Positive net migration will remain the main factor partially offsetting the European Union’s natural population decline in the coming decades, according to Eurostat projections.
According to Eurostat estimates, between 2025 and 2100, the EU is expected to see 253 million births and 409.8 million deaths, equivalent to a natural population decline of 156.7 million people. At the same time, total net migration over the same period is expected to add 103.7 million people, which will partially offset the demographic decline.
This is precisely why, as Eurostat emphasizes, high and sustained positive net migration remains the sole driver of population growth for those countries where the population will still be increasing by 2100. In some cases, migration can slow down aging, as the proportion of working-age people is often high among migrants.
At the same time, statisticians note that the impact of migration is ambiguous. In some countries, the influx of migrants of retirement age may, on the contrary, exacerbate population aging, and negative net migration can accelerate this process if younger and economically active residents leave the country.
Overall, under the baseline scenario, the EU population will grow slightly until 2029 and then begin a gradual and increasingly noticeable decline, reaching 398.8 million people by 2100, compared to 451.8 million in 2025.
Eurostat specifically emphasizes that this is not a forecast in the strict sense, but rather a “what-if” scenario based on maintaining the underlying assumptions regarding fertility, mortality, and migration throughout the projection period.
