Global steel production from January through September 2026 totaled 1 billion 367.493 million metric tons, down 0.7% compared to the same period in 2025.
According to the World Steel Association (Worldsteel), China retained its top spot in the global rankings, producing 724.77 million metric tons of steel over the nine-month period. However, the country’s production declined by 2.9% year-over-year.
India ranked second with 129.957 million metric tons, increasing output by 5.6%. The United States ranked third with 64.945 million metric tons, which is 5.8% more than in January–September 2025.
Russia produced 49.421 million metric tons of steel, a decrease of 3.6%, while South Korea produced 48.04 million metric tons, an increase of 2.9%. Turkey’s production rose by 6.1%, to 29.777 million metric tons, while Germany’s increased by 4%, to 26.529 million metric tons.
Against this backdrop, Ukrainian steelmakers reduced steel production by 19.8% over the nine-month period, to 4.431 million metric tons. Ukraine ranked 25th among steel-producing countries.
In September, global steel production decreased by 0.2% compared to the same month last year, to 142.4 million metric tons. Production in Ukraine for the month totaled 131,000 metric tons, compared to 611,000 metric tons in September 2025.
Ukrainian steel mills produced 131,000 metric tons of steel in September 2026, which is 4.66 times less than in the same month of 2025, when production totaled 611,000 metric tons.
Compared to August 2026, steel production fell by 52.7%—from 277,000 metric tons, according to data from the World Steel Association (Worldsteel).
Amid the decline in production volumes, Ukraine dropped to 41st place in the global ranking of steel producers among 70 countries. In July, the country ranked 26th; in August, 33rd; while a year earlier, it was in 21st place.
Overall, global steel production in September 2026 fell by 0.2% compared to September 2025—to 142.4 million metric tons.
From January through September, Ukrainian steel mills produced 4.431 million metric tons of steel, which is 19.8% less than during the same period last year—5.523 million metric tons.
Global steel production over the nine-month period decreased by 0.7%, to 1.367 billion metric tons.
In 2025, Ukraine produced 7.41 million metric tons of steel, which is 2.2% less than in 2024. At the end of the year, the country ranked 21st in the global rankings.
Global steel demand will remain virtually unchanged in 2026 at approximately 1.722 billion tonnes, but could increase by 1.7% in 2027 to 1.752 billion tonnes, according to the October Short Range Outlook released by the World Steel Association (Worldsteel).
As the Experts Club information and analytical center notes, Worldsteel’s new forecast highlights an increasingly noticeable divergence between China and the rest of the global market. While demand continues to decline in China, the recovery outside the country is gradually accelerating.
According to Worldsteel, steel demand outside China will grow by 1.5% in 2026 and by as much as 4% in 2027. It is the sheer size of the Chinese market that effectively conceals the stronger positive dynamics in other countries.
Alfonso Hidalgo Calcerrada, Chairman of the Worldsteel Economics Committee, noted that the recovery is progressing more slowly than expected in the spring. In April, the association anticipated moderate growth in global demand as early as 2026 and an increase of 2.2% in 2027. However, the forecast for next year has now been lowered to 1.7%.
China remains the main obstacle to growth in the global market. Steel demand in the country is expected to decline by 2% in 2026 and by another 1% in 2027. The reason remains weakness in the real estate market and infrastructure investment. Growth in industrial production and exports is not yet sufficient to fully offset the decline in these two largest areas of steel consumption.
India stands at the opposite end of the spectrum. It remains the world’s largest rapidly growing steel market: demand in the country is expected to increase by 7.9% in 2026 to 172.4 million tonnes, and by another 8% in 2027 to 186.2 million tonnes. The main drivers remain infrastructure construction, private real estate, industry, and renewable energy projects.
In developing countries excluding China, demand is forecast to increase by 1.9% in 2026 and by as much as 5.1% in 2027. Meanwhile, growth in ASEAN-5 will reach 5.2% in 2026, while Vietnam will approach steel consumption of around 30 million tonnes for the first time, thanks to intensive construction and a large-scale public investment program.
A completely different situation is emerging in the Persian Gulf countries. Following demand growth of 17.7% in 2025, Worldsteel expects a decline of approximately 11% in 2026 due to ongoing instability in the Middle East, delays in investment decisions, and the postponement of construction project launches. If the situation stabilizes, the association forecasts a recovery of 11.3% in 2027.
Worldsteel considers the resumption of industrial growth in developed economies to be one of the key trends of 2027. Additional steel demand is expected to be generated by investments in artificial intelligence and data centers, rising defense spending, the energy transition, infrastructure projects, and railway construction.
In the European Union, the recovery is being postponed for the time being. Worldsteel expects apparent steel consumption in the EU to decline by 0.3% in 2026 before increasing by 3.1% in 2027. The forecast for the European market has been revised downward by as much as 1.5 percentage points.
Worldsteel attributes the relatively strong performance of the EU in 2025 partly to inventory accumulation ahead of the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026. At the same time, the underlying indicators of European industry have proved weaker than expected: the construction recovery is progressing slowly, housing completions remain low, and the automotive industry continues to constrain demand.
The United States, by contrast, is expected to maintain positive momentum. Steel demand in the country could grow by 2% in 2026 and by approximately 1.5% in 2027. Worldsteel identifies investments in data centers, energy, renewable power generation, oil and gas infrastructure, and major industrial projects as the main sources of growth.
A moderate recovery is also expected in Japan and South Korea. In Japan, demand could increase by 0.9% in 2026 and by 1.7% in 2027, while in South Korea the corresponding figures are 1.8% and 1.3%. However, even after such growth, neither country will yet return to the consumption levels recorded before the latest downturn.
According to Experts Club, the global steel market is gradually shifting from a model in which global dynamics were determined primarily by China toward a much more geographically distributed demand structure. India, Southeast Asian countries, US infrastructure projects, and the expected recovery in Europe are becoming increasingly important sources of growth.
At the same time, the structure of steel consumption is also changing. Whereas large-scale residential construction in China was previously one of the main drivers, increasing amounts of steel are now required for energy infrastructure, data centers, defense projects, railways, and industrial equipment.
Nevertheless, Worldsteel remains cautious about 2027. The forecast was prepared using data available at the beginning of September 2026, while prolonged instability in the Middle East and possible new disruptions to energy and logistics supply chains remain the main risks to the global market.
Thus, 2026 is likely to be another year of stagnation for the global steel market, but growth outside China could accelerate significantly as early as 2027. At the same time, the geography of demand is becoming increasingly diversified, while infrastructure, energy, and new technological investments are gradually becoming the industry’s main structural growth drivers.
Source: Worldsteel, Short Range Outlook, October 2026.
EXPERTS CLUB, GLOBAL STEEL MARKET, STEEL, STEEL DEMAND, WORLDSTEEL
Ukrainian steelmakers reduced steel production by 19.8% in January–September of this year compared to the same period last year, down to 4.431 million metric tons.
According to information released Friday by the “Ukrmetallurgprom” association, 131,000 metric tons of steel were produced in September, 277,000 metric tons in August, 457,000 metric tons in July, 690,800 metric tons in June, in May—629,400 metric tons, in April—517,300 metric tons, in March—702,300 metric tons, in February—515,000 metric tons, and in January—511,100 metric tons.
In 2025, Ukraine’s steel mills reduced steel production by 2.2% compared to 2024, to 7.409 million metric tons.
In 2024, Ukraine increased steel production by 21.6% compared to 2023, to 7.575 million metric tons. In 2023, steel production fell by 0.6% to 6.228 million metric tons, and in 2022, it fell by 70.7% to 6.263 million metric tons.
In 2021, before the war, 21.366 million metric tons of steel were produced, or 103.6% of the 2020 level.
India continues to strengthen its position as the world’s second-largest steel producer and is gradually closing the gap with China, according to data from the World Steel Association (Worldsteel) published on September 24, 2026.
From January through August 2026, Indian steelmakers produced 115.9 million metric tons of steel, a 6% increase compared to the same period last year. During the same period, China’s production fell by 3.1% to 651.9 million metric tons.
According to Open4Business calculations based on Worldsteel data, India produced approximately 109.3 million metric tons of steel in the first eight months of 2025, while China produced approximately 672.8 million metric tons. Thus, the absolute gap between the two largest producers over the year narrowed from approximately 563 million to 536 million metric tons, or by nearly 5%.
The ratio of production volumes is also shifting in India’s favor. While China produced about 6.2 times more steel than India from January through August of last year, that figure fell to about 5.6 times in 2026.
This trend continued in August. India increased its steel output by 4.6% year-over-year—to 14.8 million metric tons—while production in China fell by 3.7%—to 74.6 million metric tons. (World Steel Association)
India also more than doubles the output of the United States, which ranks third among the world’s largest producers. U.S. steelmakers produced 57.5 million metric tons of steel from January through August, increasing output by 5.5%. Japan produced 54 million metric tons, Russia—43.8 million metric tons, and South Korea—42.8 million metric tons.
Thus, India’s output over the eight-month period is already roughly double that of the U.S. and more than double that of Japan.
India accounted for about 9.5% of all steel produced by the 70 countries that provide statistics to Worldsteel, while China’s share was about 53% and the U.S.’s was about 4.7%. These 70 countries accounted for approximately 98% of global steel production in 2025.
The difference is particularly noticeable against the backdrop of the industry’s overall stagnation. From January through August, global steel production fell by 0.7% to 1.225 billion metric tons, while India continued to show steady growth. In August, global production declined by 1.2% year-over-year to 144.2 million metric tons.
Vietnam remains another fast-growing Asian producer. Over the eight-month period, it increased its output by 29.1%—to 20.6 million metric tons—with growth reaching 36.4% in August alone. Overall, however, steel production in Asia and Oceania has declined by 0.9% since the beginning of the year—to 906.4 million metric tons—primarily due to trends in the Chinese market.
China, meanwhile, maintains a huge lead and remains the undisputed leader in the global steel industry. However, the diverging trends of the two largest producers indicate a gradual increase in India’s share of the global steel industry.
Original source: World Steel Association — August 2026 crude steel production
According to Experts Club, Vietnam is showing the highest growth rates in steel production among the world’s top ten countries, as evidenced by data published on September 24 by the World Steel Association.
In August 2026, the country produced approximately 2.7 million metric tons of steel, increasing output by 36.4% compared to August of last year.
From January through August, production reached 20.6 million metric tons, rising by approximately 29% year-over-year. This represents the highest growth rate among the world’s largest producers.
Based on cumulative results, Vietnam is already among the top ten global steel producers, closing in on Brazil in terms of production volume; Brazil produced 21.8 million metric tons over the same eight-month period.
By comparison, the world’s largest producer—China—reduced production by 3.1% to 651.9 million metric tons over the same period, while India increased its output by 6% to 115.9 million metric tons. The United States increased production by 5.5%, Turkey by 6.8%, and Germany by 6.3%.
As a result, the global steel market is becoming increasingly heterogeneous: despite an overall 0.7% decline in production from January through August, certain Asian markets continue to rapidly expand their capacity and production volumes.
The difference is particularly noticeable within Asia. In August, production across the Asia-Pacific region fell by 1.4% due to a decline in output in China, while India and Vietnam continued to grow.
As of the end of August, countries in Asia and Oceania accounted for 106.7 million metric tons of the 144.2 million metric tons of global output, or about 74% of global steel production.
