Ukraine’s economy may grow by about 4% in 2025, but the outlook remains fragile and depends entirely on external factors. This is stated in the latest report of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) Regional Economic Prospects: Under Pressure.
According to the document, the main source of support for the Ukrainian economy is international financial aid, which is used to cover budget expenditures, social payments and defense. An additional driver of growth is the export of agricultural products through the EU “solidarity corridors” and alternative routes along the Danube and overland, which partially compensates for restrictions on maritime transportation.
There has also been a gradual recovery of infrastructure, including roads, bridges and the power grid, which is supporting economic activity.
However, the EBRD warns of high risks. Among them are a protracted war, high levels of public debt and inflation, as well as the vulnerability of export flows, which could be sharply reduced if sea routes are blocked.
According to the bank’s experts, digitalization of public services, agro-technology and development of renewable energy remain promising areas for Ukraine. However, this requires sustainable peace or conflict freezing, deeper integration with the EU market, as well as progress in judicial and anti-corruption reforms.
At the end of 2024, Ukraine’s GDP was estimated at around $160 bln. More than 60% of exports were agro-products (grain, oilseeds and processed products). The metallurgy, IT and energy sectors also retain potential for recovery.
The EBRD emphasizes that the Ukrainian economy is “under pressure”, but with continued international support and access to external markets, it can grow rapidly, laying the foundations for post-war transformation.
