The harvest of corn, according to preliminary estimates of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, in 2024 will be 25 million tons, sunflower – 12 million tons, soybeans – 5 million tons, said Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Vitaly Koval in an interview with Forbes Ukraina.
“Ukraine did not receive about 2% of early grains compared to last year’s harvest. This group did not suffer as much as late crops. Soybeans, buckwheat, corn and sunflower suffered the most. They have a shortfall of about 10-15% depending on the region. However, this is not critical for the food security of the country,” he said.
Koval expressed confidence that in the new season the structure of crops will not change globally compared to last year. At the same time, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy has concerns about winter rape: there is not enough moisture to sow it.
“In total, about 5 million hectares of winter crops will be sown,” summarized the Minister of Agrarian Policy.
The exports of soybeans from Ukraine in the season-2023/2024 reached the record level and amounted to about 3.26 mln tonnes, up 5% from the previous high of 3.1 mln tonnes in 2022/2023 MY, APK-Inform news agency reported.
“The increase in shipments was achieved due to several factors, including the significant increase of the crop harvest in 2023 and the competitive price of Ukrainian soybeans on the global market, particularly in the first half of 2023/24 MY. Thus, in September-February of the last season, the country shipped almost 70% of the total exports of soybeans,” the analysts said.
According to APK-Inform, in 2024/2025 MY Ukraine will export about 3.5 mln tonnes of soybeans, up 7% compared to the last season.
According to them, the increase in exports was mainly due to Egypt (2.1 times more), while shipments to the EU and Turkey decreased by 22% and 26%, respectively.
Experts predict that in the new season-2024/2025, Ukraine has a chance to update the record for soybean exports, given the forecast of an increase in the harvest of this crop to almost 6 million tons, which is 10% more than last year. At the same time, due to the expected increase in global soybean production, it will be harder to compete with prices in the new season, especially in such destinations as Egypt and Turkey.
According to the results of the season-2023/2024, the demand prices for Ukrainian soybeans decreased by an average of $120/ton in line with the global market dynamics and due to the increased competition. Comparing the price levels as of the end of August, this year Ukrainian soybeans of the new harvest are offered to Egypt at $427/ton CIF, while last year in the same period the supply prices on the same basis reached $545-550/ton.
As of June 3, soybean exports from Ukraine slowed down and amounted to only 1500 tons, while significant stocks of 700-800 thousand tons remain in warehouses, according to the analytical cooperative “Start”, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (AAC).
“The soybean market is now in the off-season period, when the activity is significantly reduced. The main liquidity is currently provided by processors who maintain a high level of demand for raw materials. The average purchase price from processors already exceeds 19 thousand UAH/ton, and further price growth can be expected. Soybean exports are expected to remain weak in the coming months. Most of the transactions are made for cash. This also affects the volume of supplies abroad. On the stock market of soybeans, we are likely to see the downward trend reversal and attempts of growth,” the analysts said.
The experts also added that despite the overall weakness of exports, there are positive signals from the Polish market.
“Polish companies are showing considerable interest in Ukrainian soybeans. On the border with Poland, soybean prices are $410-415/ton. In the ports, the conditional prices on CPT basis are about $435-440/ton,” the UAC stated.
In 2024, the production of oilseeds in Ukraine will increase by 19% compared to 2023 to 2.3 mln ha, which will be a record for the industry, APK-Inform news agency reported based on the results of the survey among farmers.
According to the survey, conducted in February-March 2024, 82% of the respondents, who grow soybeans, plan to keep the area under soybeans unchanged, and 16% intend to increase it. The increase will be due to the reduction of the area under winter crops, as well as sunflower or other spring crops.
The soybean area in 2024 may increase to 2.3 mln ha (+19% by 2023), which will be a new record for the industry. Previously, the maximum for this crop was 2.2 mln hectares in 2015, analysts predict.
They also expect the production of soybeans in Ukraine to reach a record level, which, according to preliminary estimates, could reach 6 mln tons, which is 17% higher than last year.
At the same time, according to experts, the area under sunflower is not likely to change significantly: 87% of the respondents who grow the crop plan to keep the area under it unchanged. Those who plan to reduce or increase the area under sunflower mostly reported that it will be at the expense of rapeseed.
“Our estimate of the sunflower acreage in 2024 is still 5.8 mln ha, which is almost at the level of 2023. Under favorable weather conditions, the oilseed harvest could reach 13.9 mln tonnes (+1% compared to 2023), which is still lower than the pre-war figure,” the analysts emphasized.
The area under rapeseed in 2024 is likely to decrease due to the dry autumn, which led some farmers to abandon the winter oilseed planting.
In the survey, 51% of respondents reported that winter rapeseed crops are in good or excellent condition, 43% – in satisfactory condition, and 5% – in poor condition.
The area under spring rapeseed may also increase in 2024 to the record level due to the price attractiveness of this oilseed, but the total area under winter and spring rapeseed, according to APK-Inform preliminary estimates, will decrease by 6%. This figure will still remain quite high compared to previous years, amounting to about 1.4 mln ha. The harvest of this oilseed may decline by 9% in 2024, to 4.2 mln tonnes, APK-Inform summarized.
In November 2023, Ukraine increased the soybean processing to the highest monthly volume since April 2020, which amounted to about 184 thsd tonnes, up 17% compared to October and 43% compared to November 2022, APK-Inform news agency reported.
“Despite the difficulties with the formation of the raw material base of the plants due to the fierce competition with exporters, the main incentive to increase the processing was the high demand for soybean meal on the foreign market,” the analysts said.
According to the report, Ukraine exported 160 thsd tonnes of meal in three months of 2023-2024 marketing year, up 45% compared to the same period of the previous season and the highest for September-November in the last four seasons.
The main importers of Ukrainian soybean meal were Poland with the share of 58% and Hungary with the share of 24%, according to APK-Inform.
Astarta Agro Holding, Ukraine’s largest sugar producer, will resume construction of an additional deep soybean processing line at its Globinsky Processing Plant (GPP, Poltava region) in the fourth quarter of this year, which will allow it to produce up to 100,000 tons of concentrated soy protein per year.
“The project was announced in 2021 at a cost of $50 million, and now it is estimated at about $60 million, taking into account inflation,” said Yulia Bereshchenko, Business Development and Investor Relations Director of the group of companies, at a conference call with investors and analysts based on the company’s results for the first nine months of 2023.
According to her, the investments will be spread over three years – this year and the next two, and the project will be financed mainly from free cash flow.
As reported, Astarta announced the start of construction of this line in mid-September 2021. The GPP itself was commissioned in early 2014, with a design processing capacity of 230 thousand tons per year, and will remain at this level. The plant is capable of producing about 160 thousand tons of high-protein soybean meal, 40 thousand tons of soybean oil, and 9 thousand tons of granulated shell annually. The enterprise also includes storage facilities for finished products and an elevator with a capacity of 42 thousand tons, as well as the necessary engineering, road and rail communications. Before the war, more than 80% of GPP’s output was exported to the EU, the Middle East and the Far East. Most of the soybeans for processing are grown by the agricultural companies of the agricultural holding.
In the fall of 2021, Bereshchennko indicated that the construction of an additional line for deep soybean processing at the GPP would double EBITDA in the soybean segment and increase revenue.
“Astarta is a vertically integrated agro-industrial holding company operating in eight regions of Ukraine. It comprises six sugar factories, agricultural enterprises with a land bank of 220,000 hectares and dairy farms with 22,000 cattle, an oil extraction plant in Globyno (Poltava region), seven elevators and a biogas complex.
In the third quarter of 2023, the agricultural holding earned EUR1.24 million in net profit, down 27.7 times compared to the same period in 2022. Astarta’s revenue decreased by 14.4% to EUR104.75 million, gross profit by 2.7 times to EUR26.96 million, operating profit by 7.6 times to EUR6.79 million, and EBITDA by 42.7% to EUR97.25 million.
Due to significantly better performance in the first half of this year compared to the first half of last year, in the first 9 months of 2023, net profit decreased by 9.8% to EUR 55.97 million, while revenue increased by 14.8% to EUR 392.00 million. The company’s gross profit increased by 3.0% to EUR 151.91 million, while operating profit decreased by 15.9% to EUR 79.91 million and EBITDA by 10.8% to EUR 116.63 million.
