National bank of Ukraine’s official rates as of 06/05/22
Source: National Bank of Ukraine
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is recording the adaptation and gradual recovery of the economy after its collapse in the first weeks of the war, said Volodymyr Lepushinsky, director of the NBU’s Department of Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis.
“It’s hard for the economy, but it adapts and works. As the main destructive factor – the Russian occupiers – is eliminated, it is recovering. If in March 10 regions and Kyiv were covered by occupation and active hostilities, which produced 55% of GDP, now it is six regions and 20% of GDP, respectively,” he wrote in a column published on the website of the Interfax-Ukraine agency on Friday.
Among the main processes that indicate recovery, Lepushinsky called the almost halving of the number of enterprises that completely stopped their activity – from 32% to 17%, although 60% of enterprises are still operating below the pre-war level of workload.
According to the NBU operational surveys, almost a third of enterprises now do not experience problems with a lack of resources at all, and 48% of those surveyed will have enough available resources for more than a month, thus, compared to March, the share of businesses in which stocks have run out has decreased.
Lepushinsky added that metallurgy is starting to work, mechanical engineering is being activated, the food industry is operating at full capacity in relatively calm regions and is being restored in the liberated territories.
According to him, the labor market is gradually recovering, although the number of job seekers is growing faster than the number of vacancies, which leads to lower wages. “Less wages are an unpleasant consequence of the war. However, now it is important that the labor market is functioning and allows businesses to adapt and find workers,” said the representative of the regulator.
He also pointed out that the National Bank will continue to pause in the publication of the Inflation Report with a macroeconomic forecast until the economic situation normalizes.
“War is almost the only good reason to pause macroeconomic forecasting. Given that additional sources of uncertainty are attached – the duration and consequences of hostilities – it is impossible to make accurate forecasts today,” Lepushinsky explained.
According to him, in order to keep abreast, the NBU has stepped up work on the search and processing of alternative data, as the number of official data has narrowed.
“With the current intensity of events, only the most obvious trends that determine the development of the economy should be determined. After the uncertainty is reduced, forecast scenarios will be “strung” on such trends,” wrote the director of the NBU’s Department of Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis.
He clarified that the National Bank expects that GDP will fall by at least a third this year, and losses could be greater if active hostilities drag on.
One of the reasons for this fall Lepushinsky called the destruction of the most important infrastructure, production, real estate and valuable movable property. According to the latest NBU estimates, the loss of physical capital is about $100 billion, or half of Ukraine’s total GDP for 2021, the column notes.
Among other factors, the author named the lack of internal sources for such a significant increase in capital, although he considers it quite reasonable to hope for external sources both at the expense of confiscated Russian assets and thanks to the support of international organizations, the EU and bilateral assistance from countries.
Lepushinsky pointed out the labor force as another reason, since, according to UN estimates, 5 million people left the country, and at the initial stage of recovery, due to the disruption of communications, the destruction of production and logistics, the demand for labor will be low, which will lead to a high level of unemployment and put pressure on wages.
“However, with the resumption and growth of production capacity, the situation will change: the demand for labor will grow and lead to higher wages. An important role will be played by measures to stimulate the return of migrants to Ukraine, for example, through tax incentives and retraining measures,” the NBU representative said.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) on Thursday, for the fourth time since the beginning of the war, bought government war bonds. This time for UAH 10 billion while earlier the purchases were valued at UAH 20 billion, bringing its portfolio of these securities to UAH 70 billion, follows from a report on its website.
According to the report, this is the third buyout since the beginning of April, the total amount this month has reached UAH 50 billion.
As reported, the total volume of issuance of war bonds is up to UAH 400 billion.
At market auctions since March 1, their sales amounted to UAH 38.07 billion, $93.8 million and EUR 176.5 million.
Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko previously predicted a state budget deficit of $5-7 billion a month for April-May, compared with $2.7 billion in March.
In early April, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) applied to the Cabinet of Ministers with the next developments in order to increase business lending: to expand the portfolio guarantee program for large agricultural enterprises and large enterprises from strategic industries, as well as to increase the term of lending to farmers for the sowing season from six months to a year.
“And if businesses have additional proposals, we urge them to share them with the European Business Association (EBA), we will transfer them to the National Bank,” the EBA said on its website following a meeting with the National Bank this week, which was also attended by the American Chamber of Commerce.
As one of the meeting participants specified to the Interfax-Ukraine agency, among other NBU proposals to the government are the expansion of state support for credit lines, financial leasing, avalized bills, as well as an increase in portfolio guarantees from 80% to 100% of the amount of loans for “red” zones, where the fighting is taking place.
The NBU leadership also said at the meeting that the plans of banks for the second quarter include lending to Ukrainian enterprises for almost UAH 66 billion, including UAH 30 billion for the agricultural industry in the near future, of which UAH 5.8 billion has already been allocated.
The National Bank clarified that since the beginning of the war, the four largest banks have shown an increase in their loan portfolio by UAH 12.5 billion.
According to Interfax-Ukraine, the government has previously criticized the banking system for its unwillingness to take on lending risks, especially in the “red” zones, and proposes to solve this problem in state-owned banks by setting special kpi. In addition, the Ministry of Economy is discussing the idea of appointing a special deputy minister who would oversee this issue, and appointing the former head of the board of Ukreximbank Yevgeny Metsger to this position.
At a scheduled meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) once again decided to keep the key policy rate at 10%, given the ongoing war in the country unleashed by Russia.
“Under the current conditions, the impact of the key policy rate on the functioning of the money market and the FX market remains limited. With this in mind, the key policy rate will stay flat at 10% until monetary transmission channels are effective again,” the NBU said on its website on Thursday.
As reported, in early March, the National Bank, in the face of Russia’s large-scale armed aggression, kept the refinancing rate at 10% per annum, postponing the decision to revise it until the economic situation normalizes.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) will soon consider some relaxations regarding foreign exchange operations, said the head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Kyrylo Shevchenko.
“I think that in the near future we will consider some concessions regarding foreign exchange transactions. In principle, we are already doing them,” he said in an interview with Economic Truth.
The head of the NBU added that today the difference between the official rate and the rate on the black market has begun to narrow quite significantly compared to what it was at the beginning of the war.
“If at the beginning of the war we saw in exchangers that the exchange rate fluctuated around UAH 40/$, today the average cash market rate is 31.63-32.05 UAH/$. This is not a very wide spread and this makes us happy”, he pointed out.
As reported, on February 24, the National Bank suspended the work of the foreign exchange market of Ukraine, except for the sale of foreign currency, and fixed the rate at the level of February 24.
