New Zealand has faced an accelerated outflow of population abroad: in the year ending June 2025, 71,800 citizens left the country, the highest figure in 13 years, according to media reports citing official data from Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ). The main destinations for relocation are Australia and the UK. The outflow is accompanied by a weakening economy and rising unemployment to 5.2% in the second quarter, Reuters notes.
At the same time, the total net migration gain (arrivals minus departures, including foreigners) in June 2025 was only +13,700 people, compared to +70,400 a year earlier, according to the latest release from Stats NZ. In other words, the migration “shoulder” supporting demographics has shrunk fivefold.
According to industry analysts, in the 12 months to June 2025, ~138,900 people arrived in the country for the long term, while ~125,200 left, resulting in a modest net gain of +13,700. For comparison, a year earlier, the inflow exceeded +70,000, and the monthly contribution of migration to the population fell from ~6,000 to ~1,000 people.
Experts attribute the increased “outflow” of citizens to a combination of factors: weak GDP growth, a cooling labor market, and improved employment opportunities abroad (primarily in Australia).
The age structure of those leaving is dominated by young professionals under 30, which increases the risk of a “brain drain.” According to media reports, the authorities hope to stabilize the situation by easing monetary conditions and making targeted adjustments to migration policies.
However, the coming quarters are expected to be influenced by high outflows of residents, accompanied by a decline in foreign arrivals compared to the record levels of 2023-2024.
According to Stats NZ, New Zealand’s population was estimated at 5.33 million as of March 31, 2025; further dynamics will largely depend on migration flows.
Net outflow from Ukraine in 2026 will remain at the 2025 level of 0.2 million people. This worsened migration forecast was included by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in its updated macro forecast, which was also worsened due to expectations of a longer war.
“Given the slow normalization of economic conditions, estimates of migration flows in the coming years have been worsened. It is expected that in 2026, the outflow of migrants will continue at a similar pace to the current one (about 0.2 million people), while the April forecast predicted the return of 0.2 million people,” the National Bank’s inflation report published on its website says.
“Net returns will only begin in 2027 (about 0.1 million people, compared to 0.5 million in the previous forecast),” the NBU added.
At the same time, it left its assumptions for 2025 unchanged: a net outflow of about 0.2 million people is expected.
The NBU report notes that the risks of increased combat activity and shelling of rear regions, occupation of new territories, or a significantly longer war remain significant. If these risks materialize, migration outflows will intensify.
“The active policy of recipient countries’ governments to retain Ukrainians, especially those involved in the labor market, is also a negative risk for the migration forecast,” the National Bank adds.
According to the updated forecast, 5.8 million Ukrainians will remain abroad this year, 6 million next year, and 5.9 million in 2027.
At the same time, an alternative forecast, which assumes a faster end to the war, predicts that next year the number of Ukrainians abroad will fall to 5.6 million, and in 2027 to 5.1 million, which is in line with the April forecast.
As reported, the National Bank of Ukraine worsened its macroeconomic forecast in July: in 2025, economic growth will be 2.1% instead of the previously expected 3.1%, and in 2026-2027, it will be 2-3% instead of 3.7-3.9%.
