The global equity market is approaching the formation of a bubble, according to UBS global equity strategist Andrew Garthwaite.
Garthwaite, whose opinion is cited by MarketWatch, compares the current conditions to the dot-com boom of the late 1990s and the Japanese market bubble of the 1980s. According to him, the stock market already meets six of the seven criteria for a bubble.
First, the structural bull market, which UBS defines as a period when the dynamics of stocks over ten years outpaces the dynamics of bonds by at least 5% per year, has ended.
Secondly, corporate profits are under pressure, and their growth is slowing, especially in cyclical sectors.
Thirdly, the breadth of the market has been lost. Its dynamics are determined by the stock prices of a small number of tech giants, while smaller companies lag behind.
Fourth, 25 years have passed since the last bubble.
Fifth, investors believe that “this time it’s different,” expecting a significant increase in productivity due to generative artificial intelligence (AI).
Sixth, retail investors are actively involved in the auction, buying speculative assets ranging from “meme” stocks to cryptocurrencies.
At the same time, the seventh criterion – loose monetary policy (LMP) – has not yet been met.
We should be worried if the yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds exceeds 5%, according to Mr. Hartwright. Currently, it is about 4.65%, but UBS predicts that it will decline to 4.25% by the end of the year.
The expert also prefers “defensive” stocks of issuers with low debt burdens, such as SAP, Microsoft Corp. and BAE Systems, to securities of non-financial companies in cyclical industries.
In the UK, he sees opportunities for investors in interest rate-sensitive sectors, such as real estate and utilities, which are trading at a significant discount.
