Goldman Sachs predicts the increase in inflation in Ukraine by 4.1% in 2019 and to 5% in 2020, according to the materials of the bank.
The inflation slowing in Ukraine in 2019 has turned out to be more significant than it was projected in the forecasts of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) published in inflation reports within 2019 (6.3% as of late 2019) and assessments of other expert organizations, the regulator has said in comments on inflation on its website.
The macroeconomic situation allows the Ukrainian economy to grow rapidly in the coming several years, Ukrainian Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk has said.
Ukrainian businesses forecast inflation in 12 months at 7%, which is 0.1 percentage point (p.p.) worse than expected a quarter earlier.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has retained its forecast for real GDP growth in Ukraine for 2020-2021 at 3.5% and 4% respectively, expecting that GDP would grow by 4% in 2020.
According to the data of the electronic census, population of Ukraine totals 37.289 million, minister of the Cabinet of Ministers Dmytro Dubilet reported.
Real wages in Ukraine in December 2019 increased by 11.3% compared with December 2018, while compared with November 2019 they increased by 15.1%, the State Statistics Service has said.
According to the data of the electronic census, population of Ukraine totals 37.289 million, minister of the Cabinet of Ministers Dmytro Dubilet reported. “Ukraine amounts 37.289 million people,” Dubilet said at a press conference in Kyiv.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-November 2019 increased by 5.7% compared to the same period in 2018 (also $8.869 billion in deficit), to $9.374 billion, the State Statistics Service reported.
Exports of goods from Ukraine during the reporting period increased 6.3%, to $45.963 billion, while imports grew by 6.2%, to $55.337 billion, it said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s state budget for 2019 was UAH 78.05 billion with the ceiling set in the national budget being UAH 91.13 billion, while in 2018 the deficit of the national budget was UAH 59.25 billion with the ceiling of UAH 94.1 billion.
Industrial production in Ukraine in 2019 decreased by 1.8% compared to 2018, while in December 2019 from December 2018 the decline was 7.7%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The volume of industrial products (goods, services) sold in Ukraine in January-November 2019 amounted to UAH 2.273 trillion, which is 0.5% more than in January-November 2018 (UAH 2.261 trillion), in particular outside the country to UAH 602.8 billion, the State Statistics Service has said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s state budget for 2019 was UAH 78.05 billion with the ceiling set in the national budget being UAH 91.13 billion, while in 2018 the deficit of the national budget was UAH 59.25 billion with the ceiling of UAH 94.1 billion.
The direct and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine in 2020 will be reduced to 52.4%, Finance Minister of Ukraine Oksana Markarova has said.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has reviewed upwards the expectations for the economic growth in Ukraine in 2019 from 2.5% to 3.3% and from 3% to 3.5% in 2020, according to the EBRD Regional Economic Prospects report.
The growth of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) in July-September 2019 amounted to 4.2% compared to the same period in 2018, while in the second quarter the growth rate was higher and amounted to 4.6%, in the first quarter it amounted to 2.5%.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) estimates GDP growth in the third quarter of 2019 compared to the corresponding period of 2018 at 3.5%, according to the NBU’s inflation report.
The World Bank has improved the forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2019 from 3.4% to 3.6%, World Bank Senior Economist Anastasia Golovach has said.
Renaissance Capital investment company expects the potential growth of the Ukrainian economy thanks to the implementation of declared reforms by 2.5-2.7% and predicts the peak of GDP growth by 3.7% in 2021, while in 2019-2020 it could be 3.4%.
Analysts of JP Morgan have reviewed downwards the forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2019 from 4.3% in their October survey to 4%, and in 2020 they still predicts 3.8% GDP growth, according to their November survey.
The mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), working in Ukraine during November 14-22, has said that it had constructive and fruitful discussions with representatives of Ukrainian authorities, although more discussions in the near future are needed for signing the Staff Level Agreement.
Real wages in Ukraine on October 2019 increased by 9.2% compared with October 2018, while compared with September 2019 they decreased by 0.3%, the State Statistics Service has said.
The surplus of Ukraine’s foreign trade in services in January-September 2019 increased by 7% compared to the same period in 2018, to $4.228 billion, the State Statistics Service has said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-September 2019 increased by 8.4% compared with January-September 2018, to $7.099 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The deficit of the foreign trade balance of Ukraine for January-September 2019 amounted to $4.072 billion, which is 6.4% more than in January-September 2018 (a negative balance of $977.6 million), the State Statistics Service has reported.
Ukraine in January-October of 2019 decreased imports of aluminum ore and concentrate (bauxites) in natural terms by 0.9% compared to the same period in 2018, to 4.039 million tonnes.
Consumer prices in Ukraine in October 2019 increased by 0.7%, as in the previous month, after falling by 0.3% in August, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service has said.
The volume of cash in circulation in Ukraine for the ten months of 2019 decreased by 2.5% and amounted to UAH 390.1 billion by November 1, Viktor Zaivenko, the director of the money circulation department of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), has said at a briefing in Kyiv.
The deficit of the national budget for January-October 2019 was UAH 30.278 billion, while the deficit of the general fund of the national budget totaled UAH 35.373 billion, according to the website of the State Treasury Service of Ukraine.
The tax index of Ukraine in April-October 2019 worsened to 2.9 points out of 5, which is 0.08 points less compared with the figure of the previous six months, according to a study of the European Business Association (EBA).
Ukrainian banks have fully switched to the application of the International Bank Account Number (IBAN), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has reported on its official website.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) plans to launch transactions with derivatives in the second quarter of 2020, according to a presentation of open markets by the NBU on its website.
The total state (direct) and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine in October 2019 decreased 1.4%, or by $1.13 billion, to $81.83 billion, according to data on Finance Ministry’s website.
Finance Minister of Ukraine Oksana Markarova has said that in two years Ukraine seeks to cut state debt to 40% of GDP and will strive for deficit-free budget in the future.
The volume of industrial products (goods, services) sold in Ukraine in January-September 2019 was UAH 1.877 trillion, which is 3.7% more than in January-September 2018 (UAH 1,810 trillion), in particular outside the country some UAH 504.429 billion, the State Statistics Service has said.
Industrial prices in Ukraine in October 2019 decreased by 1.2%, after falling by 1.5% in September and by 0.7% in August, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Ukraine as of November 28 had threshed 74.3 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops from an area of 15 million hectares, exceeding the result of the grain harvest for the whole of 2018, when the gross harvest amounted to 70.1 million tonnes.
Ukraine since the beginning of the marketing year 2019/2020 (MY, July-June) and as of November 27, 2019 had exported 23.78 million tonnes of grain and legumes, which is 35.1% more than on the same date last MY.
Milk production in Ukraine in January-October 2019 (excluding the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea, Sevastopol, and the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) area) decreased by 3.6% compared to the same period in 2018, to 8.4 million tonnes.
The transport enterprises of Ukraine (excluding the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, as well as part of the Joint Forces Operation area) in January-October 2019 increased cargo transportation by 8.8% compared to the same period in 2018, to 561.6 million tonnes, according to the State Statistics Service.
Ukraine’s transport enterprises in January-October 2019 carried 3.539 billion people, which was 5.6% less than in the same period in 2018, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The volume of construction work in Ukraine in October 2019 increased by 14.9% compared to October 2018, while in September 2019 compared to September 2018 this figure rose by 11.3%.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has set a task to by to develop an action plan to increase Ukraine’s position in the Doing Business ranking by the end of this year, as well as begin preparations for large-scale privatization and the introduction of the land market, the president’s press service said.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine (legal entities and individual entrepreneurs) in January-October 2019 in comparable prices increased by 10.2% compared with January-October 2018, the State Statistics Service has said.
Consumer confidence of Ukrainian in October 2019 worsened first after presidential election and the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) equaled 95.9 (the values of indices can vary from 0 to 200), which is 1.6 points lower, than the indicator in September, according to a survey of Info Sapiens posted on its website.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has improved macro forecasts for 2019-2021: the assessment of real economic growth this year has been increased from 3% to 3.5%, in the next year from 3.2% to 3.5% and in 2021 from 3.7% to 4%. The Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture has improved the assessment Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2019 from 2.8% announced in the May forecast to 3.5%, according to the updated macroeconomic forecast of the government.
The conservative estimate of the government provides for 12% GDP growth in Ukraine over three years, and the optimistic one for 17.8%, said MP Oleksiy Honcharenko (the European Solidarity parliamentary faction).
The World Bank, taking into account the results of H1 2019, has improved its forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Ukraine in 2019 from 2.7% to 3.4%, expecting that it would accelerate to 3.7% and 4.2% in 2020 and 2021 respectively.
Ukraine’s GDP growth will reach 3.2% in 2020 with a further acceleration to 3.6% in 2021, Morgan Stanley predicts.
The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine at first reading adopted the draft national budget for 2020 (bill No. 2000), which is based on the spring macro forecast of the Ministry of Economy and provides for budget revenues in the amount of UAH 1.079 trillion, expenses some UAH 1.17 trillion with a deficit of 2.09%.
The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, has endorsed an action plan for the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at a meeting with Chairman of the Japan-Ukraine Parliamentary Friendship Association Eysuke Mori has discussed possibilities for deepening economic and investment cooperation between Ukraine and Japan, the press service of the Office of the President has reported.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-August 2019 increased 16.7% compared with January-August 2018, to $5.843 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The current dynamics of consumer prices allows expecting a decrease in inflation in annual terms in October to below 7%, Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Yakiv Smolii has said.
Actual inflation in Ukraine in September 2019 was lower than the forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) published in the Inflation Report (July 2019), the regulator’s website reported.
Consumer prices in Ukraine after a decline in August by 0.3% and in July by 0.6% grew by 0.7% in September, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service said on Wednesday.
The deficit of Ukraine’s national budget in January-September 2019 was estimated at UAH 20.675 billion, including UAH 26.12 billion, which is the deficit of the budget’s general fund alone, the State Treasury Service reported on Friday.
The deficit of the general fund of the national budget of Ukraine in January-September 2019 amounted to UAH 25.8 billion and was financed by borrowings, the Ministry of Finance said in a press release on the website.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has raised its forecast for the country’s international reserves at the end of this year from $21.7 billion to $22.9 billion, the next year from $22.8 billion to $23.9 billion.
The international reserves of Ukraine in September 2019, according to preliminary data, decreased by 2.6%, to $21.438 billion due to significant repayments on government debt, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said on its website.
Industrial production in Ukraine in September 2019 decreased by 1.1% compared to September 2018 after a decrease of 1.7% in August and 0.2% in July, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Ukraine’s transport companies in January-September 2019 carried 3.167 billion people, which is 5.7% less than in the same period in 2018, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The volume of construction work in Ukraine in September 2019 increased by 11.3% compared to September 2018, while in August 2019 compared to August 2018 this figure rose by 8.9%.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine (legal entities and individual entrepreneurs) in January-September 2019 in comparable prices increased by 9.8% compared with January-September 2018, the State Statistics Service has said.
The growth of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) in April-June 2019 amounted to 4.6% compared to the same period in 2018, while in the first quarter the growth rate was lower and stood at 2.5%, according to preliminary data from the State Statistics Service, which confirmed its operational assessment dated mid-August this year. Fitch has said that after a strong Q2 2019 (4.6% year-over-year), Fitch projects 3.4% growth in 2019, reflecting strong domestic demand and exports driven by the agriculture sector (wheat harvest).
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-July 2019 increased by 18.5% compared with January-July 2018, to $4.936 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Actual inflation in August 2019 in Ukraine has approached the forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) published in the inflation reform for July 2019, the regulator has reported on its website.
Consumer prices in Ukraine after falling in July 2019 by 0.6% in August fell by another 0.3%, and in annual terms inflation in August fell to 9% from 9.1% in July, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has said.
The national budget of Ukraine in January-August 2019 posted a surplus of UAH 2.38 billion with the deficit of the general fund being UAH 4.12 billion, according to data on the website of the State Treasury Service.
Revenue of the national budget in August 2019 totaled UAH 87.6 billion, which is 6.9% less than in August 2019, and the outturn is 91%, according to data from the State Treasury Service of Ukraine.
Solvent Ukrainian banks in January-August 2019 received UAH 44.29 billion in net profit, which is 3.2 times more than in the same period in 2018, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has said.
The consolidated profit of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) through January-June 2019 totaled UAH 6.4 billion, while its loss for the similar period of 2018 totaled UAH 1.1 billion, according to the first such kind of interim report posted by the central bank.
Ukraine’s international reserves in August 2019, according to preliminary data, rose by 0.8%, to $22.015 billion.
Industrial products (goods, services) worth UAH 1.485 trillion were sold in Ukraine in January-July 2019, which is 5.2% more than in January-July 2018 (UAH 1.411 trillion), in particular abroad for UAH 406.371 billion, the State Statistics Service has said.
Industrial prices in Ukraine in August 2019 decreased 0.7% after rising in July by 3.6% and falling by 2.7% in June, the State Statistics Service has said.
Sugar production in Ukraine as of September 24, 2019 amounted to 121,500 tonnes.
The transport enterprises of Ukraine in January-August 2019 increased freight transportation by 8.1% compared to the same period of 2018, to 442.9 million tonnes, the country’s State Statistics Service has said. The transport companies of Ukraine in January-August 2019 carried 2.808 billion people, which was 5.9% down year-over-year (y-o-y), the country’s State Statistics Service has reported.
The volume of construction work in Ukraine in August 2019 increased by 8.9% compared to August 2018, while in July 2019 from July 2018 this figure rose by 14.5%.
Retail trade in Ukraine in January-August 2019 increased by 9.9% in comparable prices compared with January-August 2018.
The Institute of International Finance (IIF) predicts a slowdown in real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Ukraine from 3.3% in 2018 to 2.8% in 2019 and its subsequent slight acceleration to 2.9% in 2020.
The National Bank of Ukraine has improved its macro forecast for 2019–2021: the estimate of the real growth of the economy this year has been raised from 2.5% to 3%, and in the next year from 2.9% to 3.2%.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-May 2019 increased by 27.4% compared with January-May 2018, to $2.634 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on July 10 approved the strategy for the development of exports of agricultural, food and processing industry products until 2026, as well as a plan for its implementation, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food has said.
Ukraine’s Investment Attractiveness Index in January-June 2019 fell to the level of 2016, being 2.85 points on a 5-grade scale compared with 3.07 in H2 2018, according to findings of the European Business Association (EBA).
The actual inflation rate in Ukraine in June 2019 was higher than the forecast published in the Inflation Report (April 2019), according to the NBU’s commentary on the inflation rate posted on the central bank’s website.
Consumer prices in Ukraine in June 2019 fell by 0.5% compared with May 2019, while in annual terms inflation of 9% was seen, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine reported.
The surplus of Ukraine’s national budget in H1 2019 totaled UAH 2.1 billion, including the deficit of the general fund of the national budget being UAH 6.8 billion, while in January-May 2019 the surplus of the national budget was UAH 7.7 billion with the deficit of the general fund of UAH 2.14 billion, Ukraine’s Finance Ministry has reported on its website, referring to preliminary data from the State Treasury Service of Ukraine.
The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine in January-June 2019 amounted to UAH 871 million, in particular the general fund deficit was UAH 8.67 billion with the target being UAH 22.99 billion, the State Treasury Service has said.
The assets of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in January-June 2019 decreased by 5.3% and amounted to UAH 993.707 billion, the corresponding financial indicators were published by the central bank in the Uriadovy Kurier edition.
The consolidated balance of payments of Ukraine in May 2019 saw a deficit of $750 million against a deficit of $45 million in April, a surplus of $652 million in March 2019 and $266 million in May 2018, which is associated with large payments on public debt and an increase in cash outside banks.
Industrial production in Ukraine in June 2019 decreased by 2.3% compared with June 2018, after growing in May by 1.6%, April by 5.2%, in March by 2.1% , Ukraine’s State Statistics Service reported.
The transport enterprises of Ukraine (excluding the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, as well as part of the JFO area) in January-June 2019 increased freight transportation by 8.2% compared to the same period of 2018, to 328.5 million tonnes, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The transport companies of Ukraine in January-June 2019 carried 2.137 billion people, which is 6.3% less than in the same period of 2018, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in June 2019 increased by 1.7% compared with June 2018, while the indicator in May 2019 vs May 2018 rose by 15.7%.
In January-June 2019, retail trade in Ukraine increased by 10.3% in comparable prices year-over-year, the State Statistics Service reported.
IMF expects the completion of parliamentary elections in Ukraine to continue negotiations on further cooperation with the country, IMF Spokesperson Gerry Rice has said at a briefing in Washington.
The growth of Ukraine’s gross domestic product in January-March 2019 was 2.5% compared to the same period in 2018, the State Statistics Service has reported, while according to its preliminary estimate made in mid-May this figure was 2.2%.
Ukraine could receive the second tranche of EU macro-financial assistance in the amount of EUR 500 million by the end of 2019, Head of the EU Delegation to Ukraine Hugues Mingarelli has said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that he does not offer large businessmen Victor Pinchuk, Rinat Akhmetov, Ihor Kolomoisky and other representatives of business any preferences, but offers only honest common rules for everyone.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said about his vision of how to make Ukraine the really rich country and called on business to invest money, time and ideas in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has invited foreign business to participate in the investment council under the Presidential Administration of Ukraine, which will meet twice a year.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-April 2019 grew by 45.2% compared with January-April 2018, to $2.093 billion, the State Statistics Service said.
Inflation in Ukraine in May 2019 was 0.7% compared to 1% in April, 0.9% in March, 0.5% in February and 1% in January, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has reported.
The surplus of the Ukrainian national budget in January-May 2019 was UAH 8.6 billion, with the target being UAH 90 billion over the year, according to the Ministry of Finance’s website.
Revenue of Ukraine’s national budget in May 2019 totaled UAH 104.119 billion, which is 8.5% more than it was expected that 7.5% more compared with May 2018, according to information posted on the website of the State Treasury Service of Ukraine.
Money supply in Ukraine in May 2019 decreased by 0.3%, to UAH 1.260 trillion, the corresponding preliminary data are posted on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
The international reserves of Ukraine in May 2019, according to preliminary data, decreased by 5.5%, to $19.402 billion due to significant repayments of government debt, according to the NBU’s website.
The aggregate state (direct) and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine in May 2019 fell by 1.8% or $1.4 billion, to $78.39 billion.
Ukraine’s gross external debt as of April 1, 2019 was $114.43 billion, which is $0.28 billion, or 0.24%, less than at the beginning of the year, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s consolidated balance of payment in April 2019 totaled $45 million, while the surplus in March was $652 million.
Industrial production in Ukraine in May 2019 increased by 1.6% compared with May 2018, after a rise of 5.2% in April, 2.1% in March, and a fall of 1.8% and 3.3% in February and January respectively, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Industrial prices in Ukraine in May 2019 increased by 2.1%, after falling by 1.5% in April and by 1% in March, growing by 1% in February and January, the State Statistics Service said.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in May 2019 increased by 15.7% compared with May 2018, while the indicator in April 2019 compared with April 2018 rose by 29.4%.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in January-May 2019 in comparable prices increased by 9.6% compared with January-May 2018, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) equals 82.8 in May, which is 11.2 points higher than the indicator in April, the values of indices can vary from 0 to 200, according to a study by Info Sapiens.
