Toronto and Vancouver saw the most significant declines in housing prices among the 23 largest global markets analyzed by UBS in 2026.
Over the past four quarters, real housing prices in both Canadian cities have fallen by approximately 10%, according to the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026.
The correction was particularly severe in Toronto. From 2014 to 2022, real prices there doubled due to rapid population growth, investment demand, and cheap financing.
After 2022, the situation changed. Due to rising interest rates, restrictions on foreign buyers, and an increase in supply, real prices are now nearly 30% below their peak, according to UBS.
In Vancouver, real prices have fallen by nearly 10% since mid-2025 and are about 20% below their 2022 peak. Home sales have dropped to their lowest level in about 25 years, while the number of properties on the market remains significantly above the long-term average.
As a result, UBS now classifies both cities as only moderate risk: Toronto’s index stands at 0.63, and Vancouver’s at 0.62. Just a few years ago, the Canadian markets were considered among the most overheated in the world.
A correction is also underway in Germany, though less sharply. Real prices in Frankfurt and Munich have fallen by nearly 4% over the past year. In Frankfurt, housing prices—adjusted for inflation—are already about 25% below their 2021 peak.
At the same time, UBS notes that a structural housing shortage persists in both Germany and many other major cities, which limits the potential for further price declines.
Kyiv was not included in this study.
