The average employment rate of Ukrainian refugees aged 20-64 in European countries in mid-2025 was 57%, including self-employment and informal work, which is 22 percentage points (pp) lower than the comparable figure for citizens of the host country, according to a UNHCR survey on the integration of Ukrainian refugees into the labor market.
“The results vary significantly: countries bordering Ukraine tend to have the highest employment rates, while Western and Northern European countries show significantly lower rates, even when differences in refugee profiles are taken into account,” the document, which is based on data from 6,817 respondents, notes.
According to the publication, 3% of those aged 20-64 (or 5% of those in work) are self-employed or entrepreneurs.
It is noted that proficiency in the local language is one of the strongest predictors of employment, and a longer stay in the host country is also associated with improved access to the labor market.
According to the data, Estonia and Hungary lead in terms of employment, with 72% and 71% respectively, followed by the United Kingdom (69%), Poland (68%), Bulgaria (67%), the Czech Republic (66%), and the Netherlands (64%).
Spain (61%), Italy (58%), Lithuania (57%), France (53%), Romania (50%), Moldova, Ireland, and Belgium (46% each) are close to the average.
According to the survey, the employment rates of Ukrainian refugees are significantly lower in Sweden (43%), Finland (40%), Denmark and Germany (39% each), Norway (37%), and Switzerland (29%).
“However, the problem of underemployment remains widespread. Nearly 60% of working refugees report that they are working below their skill level, and they are almost twice as likely as citizens of the country to hold low-skilled jobs,” the UNHCR document states.
According to the document, more than a third of refugees with higher education work in low-skilled professions, compared to 7% of citizens of the host country. According to the researchers, this mismatch between skills is likely to be the main reason for the 40% median wage gap between refugees and host countries.
It is also noted that, unlike employment rates, underemployment does not improve significantly over time when language, sector continuity, education, and labor market barriers are taken into account, indicating the presence of structural barriers that require targeted intervention.
According to UNHCR, reducing gaps in employment and productivity will lead to significant macroeconomic benefits: if average national targets are achieved, this could increase annual GDP growth by up to 0.7 percentage points in some countries, especially those with large refugee populations and significant productivity gaps.
Among other findings of the study, adults aged 50-64 are about 10 percentage points less likely to be employed than those who are younger. Men are 7 percentage points more likely to be employed than women. Having a vocational diploma increases the probability of employment by about 5 percentage points compared to those with only a secondary education. However, higher degrees provide only limited additional benefits—about 10 percentage points overall—with little difference between bachelor’s and master’s degrees.
Living with young children under the age of 6 reduces the probability of employment by 11 percentage points, which is consistent with other studies that identify childcare constraints as a significant barrier.
At the same time, living alone increases the probability of employment by 8 percentage points.
Surprisingly, living with elderly people (65+) is associated with a 6 percentage point increase in the probability of employment, suggesting that most elderly people may not require intensive care from household members, but rather provide support with household chores.
In terms of language, respondents who report at least some knowledge of the local language are 13 percentage points more likely to be employed than those who do not know it at all or have only minimal knowledge. It is noteworthy that a higher level of language proficiency does not seem to provide additional advantages, which means that the types of jobs available to Ukrainian refugees (mostly low-skilled) may not require a high level of language proficiency.
Finally, the study notes that there is a clear link between the likelihood of finding employment and the time elapsed since arrival. Although there is no significant difference between arrivals in the last six months and those in the last year, the probability of employment increases by 10 percentage points relative to the baseline for those who arrived 1–2 years ago, by 14 percentage points for those who arrived 2–3 years ago, and by 20 percentage points for those who arrived more than three years ago.
According to updated UNHCR data, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of January 16, 2026, was estimated at 5.349 million (5.311 million as of December 11), and 5.898 million (5.860 million) worldwide.
In Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data for the end of 2025, there were 3.7 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), compared to 3.340 million in July and 3.76 million in April.
The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has estimated the financial needs for assisting Ukrainian refugees in 2026 at $614 million, which is 23.6% less than the plan for 2025 ($803.6 million), according to a publication on the office’s website.
“In 2025, the intensification of hostilities, including increased air attacks and strikes on critical infrastructure, led to significant civilian casualties and new displacements – trends that will continue to shape needs both inside and outside Ukraine in 2026,” the UNHCR states, emphasizing the severity of the problem four years after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
At the same time, according to the publication, last year the level of funding for the Ukrainian refugee assistance plan fell to 43.7% or $351.1 million, compared to 64% or $635.7 million in 2024. This is significantly less than 84% or $924 million in 2023 and 91.7% or $1.1 billion in the first year of Russia’s full-scale aggression.
According to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission report for December 2025, last year was the deadliest for civilians in Ukraine since 2022: 2,514 civilians were killed and 12,142 were injured as a result of war-related violence, which is 31% more than in 2024. By the end of 2025, there were 5.86 million refugees from Ukraine registered worldwide, of whom about 5.3 million were in Europe. Another 3.7 million people remained internally displaced in Ukraine, with 73% of them having been displaced for more than two years.
“According to the Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) for 2026, more than 10.8 million people in Ukraine will need humanitarian assistance and protection in 2026, with many people having been displaced multiple times and their vulnerability exacerbated by the ongoing war,” the document says.
It is estimated that by September 2025, more than 1.4 million refugees from Ukraine will have returned to their places of residence and remained in Ukraine for at least three months, including more than 0.3 million who did not return to their former homes.
“Changes on the front line continue to cause new displacements: from June to December 2025, more than 150,000 people were evacuated from frontline areas with the support of the government or humanitarian organizations, and even more people fled on their own,” the publication says.
It notes that an estimated 2.5 million displaced families in Ukraine still do not have access to adequate housing. At the same time, large-scale Russian strikes on energy infrastructure in the winter of 2025/26 left millions of people without reliable heating, water, and electricity in sub-zero temperatures.
“In refugee-hosting countries, some refugees continue to face barriers in accessing housing, decent work, health care, education, and social protection, while vulnerability continues to deepen over time as the full-scale war continues,” UNHCR adds.
According to the document, the plan for 2026 aims to help 2.1 million people in Ukraine and 482,000 Ukrainian refugees in other countries. Accordingly, the financial needs for assistance within Ukraine are estimated at $470 million, and outside Ukraine at $144 million, of which $64 million is in Moldova, $21.8 million in Romania, and $18.4 million in Poland.
The UNHCR specified that of these 2.1 million Ukrainians within the country, it wants to provide 955,000 with protection services, 652,000 with cash assistance, 325,000 with materials for housing repairs or settlement support, and another 178,000 with basic necessities.
According to the publication, in 2024, the UNHCR’s assistance plan in Ukraine was funded at 44% or $243 million, compared to 57% or $338.5 million in 2024. This led to a reduction in the number of services provided to 1.14 million as of November 2025, compared to 1.6 million for the same period in 2024.
As part of the 2025-2026 winter assistance, as of December 5, 176,000 people received cash support, which is 32% less than in 2024-2025, when 258,300 people received support.
It is noted that UNHCR works in Ukraine with 12 partners, 11 of which are local, and with 39 partners in 11 other countries, 33 of which are local.
Participants in the panel discussion “Challenges of the Ukrainian Labor Market. Mobilizing Human Capital for Sustainable Reconstruction” at the forum on Ukraine’s reconstruction in Bucharest concluded that the country needs a two-pronged policy for sustainable economic recovery: creating conditions for the return of those who wish to do so, while simultaneously supporting the active diaspora as a resource for investment and knowledge transfer.
The panel was moderated by Adam Eberhart, Deputy Director of the Center for East European Studies at the University of Warsaw (SEW UW). The discussion was joined by Svitlana Kovalchuk, Executive Director of the Yalta European Strategy (YES) Bogdan Zavadetchik, President of the Charitable Foundation “Resources and Public Initiatives” in the Chernivtsi region Olena Tanasychuk, representative of the Ukrainian diaspora in the UK at Ealing Community & Voluntary Service (ECVS) Ania Abdulah, and Osamu Hattori, Head of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) office in Ukraine.
According to surveys cited by participants, most Ukrainian refugees would only consider returning if there were reliable guarantees of security and a stable economic situation. At the same time, statistics show that after two to three years abroad, the likelihood of returning decreases sharply due to deeper integration of people into their host countries, particularly through employment, children’s education, and access to social services. “The longer people stay abroad, the more their lives shift—and the harder it is to convince them to start from scratch at home,” Ebergart noted.
Separately, experts noted that the potential opening of borders could trigger a new wave of emigration, particularly among men of conscription age, who are currently restricted from leaving due to mobilization rules. Against this backdrop, participants emphasized the need for policies that, on the one hand, create the conditions for return—through security, jobs, housing, and access to services—and, on the other hand, support a strong and organized diaspora.
The discussion concluded that the Ukrainian diaspora can remain an important resource for the country’s development even without physical return, through investment, professional networks, educational and expert projects. “The question is not only how many people will return, but also how many of them, wherever they live, will remain actors in Ukraine’s development,” Kovalchuk concluded. Participants agreed that a coordinated human capital policy should be one of the key elements of Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction strategy.
The forum “Rebuilding Ukraine: Security, Opportunities, Investments” is being held on December 11-12 in Bucharest under the auspices of the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and is organized by the New Strategy Center. According to the organizers, more than 30 panel discussions and parallel sessions are planned over two days with the participation of representatives of governments, international organizations, the private sector, financial institutions, and experts from Europe, North America, and Asia. The topics of the panels cover security and defense, infrastructure, financing and investment, green energy, digitalization, human capital, and cross-border cooperation.
In September 2025, EU countries adopted 79,205 new decisions to grant temporary protection to non-EU citizens who fled Ukraine as a result of Russian aggression, which is 49% more than in August 2025 and is the highest monthly average of new decisions recorded since August 2023.
“This increase came after the Ukrainian government adopted a decree at the end of August 2025 granting men aged 18 to 22 inclusive the right to leave Ukraine without hindrance,” Eurostat reported on its website on Monday.
According to its data, compared to the end of August 2025, the total number of people from Ukraine under temporary protection increased by 49,560 (+1.2%) to 4,302,160 at the end of September.
In its statistics for August, the agency reported a higher total figure of 4,373,460, but this included data from Portugal and Luxembourg, where there were 65,120 and 3,880 refugees from Ukraine with the corresponding status, respectively.
It is noted that in September, according to available data, the number of people under temporary protection increased in 24 EU countries. The largest absolute increase was recorded in Poland (+12,960; +1.3%), Germany (+7,585; +0.6%) and the Czech Republic (+3,455; +0.9%), while the only decrease was in France (-240; -0.4%).
According to Eurostat data, Germany remains the country with the largest number of refugees from Ukraine in the EU and the world – 1 million 218.1 thousand, or 28.3% of the total number of beneficiaries in the EU.
The top three also include Poland with 1 million 8,890, or 23.5%, and the Czech Republic with 389,310, or 9.0%. Spain with 244,170 and Romania with 192,840 follow with a significant gap.
Eurostat clarified that the data for Spain, Greece, and Cyprus includes some people whose temporary protection status is no longer valid.
According to the agency’s data, compared to the population of each EU member state, the highest number of temporary protection beneficiaries per thousand people at the end of September 2025 was observed in the Czech Republic (35.7), Poland (27.6), and Latvia (25.5), while the corresponding figure at the EU level is 9.6.
It is also noted that as of the end of September 2025, Ukrainian citizens accounted for more than 98.4% of temporary protection beneficiaries. Adult women accounted for 44% of temporary protection recipients in the EU, children for almost a third (31.0%), while adult men accounted for about a quarter (25.1%) of the total. A year earlier, women accounted for 45%, children for 32.3%, and adult men for 22.7%, while at the end of September 2023, adult women accounted for 46.5%, children for 33.7%, and adult men for 19.9%.
At the end of September 2025, there were also more than 100,000 people with temporary protection status in Slovakia (135,770), the Netherlands (130,500), and Ireland (116,350).
Between 50,000 and 100,000 were in Belgium (93,030), Austria (88,860), Norway (80,920), Finland (76,470), Bulgaria (73,200), Switzerland (70,520), and France (54,490) (data on children in France is mostly not included – Eurostat).
Next are Lithuania – 49.32 thousand, Sweden – 47.33 thousand, Denmark – 44.50 thousand, Hungary – 42.01 thousand, Greece – 37.41 thousand, Estonia – 34.96 thousand, Latvia – 31,150, Croatia – 27,840, Cyprus – 24,680, Iceland – 4,000 (data as of the end of February), Malta – 2,390, and Liechtenstein – 0,780.
Eurostat clarified that all data provided relates to the granting of temporary protection on the basis of EU Council Decision 2022/382 of March 4, 2022, which establishes the existence of a mass influx of displaced persons from Ukraine in connection with Russia’s military invasion and entails the introduction of temporary protection. On June 25, 2024, the European Council decided to extend temporary protection for these persons from March 4, 2026, to March 4, 2027.
According to updated UNHCR data, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of October 3, 2025, was estimated at 5.192 million (5.138 million as of September 2), and 5.753 million (5.696 million) worldwide.
In Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data for July this year, there are 3.340 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), compared to 3.757 million in April.
As Serhiy Sobolev, then Deputy Minister of Economy, noted in early March 2023, the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home results in a 0.5% increase in GDP.
In its July inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine worsened its migration forecast: while in April it expected a net inflow of 0.2 million people to Ukraine in 2026, it now forecasts a net outflow of 0.2 million, which corresponds to the estimate of the net outflow this year.
“Net return will only begin in 2027 (about 0.1 million people, compared to 0.5 million in the previous forecast),” the NBU added, confirming this forecast at the end of October.
In absolute terms, the National Bank estimates the number of migrants currently remaining abroad at about 5.8 million.
Source: http://relocation.com.ua/in-september-the-eu-accepted-almost-80000-refugees-from-ukraine/
According to Eurostat, as of the end of July 2025 there are 4,373,455 citizens of Ukraine under temporary protection in EU countries. Over the month their number increased by 30,980 people, that is approximately by 0.71% compared to the June level — the dynamics are moderate but stable, indicating a continuing, though not surging, movement of people in search of safety. The overwhelming majority of beneficiaries of this regime — about 98.4% — are Ukrainians, which makes the group of aid recipients extremely homogeneous and requires focused integration measures.
The distribution by countries remains concentrated: the key burden is borne by Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic. In Germany there are about 1,196,645 people — roughly 27.8% of the total; in Poland — about 992,505 people (around 23%); in the Czech Republic — about 378,420 people (about 8.8%). Taken together this is almost three-fifths of all recipients of protection, therefore it is precisely these economies and their social systems that first react to any changes in inflow: in large agglomerations the issues of housing affordability become acute, the need for school places and language courses grows, and municipal budgets face continuous obligations.
In such conditions, reception policy inevitably shifts to an integration agenda. Coming to the fore are the accelerated recognition of qualifications, intensive language programs, access to kindergartens and schools, as well as reskilling instruments. The labor market becomes the main shock absorber: the faster people move into formal employment, the lower the budgetary burden and the more noticeable the multiplier effect for domestic demand. At the same time, the housing issue remains the key risk: concentration in capital and industrial regions pushes rental rates upward and increases social tension. Effective responses appear to be targeted rent subsidies, accelerated renovation and construction of social housing, as well as a more even distribution of placements among municipalities.
Finally, the predictability of financing and interagency coordination at the EU and national government levels becomes critically important. Even with the current “soft” monthly increase, unreliable sources of funds quickly turn a manageable situation into a problem for local budgets. On the horizon of the coming months, the key indicators of resilience will be the growth rates of protection beneficiaries, the share of those employed, indicators of school and preschool integration, the dynamics of rental rates in concentration regions, and the speed of transition from emergency measures to long-term programs. Overall, the picture of stable but continuing growth with high concentration in Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic requires shifting efforts from short-term aid to systemic integration — precisely this will make it possible to reduce budgetary costs and turn the humanitarian response into a sustainable socio-economic result.
EU, GERMANY, HOUSING, Labor market, MIGRATION, POLAND, REFUGEES, SOCIAL POLICY, TEMPORARY PROTECTION, UKRAINIANS
The majority of German citizens oppose providing Ukrainian refugees with universal social assistance (Bürgergeld), according to the results of a survey conducted by the Institute for Public Opinion Research (INSA) on behalf of Bild.
According to the published data, 66% of Germans surveyed do not believe that all Ukrainian refugees should receive full social assistance, while 17% supported this idea.
In addition, 62% of respondents said that men of conscription age from Ukraine should return home, 18% opposed this, and another 8% said they did not care.
According to the publication, approximately 700,000 Ukrainians living in Germany receive a total of around €6.3 billion in social assistance each year, and only one in three of them has a job.
Against this backdrop, political debates continue in Germany about the appropriateness of payments to newly arrived refugees. In the draft federal budget for 2026, the government plans to save about €1.5 billion, partly by changing the approach to payments for Ukrainians: instead of Bürgergeld, smaller benefits are planned for asylum seekers.
Experts note that this issue is becoming one of the key items on Germany’s political agenda: it concerns both social justice and the country’s immigration policy. The discussion about the role of Ukrainian refugees in German society reflects deeper sentiments about demographic challenges, integration, and support for European solidarity during wartime.
Source: http://relocation.com.ua/germans-oppose-payments-to-ukrainian-refugees-survey-shows/
