed four macroeconomic scenarios, which, depending on the conditions, give from 0.4% further decline to 15.5% of economic growth, First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko has reported.
The deficit of Ukraine’s trade in goods in July this year amounted to $1.798 billion, which is 4.1 times more than in July last year ($440 million). According to its data, exports of goods in July fell by 47.9% compared to last year, to $2.92 billion, while imports fell by 21.9%, to $4.718 billion. Geographically, in trade with the EU, even an increase in imports was recorded by 9.1%, to $2.651 billion, while exports decreased by 8.3%, to $2.158 billion.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in July 2022 due to seasonal factors slowed down to 0.7% from 3.1% in June and 2.7% in May, returning to the level of the end of last year.
In July last year, inflation was 0.1%, so in annual terms, in July this year, it rose to 22.2% from 21.5% in June and 18% in May.
The loan portfolio of Ukrainian banks in July 2022 decreased by 6% to UAH 1.212 trillion, while the volume of non-performing loans (NPL) increased by 7.1% to UAH 363.682 billion, according to a report on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine ( NBU).
During January-May 2022, Ukraine’s leading retail companies paid about UAH 15 billion in taxes and provided jobs for almost 250,000 employees, the press service of the Retail Association of Ukraine (RAU) reported.
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
