Benchmark oil prices, which ended last week at their highest levels this year, are little changed on Monday morning.
The price of November futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 8:08 a.m. is $84.53 per barrel, which is 6 cents (0.07%) higher than at the close of the previous session. Last Friday, these contracts rose by $1.72 (2%) to $88.55 per barrel.
Quotes for WTI futures for October in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time increased by 9 cents (0.11%) to $85.64 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, they rose by $1.92 (2.3%) to $85.55 per barrel.
Over the past week, Brent rose in price by 5.5%, WTI by 7.2%, and the two brands ended trading on Friday at their highest levels since November 17 and 16, 2022, respectively.
The quotes were supported by fears of a reduction in supply in the market, as well as positive statistics from China.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in China’s manufacturing industry in August updated its highest level since February, Caixin Media Co. reported on Friday, which calculates the indicator. The index rose to 51 points from 49.2 points in July. A value above 50 points indicates an increase in activity in the sector.
Traders also expect Saudi Arabia to extend its voluntary production cuts by 1 million barrels per day to October.
In addition, the latest US data is “relatively balanced and generally in line with expectations that the peak level of Federal Reserve interest rates has already been reached, which in turn spurs hopes for a soft landing for the US economy,” said Tyler Ritchie of Sevens Report Research.
Meanwhile, data from the oilfield services company Baker Hughes showed that over the past week, the number of operating oil rigs in the United States remained unchanged at 512 units, the lowest since February 2022. The number of gas rigs decreased by 1 to 114.
PJSC “Ukrnafta” in January-July 2023 increased production of oil with condensate by 4.5% (by 36 thousand tons) compared to the same period of 2022 – up to 828 thousand tons, the press service of the company reported.
The average daily production of oil with condensate for seven months of 2023 was 3.9 thousand tons, 2022 – 3.7 thousand tons, 2021 – 4 thousand tons.
Ukrnafta’s gas production in January-July 2023 increased by 6.8% (by 40 million cubic meters) compared to the same period of 2022 – to 628 million cubic meters.
Average daily gas production for seven months of 2023 amounted to 2.964 million cubic meters, 2022 – 2.772 million cubic meters, 2021 – 3.015 million cubic meters.
According to the press-service, for seven months of the current year 65 workovers, 18 stimulations, 15 stimulations without workover crews, 13 coiled tubing operations were carried out at the company’s fields. 21 wells were brought out of inactivity.
“Cumulatively, these and other measures brought additional 52 thousand tons of oil and 28 million cubic meters of gas,” the company said.
In addition, Ukrnafta in January-June 2023 transferred 12.32 billion UAH of taxes to budgets of all levels, including 1.187 billion UAH of income tax for the first quarter and 2.077 billion UAH – for the second quarter.
As reported, Ukrnafta, which has been fully under state control since the end of 2022, has set a strategic goal to double its oil and natural gas production to 3 million tons and 2 billion cubic meters respectively by 2027. In 2023, the company plans to increase oil production by 5.8% (up 0.077 million tons) year-on-year to 1.447 million tons, and gas production by 0.3% (up 0.003 million cubic meters) to 1.04 billion cubic meters.
On November 5, 2022, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief decided to seize the shares of Ukrnafta and Ukrtatnafta (except for the controlling and blocking stakes of Naftohaz Ukrainy, respectively) as state property during martial law. Prior to the seizure, the structures of Igor Kolomoisky and Hennadiy Bogolyubov owned about 42% of Ukrnafta and, together with other partners, a controlling stake in Ukrtatnafta.
As of the end of March 2023, Ukrnafta had 89 fields with 23 million tons of proven reserves and with 1,806,000 active oil wells and 152 gas wells. The company operates 537 gas stations, of which 28 have been modernized. Sales at them this year are expected to reach 350,000 tons, or about 7% of the market. Last year, wholesale and retail sales of petroleum products totaled 1.665 million tons.
At the end of June 2023, the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine (AMCU) allowed Ukrnafta to take control of stakes in the authorized capitals of Ukrnaftoburnia, Sakhalinskoye, Sirius-1, and East Europe Petroleum, which operate in the Sakhalin gas condensate field. In general, the Sakhalin field will produce 844.3 million cubic meters of gas and 86 thousand tons of oil and condensate in 2020 and 789.5 million cubic meters and 80.8 thousand tons in 2021.
condensate, GAS, OIL, UKRNAFTA
Benchmark oil prices continue to rise on Wednesday afternoon amid concerns over Hurricane Idalia and the situation in Gabon.
The price of October futures for Brent on the London-based ICE Futures exchange at 14:29 Q2 is $86.02 per barrel, up $0.53 (0.62%) from the previous session’s close.
Quotes of futures for WTI crude oil for October at the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by the specified time increased by $0.56 (0.69%) and amounted to $81.72 per barrel.
Tropical Storm Idalia strengthened to a hurricane the day before, the National Hurricane Warning Service (National Hurricane Center, NRC) of the United States reported. On Wednesday, it was assigned category three on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Meteorologists expect Idalia to further strengthen to an “extremely dangerous” category four storm. It is forecast to cause a dangerous rise in ocean levels and heavy downpours.
The Gulf of Mexico, where the hurricane is raging, accounts for about 15% and 5% of all U.S. oil and gas production, respectively, according to the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Market participants are also assessing signals about changes in energy stocks in the States and following the situation in Gabon, where a group of military officers announced the deposition of President Ali Bongo Ondimba, who has been in power for 14 years and was re-elected for a third term on Saturday.
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), oil inventories in the States collapsed by 11.5 million barrels last week.
Official data from the U.S. Department of Energy will be released at 5:30 p.m. Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Commodity Insights forecast that the data will indicate a reduction in oil stocks by 5.2 million barrels, gasoline – by 600 thousand barrels, distillates – by 1.4 million barrels.
Meanwhile, analysts still see no signs of disruptions in oil production in Gabon, a member of OPEC, writes MarketWatch.
Benchmark oil prices are slightly rising on Monday morning. Last Friday, quotes rose, but ended in the red for the second week in a row.
The price of October futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 8:19 a.m. is $84.53 per barrel, which is 5 cents (0.06%) higher than at the close of the previous session. Last Friday, these contracts rose by $1.12 (1.3%) to $84.48 per barrel.
Quotes for WTI futures for October in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time increased by 11 cents (0.14%) to $79.94 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, they rose by $0.78 (1%) to $79.83 per barrel.
Last week, Brent fell by 0.4% and WTI by 1%.
Oil market participants are evaluating the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. According to him, the Fed is not done fighting high inflation and may raise interest rates again if necessary.
“We stand ready to raise rates even higher if necessary, and we intend to maintain a restrictive monetary policy until we have confidence that inflation is moving steadily downward toward our target,” he said.
Meanwhile, the Chinese authorities have announced new measures to support the economy, which relate to the housing market and the stock market.
“The news of further stimulus in China has provided additional support,” said Warren Patterson of ING Groep NV. – “However, prices are likely to remain in a certain range in the short term, given the continuing concerns about shrinking demand and rising supply.
Meanwhile, data from the oilfield services company Baker Hughes showed that over the past week, the number of operating oil rigs in the United States decreased by 8 units to 512, which is the lowest since February 2022.
Oil prices rise on Friday morning, but end in the negative for the second week in a row on signals of weak demand in China and expectations of further tightening of monetary policy in the United States.
Traders’ attention on Friday is focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at an economic symposium in Jackson Hole.
It is believed that he will outline in his speech what factors the Fed will consider when deciding when to finalize the rise in the benchmark interest rate and when it is time to start lowering it.
October Brent crude futures on the London-based ICE Futures exchange at 8:15 a.m. Q4 on Friday stand at $83.63 per barrel, up $0.27 (0.32%) from the previous session’s closing price. On Thursday, these contracts rose $0.15 (0.2%) to $83.36 per barrel.
The price of WTI oil futures for October at the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) increased by $0.28 (0.35%) to $79.33 per barrel. At the end of previous trading, the cost of these contracts rose by $0.16 (0.2%), to $79.05 per barrel.
Since the beginning of this week, Brent has fallen in price by 1.4%, WTI – by 2.4%.
Citigroup analyst Ed Morse said in an interview with Bloomberg on Thursday that key OPEC members may have to further reduce oil production as members of the organization, who have struggled with production in recent years, have begun to ramp it up.
Iran, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, Libya and Venezuela will increase production by a total of 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year and at least the same amount next year, Citi said. This will be enough to meet oil demand, Morse noted.
As a result, Saudi Arabia and a number of other states will have to further reduce production, which could become a serious problem for them, the expert said.
Benchmark oil prices are little changed on Thursday morning after declines in the previous three sessions.
The price of October Brent futures on London’s ICE Futures exchange is at $83.2 per barrel by 8:09 a.m. Q4, down 1 cent (0.01%) from the previous session’s close. On Wednesday, these contracts fell in price by $0.82 (1%) – to $83.21 per barrel.
Quotes of futures for WTI crude oil for October at the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by the specified time decreased by 5 cents (0.06%) and amounted to $78.84 per barrel. At the end of the last session they fell by $0.75 (0.9%) – to $78.89 per barrel.
The day before, Brent ended trading at the lowest since August 2, WTI – since July 26.
Commercial oil inventories in the U.S. last week decreased by 6.13 million barrels, according to the weekly report of the country’s Energy Department. Experts surveyed by Bloomberg expected a decrease in oil reserves by 3 million barrels.
Meanwhile, commercial reserves of gasoline increased by 1.47 million barrels, distillates – increased by 945 thousand barrels. Analysts predicted a decrease in gasoline reserves by 481 thousand barrels and an increase in distillate reserves by 698 thousand barrels.
Inventories at the Cushing terminal, where NYMEX-traded crude is stored, fell 3.13 million barrels after dropping 837,000 barrels a week earlier.
“The data pointed to a sharp drop in oil inventories overall and also at the Cushing terminal,” Tariq Zahir, managing partner at Tyche Capital Advisors, told MarketWatch. According to him, the decline in quotations observed in recent days may be replaced by growth amid production cuts in Saudi Arabia and storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico.
