Purchase prices for slaughter pigs in mid-March increased by 4.5-6%, according to the Pig Producers of Ukraine industry association.
“Following the results of last Friday’s trading, operators revised the selling prices of live pigs by an average of 4.5-6% upward. Thus, in all regions of the country, most commercial batches of cuttings this week are purchased at 65-66 UAH/kg, although there are occasional price offers at the level of 67 UAH/kg. The weighted average market price stopped at 65.4 UAH/kg, which is 4.7% higher than the previous week,” analysts said.
As added in the association, the opinions of operators on further price dynamics are typically different. Some meat processors expect a change in the vector of price movement, stating sluggish sales, unfavorable weather conditions for more active consumption and the beginning of the pre-Easter fast. A number of others, on the contrary, note relatively even sales, so they do not expect a significant change in prices.
“We are not talking about a surplus of conditioned pork yet: in some places, there is information about an active supply of large animals from the population and/or small situational farmers, but in terms of volume and quality, according to a number of procurers, such a supply does not compete with industrial pork,” the industry association summarized.
Ukraine in January-June reduced imports of fresh, chilled and frozen pork by 5.5 times, to 5.7 thousand tons compared to the same period last year, the Association “Pig Breeders of Ukraine” (ASU) said with reference to customs statistics.
“Last year there were many incentives to revive import activity: at the beginning of the year – the divergence of domestic and European quotations for pork, in the second quarter – tax incentives for certain groups of importers. This was layered on top of problems related to the disruption of supply chains, in particular the occupation of a large part of the country,” ACU explained.
According to analysts, the current rate of pork imports is the lowest in the last 6 years, it is significantly behind the previous year. Thus, during the first half of 2023, Ukraine imported 5.7 thousand tons of pork from abroad against more than 31 thousand tons in the first half of 2022.
The main reason for the weakening of import activity in the industry association names the strengthening of prices for pork in Europe, which remains the main supplier of these products to Ukraine.
“Although the EU pork market occasionally experiences negative price fluctuations (in particular those recorded in May), they are not protracted and mostly remain at a high level. This significantly limits the capacity of Ukrainian importers and a list of commodity positions, “passable” for the domestic market of meat “- stated in the message.
It is noted that in June 2023, the price of an imported kilogram primarily ranged in the range $2.28-2.99, and the weighted average was 2.56 $ / kg, whereas a year ago the bulk of pork imports came at $ 1.89-2.55 $ / kg, or an average of $ 2.21 / kg.
“Recently, from abroad comes mostly “budget” raw materials, which almost does not compete with domestic chilled pork, while the volume of imports remain quite “modest”, despite their increase in June”, – summed up the association.
Total supplies of fresh, chilled and frozen pork meat in April 2023 were 16% lower than in March and amounted to 424 tonnes, the association Pig Breeders of Ukraine said.
In monetary terms, Ukraine imported $1.03 million worth of pork in April, the industry association cited data from the State Customs Service on Wednesday.
According to analysts, the April figure was the lowest since 2018.
“In contrast to previous years, low import activity has created an atypical lever of support for domestic prices in the pork market, because raw materials from abroad are not yet creating competition to domestic ones,” the association noted.
Analysts explain this trend by the continuing increase in pork prices in the EU, which has lasted since January and, although it slowed down a little in April, but did not stop.
“It is more difficult for domestic importers to find affordable commodity items for the Ukrainian market,” – stated in the association, noting that the average cost of imported pork in April rose to $ 2.4 per kg compared to $ 1.88 per kg in March.
Overall, in January-April 2023 Ukraine received 3.58 thousand tons of chilled and frozen pork meat, which is 4.5 times less than during the same period in 2022.
The total supply of chilled and frozen pig meat in March 2023 from the EU was almost 67% lower than last year, falling to 503 tonnes, the Association of Ukrainian Pig Breeders has reported.
In monetary terms, Ukraine imported $949,000 worth of pork in March, the data of the State Customs Service was cited by the industry association.
According to its analysts, this is the lowest monthly figure since 2018.
“During March, the average price of pork by slaughter weight in the EU was about $2.54/kg. The price of pork imported to Ukraine fell to $1.88/kg, which is 5.7% lower than in February this year,” the association said, explaining the decline in import activity by higher prices in EU countries compared to prices for domestic products.
“Even the absence of import duties has not made European pork more price-competitive compared to domestic pork. As long as this status quo persists, external supplies of pig meat will remain inactive,” the industry association predicted.
In general, in the first quarter of 2023, pork imports amounted to 3,160 tonnes, which is more than 75% less than in the first quarter of 2022, the analysts said.
Ukrainian importers in January-August fully used quotas for duty-free import of pork from the European Union, further import of chilled pork will be subject to a 12% duty, and frozen pork – 10%, this was reported on the website of the Pig Breeders of Ukraine association. “As of September 1, some 20,000 tonnes of chilled and frozen pork from the EU countries were brought to Ukraine. This corresponds to the quota for duty-free supply of pork from the European Union countries established under the economic part of the Association Agreement. Since these limits have been used this year, each next kilogram of European chilled pork will cost importers 12% more due to the duty, and frozen pork meat will rise in price by 10%,” the organization said.
According to the association, there has been some recovery in import activity this year, which confirms the use of the pork import quota in August, while in previous years the import quota was used in November-December.
It clarified that Ukrainian importers have similar agreements on duty-free supplies of up to 14,400 tonnes of pork from Canada (the quota was used by 9%) and up to 1,700 tonnes from the UK (no deliveries from this country were made in 2021).
“If the import of raw meat from these countries becomes economically attractive for the importer, the supply of frozen pork is unlikely to have a significant impact on the domestic pork market. In addition, the expected changes in exchange rates in the fall will also increase the entry barrier for imported raw materials,” the association concluded.
Pork consumption by Ukrainians in 2021 will grow by 4.7% compared to 2020, to 15.5 kg per person per year (excluding fat and offal), which will be the highest result since 2013, when this indicator per capita was 17.9 kg.
This opinion was published on the website of the Association of Pig Breeders of Ukraine with reference to data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
“The increase in pork consumption is determined by several factors, including the growth of domestic production. Pork occupies niches that free up other types of meat, primarily chicken. So, in 2021, the consumption of chicken will decrease by almost 2 kg,” FAO agricultural markets expert Oleksandr Sikachyna quoted in the post.
According to him, the elasticity of demand for meat is slow: consumers need time to change their purchasing habits, so consumption will not be able to quickly respond to high rates of production growth.
