Global steel demand will increase by 1.7% to 1.793 billion tons in 2024 and by another 1.2% to 1.815 billion tons in 2025, the World Steel Association predicts.
Martin Theuringer, Chairman of the Worldsteel Economic Committee, noted in his commentary that after two years of negative growth and severe market volatility following the COVID crisis in 2020, there are first signs of stabilization of global steel demand on a growth trajectory in 2024 and 2025.
According to him, the global economy continues to demonstrate resilience despite several strong headwinds, the lingering impact of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, high inflation, high costs and falling household purchasing power, growing geopolitical uncertainty and sharp monetary tightening.
“As we approach the end of the monetary tightening cycle, we have seen that tighter credit conditions and higher costs have led to a sharp slowdown in housing activity in most major markets and weighed on the manufacturing sector globally. While it appears that the global economy will experience a soft landing after this cycle of monetary tightening, we expect global steel demand growth to remain weak and market volatility to remain high due to the lagged effects of monetary tightening, high costs and high geopolitical uncertainty,” the head of the economic committee said.
China’s steel demand in 2024 is expected to remain roughly at the level of 2023 as real estate investment continues to decline, but the corresponding loss in steel demand will be offset by an increase in steel demand driven by infrastructure investment and manufacturing sectors. In 2025, steel demand in China will return to a downward trend with a 1% decline.
This forecast implies that by 2025, China’s steel demand will be significantly lower than in the recent peak year of 2020. This forecast is also in line with Worldsteel’s view that China may have reached its peak steel demand and that steel demand in the country is likely to continue to be strong in the medium term as China gradually moves away from an economic development model dependent on real estate and infrastructure investment.
Worldsteel’s forecasts for the world, excluding China, assume broad-based growth in steel demand at a relatively high 3.5% per year in 2024-2025.
It also states that India has become the strongest driver of steel demand growth since 2021, and the forecast shows that steel demand in India will continue to grow rapidly, with steel demand in the country growing by 8% in 2024 and 2025, driven by growth in all steel-using sectors and especially by continued strong growth in infrastructure investment. India’s steel demand is projected to be almost 70 million tons higher in 2025 than in 2020.
In other emerging economies such as the Middle East, Africa and ASEAN, steel demand is expected to grow in 2024-2025 after a significant slowdown in 2022-2023. However, growing challenges in ASEAN, such as political instability and declining competitiveness, may lead to a slowdown in steel demand growth in the future.
The developed world is also expected to see a stronger recovery: 1.3% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025, as Worldsteel expects steel demand to finally show strong growth in the EU in 2025 and remain resilient in the US, Japan and Korea.
According to the forecast, the EU (and the UK) remain the region currently facing the biggest challenges. The region, and in particular its steel-using industries, is facing challenges on multiple fronts: geopolitical shifts and uncertainty, high inflation, monetary tightening and partial withdrawal of fiscal support, and still high energy and commodity prices. The persistence of these negative factors has led to a significant drop in steel demand in the region in 2023 to the lowest level since 2000 and a significant downward revision of the forecast for this year. After only a technical recovery in 2024, steel demand in the region is expected to finally show a significant recovery with growth of 5.3% in 2025. Projected steel demand in the EU in 2024 is only 1.5 million tons higher than during the 2020 pandemic.
In contrast to the EU, US steel demand continues to demonstrate healthy steel demand fundamentals. The country’s steel demand is expected to quickly return to growth in 2024 after a sharp drop caused by the housing market slowdown in 2023, thanks to strong investment activity, boosted by the inflation reduction law, and a gradual recovery in housing activity.
Worldsteel believes that risks have decreased since its last forecast update in October 2023 and are balanced. On the other hand, the Association believes that faster-than-expected disinflation, accompanied by further monetary policy easing, could provide a significant boost to steel-using sectors, especially residential construction. Worldsteel also believes that accelerating global decarbonization efforts or efforts to strengthen public infrastructure to combat the growing risks of climate change are significant positive risks that could support global steel demand going forward.
“However, we observe that further escalation of geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures proving more resilient than expected, and high and rising public debt levels driving fiscal consolidation in major economies pose significant risks that could certainly slow or even derail the ongoing economic recovery,” the forecast concludes.
According to Metinvest Group’s annual report, in 2023 Metinvest’s revenue decreased by 11% to $7.397 bln by 2022, mainly due to lower steel, iron ore and coking coal selling prices, which were in line with global rates. Also, sales volumes of pig iron, slabs, flat and tubular products were affected by the war from the suspension of production at Mariupol steel mills. At the same time, Metinvest increased shipments of other products in its portfolio (primarily billets by 6%, long products by 28%, pellets by 70% and coking coal concentrate by 32%), as well as steel and coke resales on the back of higher production at Zaporizhstal.
A significant factor supporting iron ore sales in H2 2023 was the opening of the Black Sea corridor for sales to distant markets.
Also, Metinvest’s revenue in Ukraine grew by 14% to $2.628 bln mainly due to a recovery in demand for iron ore and coking coal, as well as for flat and long products.
In turn, the group has had to make profound changes to its business operations as it continues to strive for adaptability and resilience.
“We have adjusted our supply chain and are strengthening relationships with our suppliers and customers to withstand the current conditions. At the beginning of 2023, the company experienced significant challenges, particularly due to power outages. However, by implementing the necessary changes to respond to this crisis, we were able to achieve a gradual recovery of production,” states the CEO.
He emphasized that the resumption of Ukrainian commercial shipping in the Black Sea later in 2023 was an important moment for Metinvest, allowing to increase capacity utilization. “We are cautiously optimistic about this undoubtedly positive development, while recognizing the ongoing military threats,” the top manager added.
According to him, these developments have directly impacted the group’s financial performance, improving the situation and allowing us to focus on operational efficiency, flexibility and strategic planning for future growth.
“Metinvest remains committed to servicing its debt obligations, having repaid the remaining principal amount of the group’s 2023 bonds redeemed last year on time and in full, while maintaining its deleveraging approach, Ryzhenkov said.
“Although Metinvest has focused its investments in 2023 mainly on maintaining its assets, I firmly believe that we must start preparing for the future. Our ambitions have not diminished; we have laid the foundation for Steel Dream, our visionary vision for rebuilding Ukraine. Despite the war, our commitment to a green transformation strategy also remains unchanged. This vision embodies our determination not only to dream, but also to plan a pilot project on low-carbon steel technology in Italy,” summarized the CEO.
“Metinvest consists of mining and metallurgical enterprises located in Ukraine, Europe and the United States. Its major shareholders are SCM Group (71.24%) and Smart Holding (23.76%), jointly managing it.
COKING COAL, IRON ORE, METINVEST, PIG IRON, REVENUE, ROLLED PRODUCTS, slabs, STEEL
According to Ukrmetallurgprom, Ukrainian metallurgical enterprises increased steel production by 91.6% in January this year, up to 544 thousand tons from 284 thousand tons in January 2023.
As reported, in 2023, Ukraine increased production of total rolled products by 0.4% compared to 2022 to 5.372 million tons, but reduced steel production by 0.6% to 6.228 million tons.
Ukraine reduced steel production by 70.7% in 2022. In 2021, 21.366 million tons of steel were produced (103.6%).
In January this year, Zaporizhzhia-based Zaporizhstal Iron and Steel Works increased its rolled steel output by 2.6 times year-on-year, up to 196 thousand tons from 74.6 thousand tons.
According to the company’s information on Monday, steel production during this period also increased by 2.6 times to 235.5 thousand tons, and pig iron production by 56.9% to 261 thousand tons.
In December 2023, Zaporizhstal produced 265.5 thousand tons of iron, 228.6 thousand tons of steel, and shipped 206.5 thousand tons of rolled products.
“The increase in production in January 2024 compared to the same period last year is due to the removal of blast furnace No. 2 from hot mothballing and the establishment of three blast furnaces in March 2023,” the press release explains.
As reported, in 2023, Zaporizhstal increased its rolled steel output by 57.2% compared to 2022, up to 2 million 54.7 thousand tons, steel by 65.4%, up to 2 million 466.9 thousand tons, and pig iron by 35.3%, up to 2 million 718.9 thousand tons.
In 2023, the plant operated at an average of 70% of its capacity.
“Zaporizhstal is one of the largest industrial enterprises in Ukraine, whose products are in great demand among consumers both in the domestic market and in many countries around the world.
“Zaporizhstal is in the process of integration into Metinvest Group, whose major shareholders are System Capital Management (71.24%) and Smart Holding (23.76%).
Metinvest Holding LLC is the management company of Metinvest Group.
In January-November this year, Ukrainian steelmakers cut production of total rolled steel by 7.2% year-on-year to 4.864 million tons, according to preliminary data.
According to Ukrmetallurgprom on Friday, in the first 11 months of this year, steel production decreased by 7.3% compared to January-November 2022, to 5.707 million tons.
Pig iron production during this period decreased by 11.3% to 5.447 million tons.
As reported, in 9M2023, Ukraine reduced production of total rolled products by 17% year-on-year to 3.929 million tons, steel by 16.9% to 4.590 million tons, and pig iron by 19.5% to 4.394 million tons.
In 2022, the country’s steelmaking companies reduced production of total rolled products by 72% year-on-year to 5.350 million tons, steel by 70.7% to 6.263 million tons, and pig iron by 69.8% to 6.391 million tons.
In 2021, the company produced 21.165 million tons of pig iron (103.6% compared to 2020), 21.366 million tons of steel (103.6%), and 19.079 million tons of rolled products (103.5%).
“Metinvest reduced steel production by 43% year-on-year to 1.531 million tons in January-September this year, according to a press release from the parent company Metinvest B.V. on Wednesday, following the results of the third quarter and nine months of this year.
During this period, pig iron production decreased by 46% to 1.344 million tons, coke production by 31% to 948 thousand tons, and commercial coke production increased by 7% to 644 thousand tons.
At the same time, it is noted that due to the outbreak of Russia’s large-scale military aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Metinvest decided to suspend production at a number of its enterprises in Mariupol, Avdiivka and Zaporizhzhia, including Azovstal, Ilyich Iron and Steel Works of Mariupol, Avdiivka Coke and Zaporizhzhia Coke. Later, Zaporizhzhia-based enterprises of the Group resumed production.
As of today, the Group’s Ukrainian enterprises, except for those located in Mariupol and Avdiivka, continue to operate at varying levels of utilization, taking into account security, electricity supply, logistics and economic factors.
In the third quarter of 2023, pig iron production decreased by 10% quarter-on-quarter to 425 thousand tons, mainly due to the shutdown of blast furnace No. 1 at Kametstal for a scheduled overhaul. As a result, steel production decreased by 8% to 499 thousand tons. Over the first nine months of the year, the Group’s iron and steel production decreased by 46% and 43%. The suspension of production at the Mariupol plants from the end of February 2022 was partially offset by volumes at Kametstal.
In the third quarter, the Group produced 159 thousand tonnes of semi-finished products, down 27% quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to higher domestic consumption at downstream stages.
In addition, in the first nine months of 2023, the output of semi-finished products decreased by 26% to 657 thousand tons due to the absence of production at Mariupol plants since the end of February 2022. This was partially offset by an increase in the production of commercial billets at Kametstal’s facilities.
In the third quarter, Metinvest’s output of finished products decreased by 3% quarter-on-quarter to 583 thousand tons. At the same time, flat products production decreased by 27 thousand tons to 267 thousand tons due to a reduction in the order book at the rolling mills in Italy and the UK. This was partially offset by an increase in galvanized cold-rolled coil production at Unisteel Ukraine as the fourth inductor was restarted after being shut down for overhaul in the second quarter.
At the same time, long products production increased by 9 thousand tons to 316 thousand tons, mainly due to an increase in the rebar order book at Kametstal.
In the first nine months of 2023, finished product output fell by 26% to 1.728 million tons. At the same time, flat products production decreased by 666 thousand tons to 847 thousand tons due to the shutdown of Mariupol’s plants. This was partially offset by an increase in hot-rolled plates production at re-rolling mills in Italy and the UK as third-party slab supplies were restored.
In turn, long products output increased by 72 thousand tonnes to 881 thousand tonnes due to the stabilization of billet production at Kametstal and normalization of supplies to Promet Steel in Bulgaria.
There was no output of rail and pipe products as they were produced at Mariupol-based plants.
Coke production in the third quarter decreased by 9% quarter-on-quarter to 299 thousand tons, mainly due to lower coke demand at Kametstal. Over the first nine months of the year, this figure fell by 31% to 948 thousand tons due to the suspension of production at Azovstal and Avdiivka Coke.
As reported earlier, in January-March 2023, Metinvest reduced steel production by 75% compared to the same period in 2022 to 491 thousand tons, pig iron production also by 75% to 448 thousand tons, and coke production by 59% to 318 thousand tons, including a 1% increase in commercial coke production to 213 thousand tons.
In the first half of 2023, the Group reduced steel production by 57% year-on-year to 1.032 million tonnes, pig iron by 59% to 918 thousand tonnes, and coke by 40% to 648 thousand tonnes, including a 7% increase in commercial coke production to 429 thousand tonnes.
“In 2022, Metinvest decreased steel production by 69% compared to 2021, to 2.918 million tons, pig iron by 72%, to 2.743 million tons, coke by 64%, to 1.653 million tons, including commercial coke by 49%, to 811 thousand tons.
“Metinvest comprises mining and metallurgical enterprises located in Ukraine, Europe and the USA.
Metinvest’s major shareholders are SCM Group (71.24%) and Smart Holding (23.76%), which jointly manage the company.
Metinvest Holding LLC is the management company of Metinvest Group.
