In its new video on the YouTube platform, the Kiev-based information and analytical center Experts Club has published a rating of countries with the highest probability of sovereign default. The ranking considered both economic and political factors that could lead states to default.
As Maxim Urakin, the founder of Experts Club, PhD in Economics, noted, the current economic situation in the world is alarming.
“The world economy is facing unprecedented challenges and many countries are on the verge of financial collapse. Under such conditions, it is crucial to understand which states are at the greatest risk of default in order to take appropriate measures,” he emphasized.
State default is a situation when a country cannot fulfill its debt obligations to creditors. According to Maxim Urakin, default can have catastrophic consequences for the country’s economy and its citizens.
“Default is not just a technical event. It is a tragedy for millions of people who may lose their jobs, their savings and even access to basic social benefits. That is why we monitor the economic situation in various countries so closely,” Urakin added.
The Experts Club 2024 ranking of countries with the highest probability of default includes Argentina, Lebanon, Sri Lanka and several other countries already facing serious economic problems. These countries are characterized by high levels of external debt, economic instability and political crises.
Experts Club also identified several countries that are at risk in the medium term. Among them are Argentina and Venezuela, which are already facing economic instability and high levels of debt, as well as Greece and Italy, which are dependent on external creditors.
|
Experts Club Rating |
Country |
Current international rating |
| 1. | Argentina | CCC- |
| 2. | Ghana | in default |
| 3. | Sri Lanka | in default |
| 4. | Lebanon | in default |
| 5. | Zambia | in default |
| 6. | Pakistan | CCC |
| 7. | Mozambique | CCC |
| 8. | Ukraine | CCC |
| 9. | Ethiopia | CCC |
| 10. | Cameroon | CCC+ |
| 11. | Bolivia | CCC+ |
| 12. | Burkina Faso | CCC+ |
| 13. | Suriname | in default |
| 14. | Tunisia | CCC |
| 15. | Egypt | B- |
| 16. | Nigeria | B- |
| 17. | El Salvador | B- |
| 18. | Honduras | B- |
| 19. | Laos | B- |
| 20. | Venezuela | in default |
“We see that countries like Argentina and Venezuela continue to be on the verge of default due to internal economic instability and external pressures. Also of concern is the situation in Greece and Italy, which are highly dependent on international loans. The risk of default remains high in these countries,” commented Urakin.
Special attention this year is paid to Lebanon, which, according to the economist, is “in a state of political and economic crisis, with extremely high debt to GDP.” This makes the country particularly vulnerable to a possible default.
Maxim Urakin also elaborated on the factors that could lead to default. Among them, he emphasized the high level of external debt relative to GDP, economic instability and dependence on external financing.
“Countries with debt-to-GDP ratios above 100% are particularly vulnerable. Lebanon, Cyprus and Greece are examples. Economic instability and political crises in countries such as Argentina, Venezuela and Pakistan also increase the risk of default,” he explained.
Dependence on external financing is another significant factor.
“Countries that depend on external loans to cover budget deficits, such as Spain and Italy, could face difficulties if conditions in international financial markets deteriorate,” Urakin added.
In a commentary on the rating, Maxim Urakin noted that the consequences of a default for a country and its citizens can often be devastating.
“For government agencies, default means restricted access to international financial markets, lower credit rating and the need for painful economic reforms. For citizens, it turns into inflation, devaluation of the national currency, rising unemployment and lower living standards,” the expert explained.
Urakin also emphasized that default may lead to the growth of social discontent and political instability, which may aggravate the situation in the country. He also assured that Experts Club will continue to closely monitor the economic situation in the world and provide timely relevant data to help countries and investors to minimize risks and avoid defaults.
You can learn more about defaults and the presented rating from the video on the YouTube channel of Experts Club:
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Ukrainian exporters of products to EU countries and the Ukrainian government should pay more attention to the problem of decarbonization within the Green Deal strategy and, in particular, CBAM – an additional tax for goods with a high level of carbonization during production, which comes into effect from 2026.
This opinion was expressed by experts and representatives of companies during a roundtable discussion held at the press center of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency on Tuesday on “The impact of CBAM on domestic exporters”.
Olga Kulik, Director of the Department of Ecology of Energy and Green Economy of the Federation of Employers of Ukraine, noted that CBAM is very important, it affects exporters, every enterprise.
According to her, during a recent business trip she communicated with representatives of enterprises and structures in Europe, they collect information on CBAM reports. At the same time, if European companies realize the requirement for verification of emission reports, Ukrainian enterprises have problems in this direction, in particular, Ukrainian verifiers must be accredited by the European Commission.
“Verification by data – time is going fast, and we cannot delay these problems. Therefore, the Ministry of Economy together with the Ministry of Ecology will negotiate so that verification will be accredited in the EC. But so far the issue has not been resolved,” Kulik said.
On the other hand, according to her, European countries also have certain problems with the unified standardization of a number of points, with further steps to implement the “green” initiative. It is necessary to create a working group, for work within the framework of which Ukraine should receive an invitation.
In turn, the director of the information and analytical center GMK Center Stanislav Zinchenko stated that by implementing the SWAM mechanism the EU protects its markets. And in the future similar mechanisms will be introduced in other countries, such as the UK, USA, Australia.
“This is a new wave of protectionism, this is ‘green’ protectionism and it will step the planet. It will lead to a reformatting of flows, but it will also help reduce emissions,” Zinchenko predicts, adding that there are currently not enough emission verifiers in the EU, in Ukraine and globally.
“Less than 10% of the 20,000 companies in Germany that were supposed to report on time have done so. And in Ukraine there are also problems with the reports, with the methodology. A very crude procedure, a crude experiment, but it is starting to affect Ukrainian companies. Ukraine does not have a single document on SWAM”, – stated the expert.
According to him, due to force majeure circumstances because of the war, Ukraine may not be subject to the requirement to submit verified reports from 2026, but only declarative reports on SWAM, without payment for certificates.
According to him, in case of introduction of strict requirements of the SWAM, Ukraine’s losses, if calculated at 2023 prices, may amount to $600 million for pig iron exports (“minus” 1.4 million tons), $640 million for semi-finished products, and $200 million for rolled products. In general, losses at steel enterprises may reach $1.5 billion.
Other industries will also suffer losses.
“We do not see the interest of either the government or the ministries, which should conduct constant negotiations. And the EU is surprised why Ukraine is not actively involved in this process. Unfortunately, part of the government employees believe that this is a problem of business, not the Cabinet,” Zinchenko summarized.
Arzinger partner, head of the Energy and Natural Resources, Environmental Protection and Sustainable Development practice Angelika Livitskaya emphasized that SWAM is a mix of ecology and economics, and Ukraine has an obligation to implement EU legislation in Ukraine.
“We are implementing a number of waste management regulations. And we expect more cooperation from the government and ministries. It is unlikely that we will make it by 2050, but we have a commitment,” Livitskaya said.
According to her, cement, steel, aluminum, and fertilizers will fall mainly under SWAM. And it is necessary to submit reports by May 31 of each year, the first time – by May 31, 2027 with a report for 2026. Failure to submit reports will result in significant fines, from EUR10 to EUR50 for each ton of emissions.
“The government needs to raise the issue of force majeure for Ukrainian enterprises,” Livitskaya believes.
Lyudmyla Kripka, executive director of the Ukrcement association, noted that Ukrainian enterprises have the opportunity to declaratively submit emission reports.
“We initiated such a procedure, we are not obliged to buy SWAM certificates under force majeure circumstances. We offer and ask to work within the framework of SWAM on a declarative principle,” – emphasized Kripka.
The President of Ukrmetallurgprom OP Oleksandr Kalenkov noted that metallurgical enterprises consider SWAM as an irreversible process: “One way or another, it will be implemented and will be worldwide, it will lead to some reformatting of trade all over the world”.
Previously up to a third of steel products went to the EU, the share has now increased due to the blocking of the sea route, and it could increase if the blockade resumes.
“It is important for the government to get involved in the process, to pay more attention to it,” Kalenkov stressed, noting that Euro companies from this eco-initiative receive certain subsidies for their development and modernization.
“It is necessary to level the playing field between Ukrainian and European companies – to apply force majeure conditions for Ukrainian enterprises. It is necessary to approach this issue comprehensively, to take into account the issues of modernization of companies. The Ministry of Industry and Ministry of Economy are involved in this process, but it is important that there is one center that will manage this process, so that a unified position is communicated to European colleagues”, – said the head of Ukrmetallurgprom.
He also believes it is necessary to create a competitive market of verifiers in Ukraine so that both local and European companies could work here.
Earlier, the head of international relations of Metinvest Group Andriy Kryl during Ukraine’s Future Summit said that soon a new obstacle for Ukrainian companies to work in the European market will be the carbon duty (CBAM), which will work in full in 18 months. The top manager expressed hope that thanks to the dialog between the Ukrainian government and the European Commission these obstacles can be overcome and trade flows will remain uninterrupted.
In turn, Vladyslav Varnavskiy, Director for Ecology and Industrial Safety of Interpipe, at the “Exporters’ Summit” organized by Forbes Ukraine, noted that companies should pay more attention to environmental projects within the framework of the EU requirements on the topic of “green” economy – Green Deal and CBAM. And clarified that despite the fact that this topic is becoming increasingly broad and not only political, but also economic and public, in Ukraine so far few companies pay attention to it, even exporters of products to the EU.
As stated on the website of the European Commission, the “green” agreement (Green Deal) is a strategy that should bring the EU economy to a modern, resource-efficient and competitive state through commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 and stop completely by 2050.
ANZHELIKA LIVITSKA, CBAM, LUDMYLA KRIPKA, MAXIM URAKIN, OLEXANDR KALENKOV, OLHA KULYK, STANISLAV ZINCHENKO
According to Ukrainians, the countries of the Arab world are neutral in the Russian-Ukrainian war. This was revealed by a joint study by Active Group and the Experts Club think tank, “Attitudes of Ukrainians toward the Middle East and Central Asia,” which was presented at Interfax-Ukraine on Tuesday.
“The analysis includes a predominantly positive attitude of our citizens towards such countries as Israel (72.5%) and Turkey (55%), while the attitude towards other countries in the region is mostly neutral. Ukrainians are extremely negative about Iran (76%) and mostly negative about Afghanistan (52.6%),” said Oleksandr Poznyi, director of the research company Active Group.
In addition, the expert added that Ukrainians are mostly positive about countries with which they have trade or cultural ties. This is natural, as such ties promote mutual respect between societies and countries.
In his turn, Andriy Yeremenko, founder of the research company Active Group, emphasized that the attitude of Ukrainians towards the Middle East and Central Asia varies depending on many factors.
“We can see that the attitude of citizens is really certain only in relation to two countries – Iran and Israel. These are the countries where the percentage of those who find it difficult to answer is less than 20%. The rest of the countries have a much higher percentage of uncertainty, which indicates that Ukrainians are not well informed about these countries,” emphasized Eremenko.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club think tank, added that building cooperation with the Middle East and Central Asia is very important for the development of the Ukrainian economy, especially in the agricultural and IT sectors. These industries have great potential for development and can become the basis for a mutually beneficial partnership.
“It is necessary to implement a state strategy to reduce the trade deficit and increase Ukraine’s export potential. This will create a more balanced and sustainable economy that will be less dependent on external factors. Ukraine may be interested in agricultural products, IT clusters, and educational services. We are interested in sales markets, agricultural technologies, metallurgy, and chemistry,” Urakin emphasized.
According to him, trade between Ukraine and the countries under study is currently growing rapidly.
“Turkey is the largest trading partner among the countries of the Middle East and Central Asia, accounting for more than half of all trade with these countries. This shows the importance of Turkey for the Ukrainian economy,” the founder of Experts Club added.
According to Urakin, a balanced foreign economic policy in the region can not only significantly improve Ukraine’s relations with Middle Eastern countries, but also have a positive impact on the overall state of the economy.
The results of the study are available here.
ACTIVE GROUP, ALEXANDER POZNIY, ANDREY EREMENKO, CENTRAL_ASIA, ECONOMICS, EXPERTS CLUB, MAXIM URAKIN, MIDDLE_EAST, POLL, SOCIOLOGY
