The net inflow to Ukraine in the week of April 1-7 rose to a record 97,000 people from 18,000 a week earlier, which can be explained by Easter holidays and school vacations in Europe.
According to the State Border Service in Facebook, the flow to leave Ukraine in that week decreased from 247 thousand to 241 thousand people, while the flow to enter jumped from 265 thousand to 338 thousand people.
According to the Ministry, the number of cars crossed the western Ukrainian border, in the 14th week of the year also increased, but not so significantly – from 127 thousand to 132 thousand, and the number of vehicles with humanitarian cargoes declined – from 688 to 522.
The largest net inflow to Ukraine – from 15 to 27 thousand people per day – was fixed on April 1-3, when 47-58 thousand people daily entered the country, which resulted in queues at the border, especially from Poland.
Polish Border Guard Service also recorded a significant net inflow to Ukraine for the last seven days – 87.7 thousand people compared to 18.6 thousand a week earlier.
According to the Polish Ministry, the weekly flow from Ukraine to Poland reduced from 165.8 thousand people to 155.3 thousand, whereas the return flow from Poland to Ukraine increased from 184.4 thousand people to 243.0 thousand.
In total, since the beginning of the war, by April 7, 2023, 10.95 million people had arrived in Poland from Ukraine, while in the opposite direction 9.17 million people were transported.
As it was reported, since May 10, 2022, the outflow of refugees from Ukraine was replaced by an inflow, which lasted until September 23 and amounted to 409 thousand people.
However, during the last week of September, the net outflow was 28 thousand people at once, and one of the possible reasons was a reaction to mobilization in Russia and “pseudo-referendums” in the occupied territories, and then the probable reason for the continued net outflow was the massive shelling of the energy infrastructure. It temporarily stopped in the second half of December and early January for the period of the holidays, but from the second week of January it resumed again and cumulatively since late September by the anniversary of the full-scale war reached 223 thousand people.
However, since that moment 130 thousand more people entered Ukraine than left.
As Deputy Economy Minister Sergei Sobolev noted in early March, the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home gives a 0.5% increase in GDP.
According to UNHCR data as of April 4, a total of 20.19 million people left Ukraine since the war began (not including the flow of people into the country), of which 10.61 million left for Poland, 2.85 million for Russia (data as of October 3), 2.45 million for Hungary, 2.19 million for Romania, 1.28 million for Slovakia, 0.80 million for Moldova and 0.02 million for Belarus.
At the same time, according to the UN data, 11.63 million people arrived in Ukraine from February 28, 2022 to April 4, 2023 (excluding the data of Hungary, Russia and Belarus).
The number of Ukrainians registered in Europe with temporary protection status or similar reached 5.027 million on April 4, increasing by 19 thousand during the week.
The flow to enter Ukraine through its western border for the week from July 30 to August 5 amounted to about 304 thousand, while to exit – about 283 thousand, compared to last week, both indicators increased by 8%, reports State Border Service on Facebook.
As a result, net inflows into the country increased to about 21,000 from about 19,000 a week ago, according to its data.
The number of cars passing through the border increased by 9% to about 130,000 in a week, while the number of vehicles with humanitarian cargo cleared by 4% to 447.
Such data is confirmed by the Polish border service. According to her, from July 30 to August 5, 167 thousand entered Poland from Ukraine (a week earlier – 162 thousand), while from Poland to Ukraine – 191 thousand (173 thousand).
In general, since the beginning of the war, 5.297 million have arrived in Poland from Ukraine, while in the opposite direction – 3.409 million.
According to the State Border Service, the flow to enter Ukraine is more than the flow to exit on Saturday-Tuesday, while in the opposite direction – on Wednesday-Thursday.
As reported, since May 10, the flow to enter Ukraine through its western border has steadily exceeded the flow to exit for almost a month. Net inflow during this time amounted to 188 thousand. In the following weeks, there was no such unambiguous trend, and net inflow over the next two months decreased to 81 thousand.
According to UNHCR data, as of August 2, a total of 10.35 million people have left Ukraine since the beginning of the war (excluding entry flow), of which 5.106 million went to Poland, 1.968 million to Russia, 1.089 million to Hungary, 964 to Romania, 9 thousand, Slovakia – 648.5 thousand, Moldova – 557.2 thousand, Belarus – 16.7 thousand.
At the same time, according to the UN, from February 28 to August 2 July, 4.272 million people entered Ukraine (excluding data from Hungary, the Russian Federation and Belarus).
In its new video, the Expert Club YouTube channel reviewed the macroeconomic situation in Ukraine in the 6th month of the war, and also analyzed the July IMF report on the global economic outlook in 2022 and 2023.
As we wrote earlier, the state authorities of Ukraine have temporarily suspended the publication of most statistical information for the period of martial law and for three months from the moment it ends. The exception is the publication of data on the consumer price index, separate information on indicators of foreign trade in goods, etc.
Thus, from the data published by the State Employment Center, it follows that the number of registered unemployed in Ukraine is approximately at the level of last year, while the number of available vacancies has sharply decreased.
This, according to the founder of the Club of Experts Maksim Urakin, has led to the fact that now about 12-13 unemployed people apply for one vacancy.
“The estimate of the unemployment rate by the National Bank in the second quarter of 2022 is 35% according to the methodology of the International Labor Organization,” Maksim Urakin added.
In addition, according to Urakin, the current forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2023-2024, published by the National Bank, is based primarily on expectations of an increase in international support for Ukraine and the implementation of programs to restore war-damaged infrastructure.
On the situation in the global economy, the Club of Experts analyzed the report of the International Monetary Fund, published in July. In particular, there is a possible recession in the US economy. a slowdown in GDP growth in China and India, as well as a deterioration in the situation in the euro area, provoked by rising energy prices.
See this and much more in a new video on the YouTube channel “Experts Club” at the link:
CLUB OF EXPERTS, ECONOMIC_UKRAINE, MACROECONOMICS, STATISTICS, URAKIN, ВІДЕО
The turnover of retail trade in Ukraine in November 2021 compared to the same month in 2020 in comparable prices increased by 5.8%, while in October the growth was 5.7%, the State Statistics Service reported.
According to its data, in November compared to October 2021, retail turnover increased by 0.1%.
In January-November 2021, compared to January-November 2020, the retail trade turnover increased by 11.2%, to UAH 1.29 trillion.
The largest growth in retail trade turnover of enterprises (legal entities and individual entrepreneurs) for the 11 months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020 was recorded in Chernivtsi (by 27.6%), Ternopil (by 24.4%), Zakarpattia (by 20.3%), Vinnytsia (by 19%), Lviv (by 18.1%), Poltava (by 17.5%), Rivne (by 15.3%), Cherkasy (by 13.3%), Khmelnytsky (by 13%), Odesa (12.6%), Ivano-Frankivsk and Chernihiv (12.4%), Kyiv (12%), Mykolaiv (11.5%) regions.
According to the statistics department, the leaders in absolute indicators of the volume of retail trade in 11 months ending November 30, 2021 were: Kyiv city (UAH 248.785 billion), Dnipropetrovsk (UAH 118.223 billion), Kyiv (UAH 108.185 billion), Odesa (UAH 95.664 billion), Kharkiv (UAH 87.153 billion) and Lviv (UAH 79.974 billion) regions.
The State Statistics Service said that the turnover of retail enterprises (legal entities) in November 2021 compared to November 2020 grew by 6.4%, compared with October 2021 – by 0.1%, amounting to UAH 92.464 billion.
At the same time, in January-November this year, the retail trade turnover of enterprises increased by 11.4% (compared to January-November last year), to UAH 933.435 billion.
The wholesale turnover of enterprises (legal entities) in January-November 2021 compared to the same period in 2020 fell by 7% and amounted to UAH 3.006 trillion.
The State Statistics Service reminds that the data are given without taking into account the temporarily occupied territories of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, the city of Sevastopol, part of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Passengers carried in Jan-August of 2021, in mln
