As of February 10, Ukraine exported 78 thsd tonnes of soybeans, its reserves are estimated at 3.4 mln tonnes, which is significantly higher than the previous season, when they amounted to 2.6-2.7 mln tonnes, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk”, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (AAC).
According to analysts, the situation indicates the need to intensify sales in February-April, as in May-June traders will focus on the new harvest of grain and rapeseed.
“We have enough soybeans, and it is too early to worry. However, the demand may decrease closer to spring, which will affect prices. Therefore, it is important to take this factor into account and plan sales accordingly,” they said.
The experts reminded that the situation on the global market also affects Ukrainian exports. In Brazil, harvesting is delayed due to high soybean moisture, which leads to significant losses in the fields. This could change global balances and support prices. In addition, the market is waiting for the updated USDA report, which may adjust the forecasts for production in South America.
“If the crop losses in Brazil and Argentina are confirmed, this could be an additional factor in price growth. Already, the seasonal model shows that in late February and early March we may see the level of $400-405 per ton on a CPT basis, and potentially even $410-415 per ton,” analysts predict.
According to their information, the prices for soybeans on the domestic market of Ukraine are currently stable and amount to $388-393 per ton in ports, 17 500-17 700 UAH/ton at processors.
At the same time, the main restraining factor is the weak soybean meal market, which is why processors cannot actively compete with exporters.
In the coming months, according to analysts, some traders may try to increase margins, especially in May-June, when the focus will shift to the new harvest. “We have already seen similar situations in the market, so it is important to be prepared for possible price fluctuations,” Pusk summarized.
Despite the seasonal decline in global market activity during the holiday season, Ukrainian soybean exporters are maintaining their positions, according to the analytical cooperative Pusk, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
“Despite the difficult economic situation in China, which may reduce soybean imports to 95-100 mln tons, the market is stable. Since August last year, prices on the stock exchange have remained stable, and short-term drops are quickly compensated for. This suggests that the exchange market is currently ignoring global challenges. Of course, high global stocks create uncertainties, but the trend toward price recovery continues. Ukrainian soybean exporters can use this period to strengthen their positions,” the analysts said.
They noted that historically, January, February and March show the upward trend of soybean prices. In this regard, they predict an increase in soybean prices in Ukraine by the end of January.
“We are already seeing an increase in prices: in the domestic market, they have risen by 200-300 UAH/ton, and in foreign currency terms, by $3-5/ton. We can predict that conditional prices on the CPT basis will amount to $400-410/ton in January, and in February-March they will even exceed this level. This is a favorable period for farmers who plan to sell their products,” Pusk summarized.
Ukraine is expected to increase soybean production in 2024.
“Ukroliaprom” estimates the soybean harvest in the season-2024 at 6.1 million tons, which is 28% more than a year earlier. The association attributes such growth to a significant increase in production areas – by 46.6% to 2.66m hectares.
The Ukrainian soybean market is showing outstanding results – exports since the beginning of 2024-2025 marketing year (July-June) amounted to 445 thsd tonnes, which creates preconditions for a new record, according to the analytical cooperative “Start”, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
The analysts emphasized that despite the pace of exports, the Ukrainian market depends on global trends, such as fluctuations in prices for American and Brazilian soybeans.
“Ukrainian soybeans are usually sold at a discount compared to US soybeans, which is about $5-7 per ton. However, now the price of US soybeans is almost equal to the Ukrainian one, which is a favorable signal for domestic exporters. Negative trends in the physical markets, in particular, the fall in the price of soybeans in Chicago, have not yet affected our sales volumes,” the experts said.
They pointed out that seasonal trends indicate a possible increase in soybean prices in December-March, which is traditionally an active period for trade. Prices for soybeans will gradually rise to $420-440 per ton, which is $20-30 more than the current figures, according to Pusk.
“December is always active for the market due to the preparation for the Christmas holidays. Processing companies will increase purchases of soybeans, as most of them have covered their needs only for the first half of December. This creates high demand, which, in turn, will contribute to the price increase,” the experts explained and recommended producers who have the opportunity to postpone sales until February-March to maximize the benefits.
On the domestic market, prices for soybean meal remain low, which limits the ability of processors to set high purchase prices. So far, they are buying soybeans for 17.3-17.5 thousand UAH/t. However, the correlation between the price of soybeans and meal gives us hope for the situation on the Ukrainian market to level off in the coming months, Pusk summarized.
The harvest of corn, according to preliminary estimates of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, in 2024 will be 25 million tons, sunflower – 12 million tons, soybeans – 5 million tons, said Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Vitaly Koval in an interview with Forbes Ukraina.
“Ukraine did not receive about 2% of early grains compared to last year’s harvest. This group did not suffer as much as late crops. Soybeans, buckwheat, corn and sunflower suffered the most. They have a shortfall of about 10-15% depending on the region. However, this is not critical for the food security of the country,” he said.
Koval expressed confidence that in the new season the structure of crops will not change globally compared to last year. At the same time, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy has concerns about winter rape: there is not enough moisture to sow it.
“In total, about 5 million hectares of winter crops will be sown,” summarized the Minister of Agrarian Policy.
The exports of soybeans from Ukraine in the season-2023/2024 reached the record level and amounted to about 3.26 mln tonnes, up 5% from the previous high of 3.1 mln tonnes in 2022/2023 MY, APK-Inform news agency reported.
“The increase in shipments was achieved due to several factors, including the significant increase of the crop harvest in 2023 and the competitive price of Ukrainian soybeans on the global market, particularly in the first half of 2023/24 MY. Thus, in September-February of the last season, the country shipped almost 70% of the total exports of soybeans,” the analysts said.
According to APK-Inform, in 2024/2025 MY Ukraine will export about 3.5 mln tonnes of soybeans, up 7% compared to the last season.
According to them, the increase in exports was mainly due to Egypt (2.1 times more), while shipments to the EU and Turkey decreased by 22% and 26%, respectively.
Experts predict that in the new season-2024/2025, Ukraine has a chance to update the record for soybean exports, given the forecast of an increase in the harvest of this crop to almost 6 million tons, which is 10% more than last year. At the same time, due to the expected increase in global soybean production, it will be harder to compete with prices in the new season, especially in such destinations as Egypt and Turkey.
According to the results of the season-2023/2024, the demand prices for Ukrainian soybeans decreased by an average of $120/ton in line with the global market dynamics and due to the increased competition. Comparing the price levels as of the end of August, this year Ukrainian soybeans of the new harvest are offered to Egypt at $427/ton CIF, while last year in the same period the supply prices on the same basis reached $545-550/ton.
