The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) will again keep the discount rate at 25% at its December 8 meeting, most bankers surveyed by Interfax-Ukraine on Wednesday forecast.
“I am confident that the National Bank will decide on December 8 to keep the discount rate at the current level of 25%, as there is no reason either to raise or to lower it. Following October’s results, inflation accelerated somewhat, but remains within the NBU’s forecasted trajectory. In any case, the level of the discount rate has no direct impact on the inflation processes at the moment,” Ivan Svitek, chairman of the board at Unex Bank, said.
According to him, the increase in consumer prices is mainly provoked by logistical constraints and the destruction of production facilities. Consequently, a further increase in the discount rate will not be able to significantly affect inflation.
“On the other hand, the NBU is also unlikely to lower the rate in the current environment. The monetary transmission effect, which the regulator was counting on by raising the rate to the current level, has not been exhausted yet,” he added.
Svitek noted that the increase in interest rates on deposits of individuals continues and somewhat accelerated in December due to the revision of the profitability of deposits by major players, but now to achieve the goal set by the regulator does not make sense to reduce the discount rate this month.
Konstantin Khvedchuk, strategic development analyst at Pivdennyi Bank, also predicts that the discount rate will remain at 25%.
“While inflation continues to approach 30% y/y and inflation expectations are kept high, it is necessary for the NBU to ensure a comparable value of hryvnia resources in the economy. Therefore, decisions will be made to accelerate a preliminary change of the discount rate to market rates, for example, increase of reserve requirements or issue of term deposit certificates,” he said.
His opinion is shared by Alexey Blinov, head of Sense Bank’s analytical department, who also expects the discount rate to remain at the current level.
Nikolay Voytkiv, director of the Risk Management Department of Accordbank, made the same forecast.
“We do not expect changes in the discount rate, as there were no significant changes in the macro environment over the past month. There is stabilization in the exchange rate, while inflation expectations remain high,” he pointed out.
He added that at the same time, the regulator is likely to reduce the interest rates on certificates of deposit (currently 23% per annum) and their maturity in order to encourage banks to invest in OVDPs.
“The discount rate will remain unchanged in the medium term. Firstly, there are no prerequisites for its revision, as the inflation rate remains high. Second, the NBU has given a guideline that it will not revise it until the first quarter of 2024,” OTP Bank head Volodymyr Mudryy pointed out.
Oksana Shveda, deputy chairman of Credit Dnipro bank, reminded that the Monetary Committee’s tasks include not only the discount rate, but also decisions regarding stimulation of monetary instruments to reach the target. Therefore, according to her, there is a possibility that the NBU will announce decisions on the mandatory reserve requirement rate, which will include current or term accounts in all currencies, at the meeting on 8 December.
Net sales of dollars by the National Bank of Ukraine this week fell to $166.1 million from $295.0 million a week earlier.
According to the National Bank on its website, it bought $16.1 million from November 14 to 18, which is slightly higher than usual purchase volumes during the war ($7-8 million), while it sold $182.2 million, compared to $326.5 million a week earlier.
At the cash market, the hryvnia appreciated by about UAH 0.3 during the week to about UAH 40.25 / $1. The spread between the selling and buying rates remains narrow.
The National Bank’s interventions in October amounted to $2.03 billion, as compared to $2.75 billion in September, $1.33 billion in August, and $1.2 billion in July, and remain far less than in June ($3.96 billion) and May ($3.4 billion).
In total, since the beginning of the year to November 18 inclusive, the NBU bought $3 billion 226.9 million and EUR111.0 million in the market, and sold $22 billion 427.0 million and EUR1 billion 789.1 million.
Since the beginning of the war the purchase of currency reached $2 billion 570.0 million and EUR111.0 million, while the sale reached $19 billion 656.8 million and EUR1 billion 789.1 million.
Ukraine’s international reserves as of November 1, 2022, according to the NBU, amounted to $25 billion 244.2 million (in equivalent), which is 5.5% more than at the beginning of October.
The National Bank of Ukraine’s net sales of dollars this week decreased to $295.0mn from $393.9mn a week earlier.
According to the National Bank on its website, it bought $31.5 million from November 7 to 11, which is markedly more than the usual volume of purchases during the war ($7-8 million), while it sold $326.5 million, compared to $410.2 million a week earlier.
On the cash market, the hryvnia weakened by about 0.2 UAH per week, to about UAH 40.55/$1. However, the spread between the buying and selling rates remains narrow.
In October, the volume of interventions of the National Bank amounted to $2.03 billion, compared to $2.75 billion in September, $1.33 billion in August and $1.2 billion in July, and remains much less than in June ($3.96 billion) and May ($3.4 billion).
In total, since the beginning of the year to November 11 inclusive, the NBU bought $3 billion 210.8 million and EUR111.0 million in the market, while it sold $22 billion 244.8 million and EUR1 billion 789.1 million.
Since the beginning of the war the purchase of currency reached $2 billion 553.9 million and EUR111.0 million, while the sale reached $19 billion 474.6 million and EUR1 billion 789.1 million.
Ukraine’s international reserves as of November 1, 2022, according to the NBU, amounted to $25 billion 244.2 million (in equivalent), which is 5.5% more than at the beginning of October.
Since October 21, Ukrainians have opened 2.5 thousand deposits with the purchase of dollars at the official rate of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) for a period of 6 months, followed by the mandatory sale also at the official rate, the NBU press service reported on Friday.
According to the release, the average deposit amount is $3.6 thousand, and the total amount attracted as of November 1 on such deposits amounted to $9 million.
“The NBU does not have targets for attracting such deposits by banks. Our goal is to stabilize and improve exchange rate expectations, reduce pressure on the hryvnia cash exchange rate and protect international reserves,” the press service of the head of the monetary policy department of the department of monetary policy and economic analysis of the National Bank Mikhail Rebrika.
As reported, since October 21, the NBU, in cooperation with banks, has allowed individuals to buy US dollars at the official NBU rate, followed by their placement on a fixed-term deposit in a bank and the mandatory resale of the purchased currency upon the expiration of the deposit at the official rate.
According to the report, the amount and number of such deposits for one client of the bank are not limited, and the interest rate on the deposit will be set in accordance with the interest rate policy of banks, the deposit term is from six months with the possibility of prolongation, but without the right of early termination.
Earlier, from July 21, the National Bank allowed the purchase of non-cash currency at commercial rates to place it on deposit for at least three months, but without the obligation to sell such currency upon completion of the deposit. At the same time, the volume of such deposits was initially limited to UAH 50,000, and recently the ceiling was raised to UAH 100,000 per month.
The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) has put three defendants in the Ukrgasbank (Kyiv) case on the wanted list, including the former head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Kirill Shevchenko.
“NABU is looking for three officials of JSB Ukrgasbank involved in the theft of more than UAH 200 million. We are talking about the ex-chairman of the board of Ukrgasbank, one of the deputies of Ukrgasbank and the deputy director of the department for working with corporate VIP clients of this state institution,” the press reports. – NABU service.
It is specified that, in addition to Shevchenko, the former head of the NBU, who previously held the post of chairman of the board of Ukrgasbank, Denis Chernyshov, deputy head of the board of the bank, and Olena Khmelenko, deputy director of the department for working with corporate VIP clients, have been put on the wanted list.
It is noted that they were notified of suspicion in early October, but in a special order, since the location of these persons was unknown. Since then, the suspects have ignored calls to the investigator, which is why they were put on the wanted list.
As reported, the anti-corruption authorities of Ukraine exposed the illegal activities of officials of the state-owned Ukrgasbank. Five main defendants in this crime were notified of suspicion, among which was Shevchenko.
According to the prosecutor’s office, it was established that the management of Ukrgasbank, having information about banking service agreements concluded with large customers, used it to steal money.
“For this purpose, bank officials ensured the conclusion of fictitious contracts with individuals and legal entities, who allegedly, being the bank’s “agents”, attracted large clients to it. For such “agent services”, the bank illegally paid “remuneration” to these persons on a monthly basis, “they explained then in the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office.
The investigation found that during 2014-2020. under this scheme, 52 fictitious agents were groundlessly transferred funds from the state bank in the amount of more than UAH 206 million.
On October 4, Shevchenko announced his resignation from the post of head of the NBU for health reasons. The Rada appointed him to this seven-year term on July 16, 2020, before that he headed the board of the state-owned Ukrgasbank.
On October 7, 2022, the Verkhovna Rada appointed Andriy Pyshny, ex-head of Oschadbank, to the post of head of the NBU.
