Despite the negative expectations, Ukraine retained its leadership in the global sunflower oil market in 2023-2024 marketing year (MY), accounting for 42% of the global production, while Russia accounted for 29%, UkrAgroConsult, a Ukrainian information and analytical agency, reports.
The analysts referred to the forecast of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, according to which in 2023-2024 MY the forecast for Ukraine’s gross sunflower production due to higher yields was increased by 27% to 15.5 mln tonnes compared to 2022-2023 MY, and for Russia – by 5% to 17.1 mln tonnes.
The high exports of sunflower oil were achieved due to the increase in harvest. Stable operation of the sea corridor is becoming an important point for Ukraine in realization of the export potential: the country increased exports by 9% compared to 2022-2023 MY, Russia – by 10%, experts noted.
They noted that since the beginning of the war, the markets for sunflower oil have been redistributed. For Ukraine, the European Union has become the key sales destination. In addition, Turkey has reoriented its purchases from Russia to Ukraine, while India and China continued to increase Russian imports.
According to analysts’ forecast, 2024-2025 MY will be a bad harvest year for sunflower. According to the current USDA forecast for September 2024, the global sunflower production is estimated to be the lowest in the last four seasons due to unfavorable weather conditions in the key producing countries – 50.6 mln tonnes, which is 10% less than the previous season. At the same time, Ukraine is expected to reduce the production of this crop by 19% to 12.5 mln tonnes compared to 2023-2024 MY, and Russia – by 6% to 16.0 mln tonnes.
“Ukraine will retain the leadership, but the share in the global production will decrease to 41% vs. 42% in 2023/24 MY in favor of Russia – 33% vs. 29%. The forecast for Russia seems quite optimistic,” UkrAgroConsult stated.
