Export of agricultural products from Ukraine in the context of the Russian military invasion could reach 5 million tons per month due to increased shipments through the unblocked Black Sea ports, but an estimate of 3.5-4.5 million tons per month looks more realistic.
As reported on the website of the consulting agency Ukragroconsult on Monday, the current 2022/23 marketing year (MY, July-June) will be non-standard due to the absence of traditional seasonal export peaks that occur as the harvest progresses.
“If you look at monthly exports from the beginning of 2018/19 MY, then seasonality is clearly visible. Conventionally, Ukrainian grain exports can be divided into three stages (waves): the wheat-barley wave (begins in July-August), the first corn wave (begins in September-August). October) and the second corn wave (begins in February-March, when the supply of corn from South America disappears from the world market),” the agency said in a statement.
According to him, there will be no significant export peaks this season due to significant leftovers from last season’s harvest ready for export, but a gradual increase in shipments will be noticeable as the work of seaports normalizes.
“Current shipments from Odessa ports are still undergoing a test period, market participants are still evaluating further prospects, so it is too early to say with confidence that Ukraine will be able to fully realize its grain export potential, but exports in August may already show a significant increase,” explains ” Ukragroconsult”.
As reported, since the beginning of 2022/2023 MY, Ukraine has exported 2.98 million tons of grain crops, including 1.94 million tons of corn (65% of the total supply), 783 thousand tons of wheat (26%) and 257 thousand tons of barley (8.8%).
In addition, in July 2022, Ukraine exported 2.66 million tons of grain and oilseeds and agricultural products for export by all modes of transport, which is 22.7% more than in June.
