Vacancy of shopping and entertainment centers in Kiev decreased from 16.3% in 2023 to 15.2% at the end of the first half of 2024, said the head of legal consulting department of UTG Konstantin Oleynik.
“At the end of last year, about 21.4% of space was de facto vacant, due to the closure of foreign department stores (IKEA, Inditex, H&M and others). The actual vacancy rate was 16.3%. Thanks to the opening of most foreign operators, the vacancy gap with actually closed stores has narrowed,” he said.
According to UTG research, the vacancy rate is higher in regional (18.4%) and district (17%) shopping centers, lower in specialized (9.8%) and district (7%) shopping centers.
The expert noted the trend of decreasing effective demand of the population. The growth of household expenditures on housing and utilities services and CP payment continues (at the end of 2023 this category was 18.8% and with the growth of electricity tariffs there is further growth), health care (4.7%), transportation (4.8%), communication (4.3%), education (3.6%). Cumulatively, these categories drain 36.1% from the family budget. Food and alcohol accumulate 43.4% of expenditures. The share of retail network (clothing and footwear, electronics, household goods, cafes and restaurants, entertainment, other goods) in the structure of expenditures is only 16.0% per family ($73.4 or 2,684.5 UAH per month). Inflation and rapid price growth lead to a reduction in individual savings (about 4.4% in 2023).
In general, general savings and cost rationalization are recorded, for the mall market this entails a decrease in attendance and adjustment of rental rates. Compared to pre-war rates, rates for some product groups have halved or more.
“Food supermarkets have become one of the few operators able to generate sustainable footfall and pay moderately high rental rates ($10-20/sq. m in August 2024), while most department stores, entertainment (cinemas, DDCs), fitness centers are aiming for a minimum fixed payment (around $1/sqm) with an additional RTO (fixed payments of $2 to $12/sqm prevailed before the war), shifting the risk to the developer,” Oleynik reported.
According to UTG research, taking into account the current income level of the population, solvent demand is able to ensure successful functioning for 2 million 313 thousand sq. m. in the capital, and in the second quarter of 2024 there were already 2 million 457 thousand sq. m. in operation.
Competition continues to intensify: large shopping centers with a total area of 250 thousand square meters are declared for opening in 2024-2025. Among them are Ocean Mall (GLA 110 thousand sq. m), Lukiyanivka (47 thousand sq. m), White Lines shopping mall (28 thousand sq. m), New Ray (34.5 thousand sq. m), April Mall (36.5 thousand sq. m), BalticSky (20 thousand sq. m). There is a possibility that most of the announced openings may be postponed to a later period.
According to Oleinik’s estimation, the commissioning of the declared projects will bring about a surplus of retail space and gradual redistribution of consumer flows between objects, vacancy growth and downward correction of rental rates. At the existing level of incomes and expenditures of the population, the vacancy rate may reach 17% in 2025.
UTG was established in 2001. It has developed more than 1300 real estate concepts. During the years of work with the company’s participation 4.7 million square meters of commercial space in Ukraine have been leased out.
KYIV, REAL ESTATE, UTG, Vacancy Shopping and Entertainment Center
Over 70,000 square meters of retail space in trade and entertainment centers in Kyiv and regional centers were leased in 2019 with the participation of UTG consulting company (Kyiv) as a broker, the press service of the company has said. “During the company’s activity and as of the end of 2019 about 4.7 million square meters of space have been leased in various shopping centers in Kyiv and regional centers of Ukraine, of which more than 70,000 square meters this year,” the company said.
As reported, in 2018 space commissioned with the participation of UTG amounted to 72,000 square meters, and in 2017 some 54,000 square meters.
In particular, in 2019 with the assistance of UTG, agreements were signed with Leroy Merlin Ukraine and Multiplex cinema in the Odesa shopping center Riviera.
In addition, the new Kyiv shopping centers Smart Plaza Obolon, Cherry Mall, and others were launched with a 100% occupancy rate.
UTG (Kyiv) was established in 2001. It specializes in consulting commercial and residential real estate, brokerage of retail premises and comprehensive support of development projects.
Activity of international and Ukrainian retailers has revived attention of developers to building retail real estate in all large cities of Ukraine, UTG consulting company (Kyiv) has told Interfax-Ukraine. “The decline in consumer confidence in Europe, the rapid development of online commerce, the high level of competition in the clothing and footwear segment, the growth of staff salaries led to a decrease in profit margins and a pile of inventory at the largest European retailers, forced them to look for new markets, stimulated exit and the opening of stores in markets of countries not previously covered,” Head of Strategic Consulting at UTG Kostiantyn Oliynyk said.
So, after many years of negotiations, the leading international retailers presented earlier in the country began to return to the national market of Ukraine: H&M, Decathlon, Koton, Defacto, Polo Ralph Lauren, Kilian, AllSaints, PennyBlack, Tru Trussardi, Laurel, XTI, Santoni, Jo Malone, Daniel Hechter and others.
According to him, by the end of 2019, at the various stages of implementation (construction, preparatory work, concept) in Kyiv and the nearest suburbs there are 44 projects with a total rental area of 1.46 million square meters, in Odesa – 15 projects with a total rental area of 419,400 square meters, in the Dnipro – more than 100,000 square meters, in Kharkiv – more than 124,000 square meters, in Lviv – more than 80,000 square meters.
At the same time, the purchasing power and potential of retail space is limited by the size of salaries (in Kyiv – UAH 16,249; in Odesa – UAH 9,473; in Kharkiv – UAH 9,453, in Lviv – UAH 9,729), the pace of their growth, and the size of consumer expenses (in Kyiv – 62.2% of total family income; in Odesa – 67.6%; in Kharkiv – 62.9%, in Lviv – 71.80%) and the growth of the cost of housing and utility services, maintenance/rental of housing, travel, transportation, communication, education, medicine, as well as the level of inflation and the exchange rate of the national currency.
In addition, the success and functioning of retail real estate is significantly influenced by the volume and structure of the existing supply. So, in Kyiv there are five regional, 27 district, 24 micro-district, 19 specialized and 32 separate hypermarkets with a total area of just over 1.6 million square meters. The current offer of Odesa is 449,100 square meters, Kharkiv – 503,400 square meters, and Lviv – 399,100 square meters.
At the same time, the retail real estate offer is constantly increasing. In 2019 alone, the Smart Plaza Obolon micro district shopping centers (GLA is 11,800 square meters) and the Oasis shopping center (GLA is 7,800 square meters) were opened in Kyiv, and the regional River Mall (GLA is 62,200 square meters) and Blockbuster Mall (GLA is 135,000 square meters), the Araks specialized center in Khodosivka (GLA is 10,000 square meters) and street retail located at 2, Kyrpy Street (GLA is 2,500 square meters).
In addition, on December 7, the Karavan Outlet updated shopping center (GLA is 45,300 square meters) was announced for opening after restyling and reconstruction.
“As a result, in the case of the implementation and commissioning of all declared large-scale projects in local markets, a surplus of retail space may occur, which will entail a redistribution of consumer flows between facilities, an increase in vacancy and a correction in rental rates downward, especially in obsolete facilities with serious conceptual flaws,” Oliynyk said.
In his opinion, the approach of saturation and changes in the market are already becoming noticeable, and some developers have begun comprehensive modernization, redevelopment, specialization, or restyling of their retail facilities. For example, such facilities as Karavan, Metrograd, Silver Breeze, InSilver, Lukianivka Kvadrat, Gorodok, Magellan, Marmalade, Dream Town and Sirius started the update. In addition, Oliynyk said that a number of owners of the malls plan large-scale changes in the near future.
Average vacancy of business centers in Khmelnytsky was 6.7% by August 2019 and by late 2020 it is planned to expand total supply of office space by 24,100 square meters thanks to the launch of eight new business centers, UTG consulting company (Kyiv) has reported.
“In 2018, supply in Khmelnytsky was expanded with two business centers with a lettable area of 8,400 square meters: Luxury class B business center (GLA is 3,700 0 square meters) and Parus class A business center (GLA is 4,700 square meters) However, the main increase in office space in the city was seen in 2016, when 26.4% of the total market supply was built or reconstructed and put into operation, or in absolute terms – lettable area of 12,400 square meters,” UTG Senior Analyst Oksana Gavrilevich told Interfax-Ukraine.
According to her, as of August 2019 in Khmelnytsky there were 19 office buildings with a total lettable area of 51,100 square meters, which corresponds to an indicator of 187.8 square meters per 1,000 inhabitants.
In the structure of supply, business centers of class A occupy 9.2% of the total supply (4,700 square meters), class B – 52.4% (26,800 square meters) and class C – 38.4% (19,600 square meters).
The average vacancy rate in the city’s business centers in August 2019 in terms of classes was: 19% for class A, 7.3% for class B and 2.9% for class C.
The requested rental rates (excluding VAT and OPEX) in office premises in August were: for class A – UAH 300 per square meter ($12), class B – UAH 142 per square meter ($ 5.7), class C – UAH 94.7 per square meter ($3.8).
“For the coming years, office premises are announced for commissioning only in class B. Given the timely commissioning of new projects, by the end of 2021, the total leased area of the city’s business centers will be 65,300 square meters, or 239.8 square meters per 1,000 inhabitants,” Gavrilevich said.
On Wednesday, July 10, at 10.30, the press center of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency will host a press conference by UTG entitled “Half-Year Results in Real Estate Market of Ukraine 2019: Main Trends and Challenges.” Participants: UTG Director Yevhenia Loktionova, head of the strategic consulting department at UTG Kostiantyn Oliynyk, deputy head of the strategic consulting department at UTG Oksana Havrylevych (8/5a Reitarska Street). Accreditation of journalists by phone: +38 067 216 4343, +38 044 537 2364, or by e-mail: pr@utg.kiev.ua.
UTG consulting company (Kyiv) has signed an exclusive brokerage contract for the second line of the Appolo shopping mall in Dnipro. “Currently, UTG is looking for tenants for the second line of Appolo. The second line of the mall, located on the 36, Titova Street includes three levels with a total area of 40,000 square meters, 30,000 square meters of which are for leasing. The launch is planned in Q3 2019,” UTG said.
According to the concept developed by the company’s specialists, the facility will store a food supermarket with an area of 4,400 square meters, a cinema of 3,000 square meters, operators of goods for children, a fashion gallery, a large area of restaurants and food courts.
“After the launch of the second line, it is planned that the daily attendance of the shopping mall will be 20,000 people per day. Thus, it will become one of the most visited and popular commercial properties in Dnipro,” Director at UTG Yevhenia Loktionova said.
UTG (Kyiv) was founded in 2011. Its core business is accompanying of development projects.
More than 100 real estate projects were launched with the participation of UTG. Among them are Lavina Mall, New Way, Ocean Plaza, Gulliver, Piramida and Komod shopping centers (all based in Kyiv), Megamall (Vinnytsia), Most City Center (Dnipro), French Boulevard (Kharkiv) and Global.UA shopping centers (Zhytomyr).
According to the unified public register of legal entities and individual entrepreneurs, as of April 1, 2019, the share of 30% in the share capital of UTG LLC (Kyiv) belongs to Melnyk, 65% to Vadym Neposedov, and 5% to Artem Neposedov.
