Ukraine is fully included in the “yellow zone” of epidemic danger, however, the growth in the incidence of coronavirus (COVID-19) is expected to resume from the middle of January, experts from Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) said.
“We at KSE expect further unloading of the medical system in the next one to two weeks, and after that, from about the middle of January, we expect an increase in COVID-19 incidence,” Head of the KSE Center for Health Economics Yuriy Hanychenko said at a weekly online briefing on Wednesday.
KSE experts do not expect Ukraine to enter the “green zone” of epidemic danger in the first quarter of 2022.
However, speaking about forecasts for 2022, Hanychenko said that Ukraine needs to reduce the incidence rate by two to three times in order to reach the “green level” of epidemic danger.
Analyst at the KSE Center for Health Economics Kateryna Kuzminova, in turn, said that over the past week, the death rate from COVID-19 in the country has decreased by 25%.
“Since the death rate is a deferred indicator and mortality trends are following the number of new cases and hospitalizations with a lag of several weeks, we expect a continuation of the decline in the coming weeks,” she said.
Commenting on the vaccination situation, KSE experts said that over the past week the rate of vaccination has decreased by 25%, but it is expected that they will be able to be compensated by the introduction of booster and additional doses of the vaccine.
Ukraine is approaching the WHO target of vaccination of 40% of the population by the end of 2021, more than 40% of the population in 20 of 25 regions of Ukraine received one dose of the vaccine, according to KSE. The highest level of vaccination is observed in Kyiv and Kyiv region (respectively 72% and 58%), the lowest in Zakarpattia (32%).
