Oil prices jumped on Monday amid an attack by the radical Palestinian group Hamas on Israel.
The escalating situation in the Middle East poses a risk of a reduction in oil supplies from the region, Market Watch notes.
“Historical analysis shows that oil prices tend to rise steadily in the wake of crises in the Middle East,” said Stephen Innes, managing director of SPI Asset Management.
The cost of December futures for Brent crude oil on the London ICE Futures exchange at 8:15 a.m. on Monday is $87.24 per barrel, which is $2.66 (3.14%) higher than at the close of the previous session. On Friday, the price of these contracts increased by $0.51 (0.6%) to $84.58 per barrel.
Futures for WTI for November in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have risen by $2.84 (3.43%) to $85.63 per barrel by this time. As a result of the previous trading, the value of these contracts increased by $0.48 (0.6%) to $82.79 per barrel.
On Saturday, rocket attacks were launched from the Gaza Strip on the southern and central regions of Israel. Dozens of Palestinian militants on trucks and paragliders infiltrated Israel from the Gaza Strip.
According to recent reports, the number of people killed in Israel from attacks by fighters of the radical Palestinian group Hamas has exceeded 600, The Times of Israel reported on Sunday. Among the dead are civilians and dozens of police and military personnel. In addition, 2048 people were injured. Israeli authorities believe that Palestinian militants have taken at least a hundred hostages on Israeli territory and taken them to Gaza.
The Israeli Defense Forces announced the launch of Operation Iron Swords in response to large-scale Hamas attacks. The Israeli authorities officially put the country in a state of war.
The Wall Street Journal reported, citing informed sources, that Hamas’s current actions against Israel were planned in advance with the assistance of Iran.
If Iran’s involvement is confirmed, the United States may tighten control over compliance with sanctions on oil exports from the country, Market Watch notes.
Last week, Brent fell by 8.3% and WTI by 8.8%.
Oil prices are recovering on Friday after updating their lows since August in the previous session.
The cost of December futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 8:09 a.m. on Friday is $84.2 per barrel, which is $0.13 (0.15%) higher than at the close of the previous session. On Thursday, the price of these contracts fell by $1.74 (2%) to $84.07 per barrel, the lowest since August 24.
Futures for WTI for November in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have risen by $0.21 (0.26%) to $82.52 per barrel by this time. At the end of the previous session, the value of these contracts decreased by $1.91 (2.3%) to $82.31 per barrel, the lowest since August 30.
The day before, oil fell in price on the prospects of weakening global demand, which outweighed concerns about limited supply. In particular, data from the U.S. Department of Energy on Wednesday showed a significant decline in demand for gasoline. Its stocks jumped by 6.48 million barrels in the United States last week, the ministry said. At the same time, oil reserves decreased by 2.22 million barrels.
The consensus forecast of analysts polled by S&P Global Commodity Insights was for gasoline reserves to remain unchanged and for oil stocks to decline by 1.4 million barrels.
Oil prices were stable in trading on Wednesday before the meeting of the OPEC+ Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC).
The price of December futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 8:10 a.m. on Wednesday is $90.88 per barrel, which is $0.04 (0.04%) lower than at the close of the previous session. On Tuesday, the price of these contracts increased by $0.21 (0.2%) to $90.92 per barrel.
November futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell by $0.02 (0.02%) to $89.21 per barrel by this time. As a result of previous trading, the value of these contracts increased by $0.41 (0.5%) to $89.23 per barrel.
The JMMC meeting, which will assess the situation on the global oil market, will be held online on Wednesday.
Traders’ attention is also focused on the weekly report of the US Department of Energy on energy reserves in the country, which will be released at 17:30 pm.
Experts surveyed by S&P Global Commodity Insights, on average, predict a 1.4 million barrel decline in US oil inventories last week. They also expect distillate stocks to fall by 1.6 million barrels, while gasoline stocks will remain unchanged.
Estimates by the American Petroleum Institute (API), released on Tuesday night, showed a 4.21 million barrel decline in US oil inventories in the week ended September 29.
Benchmark oil prices are falling on Tuesday morning after hitting three-week lows the day before.
The price of December futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 8:17 a.m. is $89.74 per barrel, which is $0.97 (1.07%) lower than at the close of the previous session. On Monday, these contracts fell by $1.49 (1.6%) to $90.71 per barrel.
Quotes for November futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time decreased by $0.74 (0.83%) to $88.08 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, they fell by $1.97 (2.2%) to $88.82 per barrel.
The main negative factor for commodity markets on Monday was the strengthening of the dollar on the news that the US government had managed to avoid a shutdown, as well as fears of new Federal Reserve rate hikes. The ICE index, which measures the dollar against six major world currencies, is at its highest level since last November.
“The decline in oil prices has very little to do with fundamentals and is driven by rising US government bond yields and a stronger dollar,” wrote Warren Patterson of ING. – “I think that the quotes have the potential for further growth.
Oil grew strongly in the summer and is still supported by concerns about fuel supply on the global market, said Colin Czeszynski, senior market strategist at SIA Wealth Management. “At the same time, from a technical point of view, oil is overbought, and it seems to be entering a correction phase,” he added.
Investors’ attention is now focused on the meeting of the OPEC+ Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which will be held on Wednesday.
Oil prices are slightly rising in trading on Monday.
The cost of December futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 8:15 a.m. on Monday is $92.32 per barrel, which is $0.12 (0.13%) higher than at the close of the previous session. On Friday, the price of these contracts fell by $0.9 (1%) to $92.2 per barrel.
Futures for WTI for November in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by $0.14 (0.15%) to $90.93 per barrel by this time. As a result of the previous trading, the value of these contracts decreased by $0.92 (1%) to $90.79 per barrel.
Concerns about a potential supply shortage in the market supported oil prices in September. Many analysts are still confident that prices will continue to move up to $100 per barrel, Market Watch notes.
Brent rose by 9.7% last month and by 27.3% in the third quarter, while WTI rose by 8.6% and 28.5%, respectively.
“The impetus for price growth, driven by fears of a supply shortage in the market, had exhausted itself by the end of last week,” said Vanda Insights founder Vandana Hari. – “Now we are likely to see a consolidation phase until new market drivers emerge.
This week (October 2-5), the 27th ADIPEC 2023 International Oil and Gas Exhibition and Conference will be held in Abu Dhabi (UAE), which may give new signals about what to expect in the oil market in the near future. Among the speakers at the conference are OPEC Secretary General Haisam al-Ghais and UAE Energy Minister Suheil al-Mazroui.
Benchmark oil prices continue to rise Wednesday morning after climbing the previous day, driven by reduced concerns about the global economy and growing worries about fuel shortages on the world market.
The price of November futures for Brent on the London-based ICE Futures exchange at 8:16 a.m. Wednesday is $94.91 per barrel, up $0.95 (1.01%) from the previous session’s close. On Tuesday, these contracts rose by $0.67 (0.7%) to $93.96 per barrel.
Quotes of futures for WTI crude oil for November at the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by the specified time rose by $0.96 (1.06%) and amounted to $ 91.35 per barrel. At the end of the last session they rose by $0.71 (0.8%) – to $90.39 per barrel.
Oil is supported by fears that demand will greatly exceed supply, which intensified after the decisions of Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend voluntary production cuts.
“It seems nothing can derail the oil price rally,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. – Energy traders are quick to recognize the bullish trend, and it will take much more than a strong dollar and weakening demand to break it.”
Market participants are also evaluating signals about changes in U.S. energy inventories.
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), last week oil reserves in the States increased by 1.59 million barrels. A week earlier, the reserves fell by 5.25 million barrels.
The official data from the Energy Department will be released at 5:30 p.m. Q1 on Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Commodity Insights forecast that the data will indicate a reduction in oil reserves by 320 thousand barrels, gasoline – by 120 thousand barrels, distillates – by 1.3 million barrels.
