Ukraine in 2022-23 marketing year (MY) increased sunflower exports by 14% and reduced its processing by 83%, producing its lowest volume since 2009-2010 MY, said oil market analyst at APK-Inform Svetlana Kirichok.
“During the season, there was a record and uncontrolled export of sunflower from Ukraine, which occurred against the background of a decline in oil refining and export of sunflower oil due to the limited work of the ports. The main volume of exports (79%) for September-May came to the EU countries, namely Romania and Bulgaria, which at the expense of Ukrainian raw materials substantially loaded their own enterprises and managed to increase the export of sunflower oil,” – she explained.
According to Kirichok, the imposition of unilateral bans on imports of sunflower to the EU has led to the fact that in April the export of Ukrainian oilseeds fell to its lowest level since April 2022, and a very large amount of sunflower was redirected to the domestic market.
The expert predicts that sunflower exports from Ukraine in 2022-23 MY will reach 2 million tons, which will be a historical maximum for the industry.
“According to our estimate, at the beginning of June, the sunflower balances (conditionally for the whole country) were about 1.6 million tons, which is one of the lowest for many years, and even with minimal export volumes they will not be able to provide full work of processing enterprises in June-August,” – she said.
In general, since the beginning of 2022/23 MY in Ukraine was processed about 10.5 million tons of oilseeds, which was one of the lowest rates over the past seven seasons. Until the end of the current season (in June-August) may be processed about 1.2 million tons – this is the minimum for this period over the past 12 seasons, the expert stated.
Kirichok expects an increase in sunflower production in 2023 due to the expansion of cultivated area to 5.5 million hectares, which is 13% more than a year earlier. At the same time, the total supply of oilseeds will decrease by 10% due to the reduction of carry-over stocks and yield potential, which will happen due to the prolonged sowing season and saving by agrarians of material and technical resources, in particular pesticides.
“If sunflower exports will show rates close to those of 2021/22-2022/23 MY, and exports from deep-sea ports will remain unstable, the country is expected to further reduce processing volumes,” summarized the expert.
Kernel Agro-Industrial Group, as of mid-May, has fulfilled 95% of its plans to sow spring crops, allocating 35% of the area for sunflower and 18% for soybeans, the company said on Facebook.
“Agroclimatic features of the current season: a large amount of precipitation in March and April, a high level of subsurface water in some regions and, accordingly, the waterlogging of much of the fields – have significantly adjusted the production program of agricultural enterprises “Kernel”,” the company said in its information.
As reported, the sunflower accounts for 35% of sown area, or 120 thousand hectares, the corn – 24%, or 85 thousand hectares, the soybean – 18%, or 65 thousand hectares.
Moreover, winter wheat accounts for 17%, or 60.4 thousand hectares in the structure of areas under crops. Areas under rape and perennial grasses are traditionally insignificant, the holding said.
It is stated that Kharkiv cluster was able to carry out seeding on 28 thousand hectares, and another 1 thousand hectares were left without treatment because of security reasons, as these lands are located 40 km from the front line – in Kupiansky area. As of May 16, 100% of the planned areas for the season were sown in the cluster.
According to Alexander Zvyagintsev, deputy head of production of the Kharkiv cluster, 35% of the area is planted to winter wheat, 30% to sunflower, 15% to winter rape, 10% to corn, and 10% to soybeans.
Druzhba Nova” cluster team in Sumy region took 177 thousand hectares of arable land for the future harvest, while 7 thousand hectares near the Russian border were left uncultivated.
Druzhba Nova” cluster head for production, Igor Tihonchuk, said that corn and sunflower are already being sown; 20% and 35% of the crop is under crop cultivation correspondingly. Sowing of soybeans, which will take 24% of the area, will be completed by May 25. Sowing of winter wheat will occupy 17% of the area.
According to the holding, because of the oversaturated fields, some early spring technological operations have been canceled, replaced or shifted in time. The shift in timing affected the beginning of the sowing season, which in all regions began in late April, which is two weeks later than the traditional dates.
Kernel Agronomic reported favorable sowing conditions for sunflower and corn, which were sown in parallel to accelerate the pace of the sowing season.
“Most agroclusters have completed corn and sunflower seeding and are completing soybean seeding. This is a heat-loving crop, the conditions for sowing which were not favorable until May 5-6. Despite the vagaries of weather, 80% of areas for the next soybean crop we plan to sow at the optimum time for the crop, “- summed up the agricultural holding.
“Kernel” before the war was the world’s number one producer of sunflower oil (about 7% of world production) and its export (about 12%), as well as the biggest producer and seller of bottled sunflower oil in Ukraine. The company was also engaged in cultivation of other agricultural products and their sale.
In FY2022 (July-2021 – June-2022), the holding posted a net loss of $41 mln versus $506 mln net profit in the previous FY, while its revenue decreased by 5% to $5.332 bln and EBITDA decreased by 3.7 times to $220 mln.
Agroholding KSG Agro in 2023, the sunflower area will be reduced by 15% compared to last year – down to 7.3 thousand hectares, the press service of the agricultural holding.
“We are fully satisfied with the weather conditions in which the sowing campaign takes place. Stock of moisture in the soil is quite sufficient. Warm weather since the beginning of May contributes to efficient seeding to get quality sunflower crops”, – noted in KSG Agroo.
During the sowing campaign there are three John Deere DB 55 sowing complexes involved, 700 hectares have already been sown with seeds from Syngenta, Limagrain and Euralis.
A year earlier, the agricultural holding sowed sunflowers on 8.4 thousand hectares. The average yield was 18 cwt/ha.
Vertically integrated holding KSG Agro is engaged in pig breeding, as well as the production, storage, processing and sale of grain and oilseeds. Its land bank is about 21 thousand hectares, which are located in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnitsky and Kherson regions.
According to Agroholding, it is one of the top 5 pork producers in Ukraine.
In 2021, the holding increased its net profit by 16 times compared with 2020 – up to $20.27 million, its earnings – by 44%, to $30.75 million, and it increased EBITDA by half – to $12.28 million. The data for 2022 has not yet been published.
The owner and chairman of the board of directors of KSG Agro is Sergey Kasyanov.
Ukraine will temporarily refrain from exporting grain and sunflower to Poland until the new season in order to solve the problem of overstocking the Polish market and protests of Polish farmers, the Polish Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development reported, citing Ukrainian Minister of Agricultural Policy and Food Nicholas Solski.
“We all understand who is to blame for this situation, but we must solve the problem. Therefore, Ukraine will refrain from exporting wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflowers to Poland (until the new season),” the Polish agency quoted Solsky from a joint press conference on Friday with his Polish colleague Robert Telus at the border with Ukraine in Dorohusk.
“The Ukrainian side made a proposal to very much limit for some time, and at the moment even stop the flow of grain to Poland,” Telus said, in turn.
As reported, April 5, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky at a meeting with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki in Warsaw said that the parties have found a way out of the problem of Ukrainian grain exports to Poland.
“We discussed the issues of our farmers – Polish and Ukrainian. We have found a way out. I believe that in the coming days, weeks we will finally solve all the issues, because there cannot be any difficulties between such close partners and real friends as Poland and Ukraine,” Zelenski said.
Earlier, the governments of Poland and Romania announced their intention to ask the European Commission to develop mechanisms that would help avoid price dumping to the detriment of local farmers.
Polish farmers threatened to disrupt the events during Zelenski’s visit to Warsaw, and Polish Minister of Agricultural Policy Henryk Kowalczyk resigned.
If the international community had been able to “push” Russia to increase ship inspections in the Bosporus, Ukraine would have been able to reduce the flow of grain traffic through European countries, Solsky said then, in turn.
Ukraine processed about 4.48 million tons of sunflower seeds in the four months of the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, September-August), the lowest since 2015/2016 MY.
According to the APK-Inform agency’s website on Monday, oilseed processing was slowed by the crisis in the country’s energy sector, limits on electricity use and deliberate delays by the Russian side in inspecting vessels passing through the “grain corridor.”
According to the agency, a total of 10.4 million tons of sunflower may be processed in Ukraine in 2022/2023 MY, which is 10% less than the previous season, while the export of sunflower oil may decrease by 8% compared to the previous season and amount to 4.15 million tons, the lowest since 2015/2016 MY.
At the same time, a separate factor affecting oilseeds processing and sunflower oil exports in the current season was the growth of exports of sunflower seeds without processing – for September-December 2022, almost 1.2 million tons of them were exported from Ukraine, which was half of the analysts’ forecast for the entire MY.
“This figure is atypically high for the industry, it contributes to a significant increase in competition for raw materials, higher prices for them, even when the price of demand for sunflower oil decreases, and as a result – a more rapid reduction of sunflower supply in the market,” – the agency quotes its analyst Svetlana Kirichok.
She also stressed that one should not expect a substantial increase in processing, at least in February-March 2023, as the situation in the energy sector of Ukraine remains unchanged and the limits on electricity consumption are still in force. In addition, in March the “grain agreement” expires, which will require a new prolongation.
As reported, Ukraine from January 1-15, 2023 exported 93 thousand tons of sunflower seeds, which is 2.5 times less compared to the same period last year, while the export of sunflower oil halved to 148 thousand tons.
Three dry cargo vessels with corn and sunflower meal departed from Ukrainian ports on Wednesday, the Joint Coordinating Centre (JCC) has reported.
“On January 4, three ships left Ukrainian ports, carrying a total of 197,851 tonnes of grain and other food under the Black Sea Grain Initiative,” the JCC said.
Three bulk carriers – Presinge (70,514 tonnes of corn), Shen Yu 79 (64,667 tonnes of corn) and Mona KH (44,670 tonnes of corn and 18,000 sunflower meal) – are heading to China.
Seventy applications to join the Black Sea Grain Initiative have been submitted, the center said.
In addition, six ships are awaiting permission to enter the Ukrainian ports, 26 loaded dry cargo ships are waiting to sail to their destinations.
“As of January 4, the total tonnage of grain and other foodstuffs exported from the three Ukrainian ports is 16,630,516 tonnes. A total of 1,239 voyages (616 inbound and 616 outbound) have been enabled so far,” the JCC said.
