Oil analysts still expect oil prices to recover to almost $100 per barrel by the end of the year, despite the recent drop in quotations to January lows on concerns about global fuel demand.
The price of Brent will rise to just above $99 a barrel in the fourth quarter, according to a poll of analysts conducted by The Wall Street Journal. On Thursday, this variety is trading at around $88 per barrel.
North American oil WTI, according to the consensus forecast, will rise to about $95 per barrel from the current $80.9 per barrel.
Analysts generally believe that both brands will hold at these levels until mid-2023, and then rise slightly by the end of the year: Brent to $101 per barrel, WTI to $98 per barrel.
All interviewed experts are confident that the average cost of Brent in October-December will be at least $95 per barrel, except for Citi analysts – they adhere to the most pessimistic forecast and believe that North Sea oil will cost an average of $85 in the fourth quarter. The bank is also waiting for quotes to fall to $74 by the end of 2023, according to a WSJ survey.
Analysts believe that the expected reduction in OPEC + production will provide serious support to the oil market until the end of the year. In addition, the entry into force of European sanctions on Russian fuel could provoke a decrease in global supply by 1.5 million barrels per day, economists at Societe Generale said.
Oil prices will stabilize during trading on Wednesday afternoon after falling in the morning.
The cost of November futures for Brent crude on the London ICE Futures exchange by 14:50 UTC on Wednesday is $86.37 per barrel, which is $0.1 (0.12%) higher than the closing price of the previous session.
The price of futures for WTI oil for November in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by this time by $0.23 (0.29%), to $78.73 per barrel.
The rise of the US dollar, which resumed on Wednesday, has a negative impact on the market. The appreciation of the dollar against the backdrop of prospects for tightening US monetary policy leads to the fact that the purchase of commodities becomes less attractive for holders of other currencies.
Investors are also concerned about a potential decline in oil demand due to the risks of a global economic recession amid rising interest rates by the world’s central banks. Analysts at Goldman Sachs downgraded their forecast for oil prices for next year to $108 per barrel from $125 per barrel earlier.
Meanwhile, traders remain concerned about the prospects for supply, which is associated with the suspension of production in the Gulf of Mexico due to the approaching Hurricane Ian. The US National Hurricane Center expects Ian to reach Florida as early as Wednesday.
Due to the approach of the hurricane, Chevron and BP announced the suspension of four production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Market attention is gradually shifting to the upcoming meeting of the OPEC + alliance, which will be held on October 5. Analysts believe that the alliance may decide to actively cut oil production due to falling prices.
Oil prices picked up a steady pace of growth on Tuesday afternoon on concern due to reduced supply on the market.
The price of November futures for Brent crude on the London ICE Futures exchange by 14:35 Moscow time on Tuesday is $85.11 per barrel, which is $1.05 (1.25%) higher than the price at the close of the previous session.
The price of futures for WTI oil for November in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by this time by $0.91 (1.19%), to $77.62 per barrel.
Traders are monitoring the situation in the Gulf of Mexico in connection with the growing strength of Hurricane Yan. The US National Hurricane Center expects Yan to reach Florida by the middle of this week.
Chevron Corp. announced the suspension of two production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico due to the hurricane. The total volume of oil production from these two platforms is about 120,000 barrels per day.
British BP also intends to close two platforms in the region, each of which produces more than 100 thousand barrels per day.
In addition, the market takes into account that the OPEC + countries may cut oil production levels in order to spur price increases. Representatives of the association have repeatedly stated this before.
“I think OPEC will have to do this at some point in order to cut supply and push prices up,” said Gary Ross, head of Black Gold Investors.
In order to keep prices at $90 per barrel, OPEC will need to cut production by 1 million b/d, according to Ross’s calculations. In the meantime, OPEC + can cut production by at least 500 thousand b / d, according to UBS.
Meanwhile, the supply of petroleum products may be limited in France. The TotalEnergies refinery in Feisen will remain closed until at least mid-October, French trade union CGT said. The plant, which produces up to 40% of oil products in France, has been closed since September 16 due to technical problems.
In addition, two other TotalEnergies refineries in Fos-sur-Mer and Port-Jerome-Gravenchon have been closed since last week due to a workers’ strike.
Benchmark oil gains slightly on Wednesday morning after dropping to two-week lows the day before as the dollar strengthened ahead of a series of central bank meetings.
The cost of November futures for Brent crude on the London ICE Futures exchange by 8:13 CST on Wednesday is $90.84 per barrel, which is $0.22 (0.24%) higher than the closing price of the previous session. As a result of trading on Tuesday, these contracts fell by $1.38 (1.5%) to $90.62 per barrel.
The price of futures for WTI oil for November in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is $84.09 per barrel by this time, which is $0.15 (0.18%) higher than the final value of the previous session. By the close of the market the day before, the value of these contracts fell by $1.42 (1.7%) to $83.94 per barrel.
“A strong dollar, rising bond yields and concerns about demand amid a global economic slowdown are putting pressure on oil prices again,” said Michael Hewson, senior market analyst at CMC Markets UK. “The market is expecting rate hikes this week from the Fed, the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank”.
“Worry about the lack of supply does not provide the support for quotes, which could be expected, but it also means that we will not see a strong collapse either,” the expert added.
The Fed meeting will end on Wednesday evening, and analysts generally believe that as a result of it, the key interest rate in the United States will be increased by at least 75 basis points.
Meanwhile, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated that U.S. oil inventories rose 1 million barrels last week after rising 6 million barrels a week earlier. The official inventory report from the US Department of Energy will be released at 17:30 CST.
Oil prices almost do not change on Tuesday after the end of trading on the previous day with growth.
The cost of November futures for Brent crude on the London ICE Futures exchange by 8:30 am UTC is $92.08 per barrel, which is $0.08 (0.09%) higher than the closing price of the previous session. As a result of trading on Monday, these contracts rose by $0.65 (0.7%) to $92 per barrel.
The price of futures for WTI oil for October in the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell by this time by $0.06 (0.07%), to $85.30 per barrel. By the close of the market on Monday, the value of these contracts increased by $0.6 to $85.36 per barrel.
The focus of traders this week is a number of meetings of the central banks in the world, including meetings of the Fed and the Bank of England. Fears related to the fact that the rapid tightening of monetary policy by the world’s central banks will lead to a recession in the global economy and a drop in oil demand are one of the key factors pushing down the oil market in recent months.
Meanwhile, a potential increase in supply in the market may also have a negative impact on oil prices. The administration of US President Joe Biden has announced that it will sell an additional 10 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserve, writes Bloomberg.
In addition, the UAE national oil company Adnoc announced measures to increase production to 5 million barrels of oil per day by 2025 from the current 3.4 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, refineries in China have submitted bids to supply an additional 15 million tons of petroleum products as part of the export quota, which could increase the supply of fuel in the world.
Benchmark oil prices rose weakly on Friday morning after a sharp decline the day before, driven by a stronger dollar and worries about global fuel demand.
The price of November futures for Brent oil on the London ICE Futures exchange by 8:08 am UTC on Friday is $91.19 per barrel, which is $0.35 (0.39%) higher than the closing price of the previous session. As a result of trading on Thursday, these contracts fell by $3.26 (3.5%) to $90.84 per barrel.
The price of futures for WTI oil for October in the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is $85.30 per barrel by this time, which is $0.20 (0.24%) higher than the final value of the previous session. By the close of the market the day before, the value of these contracts fell by $3.38 (3.8%) to $85.10 per barrel.
“The dollar has rebounded strongly and is holding near recent highs amid a hawkish Fed policy outlook for the coming months,” StoneX energy analysts wrote in a note.
The September Fed meeting will take place next week, and the market is confident that the central bank will again raise its key rate by 75 basis points to slow down the continued high inflation in the US.
“For the near term, we remain cautious on oil prices as the global economy is under pressure from rising rates, undermining fuel demand,” Peter Cardillo, senior market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, wrote in a note.
