This article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of August 2025. The analysis was prepared based on the latest data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, as well as leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Maksym Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax Ukraine, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
For Ukraine, the first eight months of 2025 were characterized by the logic of “managed stability”: the economy remained efficient and gradually adapted to military restrictions, but without a qualitative leap in investment. In its review, the NBU noted that in the first half of the year, the economy grew by about 1% quarterly (Q/Q), meaning that the recovery continued but remained moderate.
“In January-August 2025, the key signal is not ”high rates” but the ability of the economy to operate under constant risks. We see a gradual recovery in demand and service sectors, but the investment component is still weak: businesses often choose to repair and replace rather than expand. This means that growth is not yet translating into modernization. The strategic task is to transfer external support and financial stability into long-term projects: energy, logistics, processing, defense technologies,” explains Maksym Urakin.
The inflationary background in the summer of 2025 showed a gradual easing. According to the State Statistics Service, in August 2025, consumer prices decreased by 0.2% mom, and annual inflation (up to August 2024) was 13.2%. Core inflation was estimated at 11.4% yoy; the consumer price index for January-August (to December of the previous year) was +6.0%.
Monetary policy in this period remained tight but predictable: The NBU kept the key policy rate at 15.5%, emphasizing the importance of consolidating the disinflationary trend and controlling expectations. The discussion materials of the NBU Monetary Policy Committee explicitly state the logic behind the rate and the role of interest rate policy in reducing pressure on the foreign exchange market and reserves.
“Inflation in 2025 is not only a monetary story, but also a supply-side story: weather, harvests, logistics, energy restrictions, and the import component. That is why the 15.5% rate is more of a “confidence anchor” than a tool for accelerating growth. The NBU’s task is to prevent expectations from being inflated and people from fleeing to the currency, especially when the trade balance is weak. But at the same time, the government must do its part: stimulate production and competition, otherwise inflationary pressure will return in waves,” emphasizes Maxim Urakin.
Foreign trade remained one of the main channels of macro risks. According to the State Statistics Service, in January-April 2025, exports of goods amounted to $13.31 billion (93.1% compared to the same period in 2024), while imports amounted to $24.82 billion (112.6%). This reflected a persistent gap between the need for imports (energy, equipment, critical goods) and export opportunities.
International reserves were a critical compensator for trade tensions and military risks. According to the NBU, as of September 1, 2025, the reserves amounted to $46.03 billion, and in August they increased by 7.0%, primarily due to significant receipts from international partners and lower net sales of foreign currency by the NBU.
The debt burden remained high. Public reviews based on the data of the Ministry of Finance stated that as of August 31, 2025, public and publicly guaranteed debt reached about UAH 7.95 trillion (≈ $192.7 billion). Additionally, the specialized resource of the Verkhovna Rada estimated the public debt as of 08/31/2025 at UAH 7.6572 trillion.
Global economy
In 2025, the global economy was on a low but relatively steady growth trajectory, with different speeds across regions and sensitivity to trade risks and financial conditions.
In the World Economic Outlook update (July 2025), the IMF forecast global growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, explaining the revision by better financial conditions and temporary “lead effects” in trade.
At the same time, the World Bank in its Global Economic Prospects (June 2025) estimated that the global economy is “consolidating” at a lower rate of about 2.7% in 2025-2026.
“Global growth in 2025 looks like a balance between resilience and vulnerability: financial conditions have become a little softer, but structural risks – protectionism, energy shocks, debt – have not disappeared. The US is supporting global demand, but remains sensitive to rates and the consumption cycle; Europe is adding slowly; China is keeping up the pace through industry and exports, but domestic demand is recovering unevenly. For Ukraine, this means that we should not rely on “strong external markets” alone. We need high value-added niches where we can be competitive even in a world of slow growth,” says Maksym Urakin.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that in the second quarter of 2025, U.S. real GDP grew by 3.0% at an annualized rate (advance estimate). Among the key factors, the BEA cited a decline in imports and an increase in consumer spending (partially offset by a decline in investment and exports).
Eurozone/EU. According to Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate, in the second quarter of 2025, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.1% qoq in the euro area and by 0.2% qoq in the EU. This reflected a very moderate recovery in economic activity compared to the previous quarter.
China. According to preliminary estimates released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the country’s GDP grew by 5.3% yoy in the first half of 2025, and by 5.2% yoy in the second quarter of 2025. Thus, China maintained its growth rate above 5% on an annualized basis.
India. According to the official press release (PIB), India’s real GDP in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025-26 (April-June 2025) was estimated at +7.8% yoy. The indicator confirmed India’s high dynamics against the backdrop of generally moderate global growth.
Turkey. TurkStat reported that Turkey’s GDP grew by 4.8% yoy in the second quarter of 2025 (according to the chained volume index). This meant an acceleration of annual growth compared to previous quarters, although the structure of demand and foreign trade factors remained important for assessing sustainability.
Conclusion.
For Ukraine, January-August 2025 was a period of relative macrofinancial manageability: inflation slowed to 13.2% yoy in August, reserves grew to $46.03 billion as of September 1, and monetary policy remained tight, keeping the key policy rate at 15.5%. At the same time, the trade imbalance and high debt burden continue to pose medium-term risks that can be mitigated not by “stabilization” but only by structural changes – investment, productivity, processing, and higher value-added exports.
“The end of August 2025 shows an important thing: financial stability in Ukraine is holding, but it does not yet guarantee an economic breakthrough. Reserves and international support are a time resource that must be converted into production and infrastructure, not just “plugging the gaps” with imports. If we do not increase our export capacity and domestic investment, external shocks will again become decisive. There is a window of opportunity, but it is measured in years, not months,” summarized Maksym Urakin.
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