Trade in Ukrainian goods in 2025 remained highly concentrated and with a pronounced import bias, according to a study by the Experts Club analytical center on the top 50 trading partners as of December 31, 2025.
As noted in the study, the top ten countries account for about two-thirds of total trade, with China alone accounting for almost a fifth of turnover. Experts Club founder Maxim Urakin emphasizes: “The overall picture is consistent with the aggregated statistics for 2025: Ukraine’s imports are estimated at about $84.8 billion, exports at about $40.3 billion, and trade turnover at about $125.1 billion.”
China has become Ukraine’s largest partner in terms of trade turnover in the TOP-50 sample – $21.04 billion, with imports of $19.23 billion and exports of $1.82 billion, resulting in a negative balance of $17.41 billion. Urakin believes that “there will be no quick solutions to balance the trade deficit with China without strengthening Ukraine’s industrial export positions” and suggests focusing on localizing part of the supply chains for Ukrainian needs, contract manufacturing, and expanding agricultural and food exports with deeper processing.
Poland ranked second in terms of trade turnover with $13.02 billion, followed by Germany with $9.06 billion, Turkey with $8.95 billion, and the US with $5.69 billion. Commenting on the European direction, Urakin draws attention to the risks of regulation: “The risk factor here is not so much economic as regulatory and political… the issue of quotas and restrictions periodically returns to the agenda.” In his opinion, the key to expanding presence in the EU market is “quality of entry” — standards, traceability, certification, and integration into value chains.
The study also notes the role of markets where Ukraine has a positive trade balance, as well as the importance of trade hubs and logistics. In particular, among the areas that could potentially provide rapid growth with reduced logistics costs and stable maritime routes, the countries where exports already exceed imports stand out, as well as European logistics hubs through which part of Ukraine’s flows pass.
Speaking about the prospects for 2026, Experts Club highlights as key factors the conditions of access to EU markets, institutional agreements with regional partners, and logistics, including the security of sea routes. “The most applicable growth points for Ukraine are a combination of markets with an already positive balance and instruments that reduce barriers: agreements, standardization, and logistics,” Urakin concluded.
After signing an agreement with the United States to establish the terms and conditions of the Ukraine Recovery Investment Fund, the Cabinet of Ministers will approve a delegation to draft an international agreement on the Fund, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
“The next steps after the signing are the creation of an appropriate delegation, which will be approved by a government decision, as required by the law of Ukraine on international treaties. The delegation will receive the relevant directives. Next, there will be relevant intergovernmental work between the government of Ukraine and the government of the United States to draft an agreement on the establishment of the Investment Fund for the Development and Construction of Ukraine,” Shmyhal said during an hour of questions to the government in the Verkhovna Rada on Friday, which was broadcast live on YouTube by MP Oleksiy Honcharenko (European Solidarity faction).
The Prime Minister emphasized that all the next steps are clearly spelled out in the law on international treaties.
“The agreement on the creation of the Investment Fund will have the character of an international agreement, so it will be approved by the government and ratified by the parliament. It will describe all the specifics of how the fund will work,” Shmyhal said.
The creation of the Investment Fund is envisaged by the so-called subsoil agreement to be signed on Friday in the United States.
JSC Ukrgazvydobuvannia has discovered a new field in Kharkiv region, getting commercial gas inflow of 249,000 cubic meters a day from a wildcat, the company’s press service has reported.
The press service said that at the stage of geological exploration the possible reserves were 0.3 billion cubic meters (bcm) and prospective resources are estimated at over 1.5 bcm.
The company said that after receiving the deposit use license, the field and the well were launched in short terms – in 17 calendar months.
The press service said that the period from the issue of a license to commercial use of fields is from two to four years. If new licenses are issues, next gas inflow could be seen no earlier than in two years.
Poltava Regional Council for two years refused to approve licenses over 60 times, and the country would not receive around 1 bcm of gas in 2018.
“The development of new fields is a laborious process that requires the consolidation of scientific, engineering and significant financial efforts. The receipt of licenses does not guarantee 100% of the start of economically expedient exploitation of a field, especially since this process is stretched in time, therefore the company constantly announces the current problem regarding delays in the issuance of new licenses that have not been solved for a long time,” Director of Geology of Ukrgazvydobuvannia Myron Kucher said.
