The average price of pork on supermarket shelves in July amounted to 193.3 UAH/kg, which is 0.8% or 1.5 UAH/kg higher than in June, according to the Ukrainian Pig Association (UPA).
“The price of the seasonally popular position – pork neck – increased most noticeably (by 3.3%). Pork tenderloin and steak went up by 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively, while the change in prices for shoulder and loin was limited to 1% and 0.8%. Brisket and thigh, on the contrary, became more affordable (-2.6% and -1.7%), which slightly slowed down the growth of average pork prices,” analysts said.
According to experts, although the demand for pork remains sensitive to changes in prices on the shelves, their fluctuations in July were insignificant, and other factors influenced the dynamics of trade.
“Suppliers to retail chains and specialized meat shops experienced a slowdown in sales during the month due to prolonged power outages and high temperatures. At the same time, they noted a revival in demand as the power supply stabilized and temperatures dropped. An additional factor that supports consumer interest in this type of meat is that in July, chilled pork semi-finished products cost an average of 6% cheaper than a year ago, while chicken, on the contrary, rose by 4%,” the industry association summarized.
Exports of Ukrainian pork increased by 36% in July 2024, while imports decreased by 23.5% compared to June, the Ukrainian Pig Association (UPA) reported, citing data from the State Customs.
“During July, almost 150 tons of pork (UKTZED 0203) were imported to Ukraine, which is 23.5% less than a month earlier. At the same time, the volume of pork exports in the second month of summer amounted to more than 400 tons, exceeding the June figure by more than 36%,” the report says.
According to analysts, pork imports for 7 months of 2024 amounted to 1.78 thousand tons, while exports amounted to 1.64 thousand tons. In currency terms, the difference does not exceed 10%, or $ 0.4 million.
“The average purchase price of pork in July slightly exceeded the June figure, but in general, quotations remain at a fairly low level. On the one hand, this forms an organic entry barrier for imports, on the other hand, it supports the competitiveness of Ukrainian pork in foreign markets,” the experts explained.
According to the USBA, the UAE remains the main foreign market for Ukrainian pork (85.7% of total exports for the period), and its importers are the EU countries (37.8%) and Canada (62.2%).
Ukrainian pork producers increased pork exports in June by 1.5 times compared to May, mainly to the United Arab Emirates, while imports continue to decline, the Pig Producers of Ukraine association reported, citing data from the State Customs Service.
According to the report, the volume of pork imports (UKT ZED 0203) in June amounted to 195 tons, and the average customs value of an imported kilogram was $2.27, which is $0.3 less than in May.
“Pork exports in June were 1.5 times higher: almost 296 tons of pork were exported out of the country during the month, with a total value of about $700. In general, 2024 was a very atypical year for foreign trade in pork, because the gap between the volume of pork imports from abroad and exports of Ukrainian pork is not so significant,” analysts said.
Thus, the total imports in January-June amounted to 1.63 thousand tons, which is 3.5 times less than the volume imported in the first half of 2023, and exports for this period are only a quarter less – 1.2 thousand tons, which exceeds last year’s volumes of shipments to foreign markets, the report says.
In their opinion, the decline in prices in the domestic market observed in the first half of the year is quite natural: a lower domestic price creates a barrier to entry for imported pork and at the same time helps to improve the competitive position of products in foreign markets.
At the same time, despite the divergence of export and import volumes, there is a certain parallel, as the geography in both cases is limited.
“All the pork imported in June came from Canada, while Ukrainian pork was sent to the UAE market. In the first half of 2024, revenues from Canada accounted for 66% of imported pork, and 9 out of 10 kg of pork exported outside the country entered the market of the United Arab Emirates,” the industry association stated.
Prices for slaughter pigs continued to decline in the second half of May and reached 55-57 UAH/kg, which is 4.5% lower than a week earlier, according to the Pig Producers of Ukraine association.
According to the report, most operators in the live market this week purchased animals in the range of 55-57 UAH/kg, although higher and lower quotes were occasionally found. The latter, in particular, mainly concern animals of high weight categories, the supply of which still puts pressure on the overall price situation.
According to experts, higher prices were observed in the western regions, while in other regions quotations tended to reach 55.5 UAH/kg. At the same time, the weighted average market price was fixed at 55.8 UAH/kg.
The expectations of meat processing representatives regarding further price dynamics differ. Thus, some procurers do not rule out further price weakness, citing sluggish sales and supply that exceeds demand. Other operators state that the volumes available for booking are quite moderate, and the average slaughter weight of animals is lower than usual. Some operators expect faster sales with the return of favorable weather conditions for picnics, the industry association explained.
Purchase prices for slaughter pigs in mid-March increased by 4.5-6%, according to the Pig Producers of Ukraine industry association.
“Following the results of last Friday’s trading, operators revised the selling prices of live pigs by an average of 4.5-6% upward. Thus, in all regions of the country, most commercial batches of cuttings this week are purchased at 65-66 UAH/kg, although there are occasional price offers at the level of 67 UAH/kg. The weighted average market price stopped at 65.4 UAH/kg, which is 4.7% higher than the previous week,” analysts said.
As added in the association, the opinions of operators on further price dynamics are typically different. Some meat processors expect a change in the vector of price movement, stating sluggish sales, unfavorable weather conditions for more active consumption and the beginning of the pre-Easter fast. A number of others, on the contrary, note relatively even sales, so they do not expect a significant change in prices.
“We are not talking about a surplus of conditioned pork yet: in some places, there is information about an active supply of large animals from the population and/or small situational farmers, but in terms of volume and quality, according to a number of procurers, such a supply does not compete with industrial pork,” the industry association summarized.
Ukraine in January-June reduced imports of fresh, chilled and frozen pork by 5.5 times, to 5.7 thousand tons compared to the same period last year, the Association “Pig Breeders of Ukraine” (ASU) said with reference to customs statistics.
“Last year there were many incentives to revive import activity: at the beginning of the year – the divergence of domestic and European quotations for pork, in the second quarter – tax incentives for certain groups of importers. This was layered on top of problems related to the disruption of supply chains, in particular the occupation of a large part of the country,” ACU explained.
According to analysts, the current rate of pork imports is the lowest in the last 6 years, it is significantly behind the previous year. Thus, during the first half of 2023, Ukraine imported 5.7 thousand tons of pork from abroad against more than 31 thousand tons in the first half of 2022.
The main reason for the weakening of import activity in the industry association names the strengthening of prices for pork in Europe, which remains the main supplier of these products to Ukraine.
“Although the EU pork market occasionally experiences negative price fluctuations (in particular those recorded in May), they are not protracted and mostly remain at a high level. This significantly limits the capacity of Ukrainian importers and a list of commodity positions, “passable” for the domestic market of meat “- stated in the message.
It is noted that in June 2023, the price of an imported kilogram primarily ranged in the range $2.28-2.99, and the weighted average was 2.56 $ / kg, whereas a year ago the bulk of pork imports came at $ 1.89-2.55 $ / kg, or an average of $ 2.21 / kg.
“Recently, from abroad comes mostly “budget” raw materials, which almost does not compete with domestic chilled pork, while the volume of imports remain quite “modest”, despite their increase in June”, – summed up the association.
