The real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in January 2025 grew by 2% compared to January 2024, while in December 2024 the growth was recorded at 1.6% compared to the same period of the previous year, according to the Monthly Economic Monitoring of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).
“The main reasons for the accelerated growth are a smaller decline in agriculture, which now reflects only livestock indicators, the absence of massive scheduled power outages, and an increase in private consumption. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, real production in livestock is slightly declining. The number of cattle has declined, while the situation in poultry farming is more favorable. According to IER estimates, real gross value added (GVA) in agriculture decreased by 0.9% year-on-year in January,” the study says.
It is emphasized that the approach of the frontline and the complete closure of mines near Pokrovsk have negatively affected the pace of economic recovery in Ukraine and led to a decline in the mining industry.
At the same time, the situation with iron ore production remains positive. So far, according to the IER, real GVA in the mining industry decreased by 2.9% in January 2025 compared to the same period a year earlier. At the same time, the approaching frontline may have an even more negative impact on the performance of the extractive industry in the coming months.
However, the absence of planned massive power outages had a positive impact on the performance of the manufacturing industry. Domestic demand for the products of industries focused on the domestic market was also favorable. External demand also helped the steel industry. However, the IER notes that the statistical base was high in January. In general, although some industries showed a decrease in output, in the manufacturing industry, real gross domestic product increased by 3% in January (compared to January 2024).
“The destruction of electricity generation by the Russians was not fully compensated by repairs and new generation. In addition, the demand for electricity was lower this year due to warm weather and emergency power outages as a preventive measure during shelling. As a result, according to our estimates, the real GVA in the industry decreased by 5.1% in January (compared to January-2024),” the IER states.
At the same time, in trade, real gross domestic product continues to grow due to higher wages and social payments. Consumption is also growing amid high inflation expectations. In January, the real growth in trade gross domestic product (GDP) slowed to 4.9% (compared to January 2014). At the same time, due to the suspension of Russian gas transit to the EU, real GVA in transport decreased by 1.1% compared to the same period last year.
The IER added that Russia continues to attack Ukraine’s port infrastructure. In late January and early February, there were several attacks on the ports of Odesa, Izmail and Chornomorsk, which damaged port infrastructure. In January, Ukraine exported 6.6 million tons of goods by sea.
In January, 14 million tons of cargo were transported by rail, which is at the level of December 2024 and 1% less than in January 2024. Of these, 5.5 million tons were transported to ports and 2 million tons to the western border. Ore (44%), grain (38%), and ferrous metals (6%) account for the largest share of transportation.
In addition, in the first month of 2025, exports of goods fell by 6% compared to January 2024 and by 4% compared to December 2024, to $3.18 billion. Exports of agricultural goods continued to decline compared to previous months amid declining inventories. Agricultural exports fell by 18% yoy (compared to January-2024) to $1.85 billion due to a smaller harvest and lower carryover stocks at the beginning of the marketing year. Physical volumes of exports of key agricultural commodities fell even further, but export revenues were supported by higher prices and the gradual diversification of agricultural exports.
Merchandise imports fell to $5.55 bn in January, reflecting a seasonal decline in imports compared to December. In annual terms, imports increased by 9% (compared to the same period of the previous year). Imports of machinery and equipment amounted to $2.16 billion, up 17% compared to January 2024, in particular due to a sharp increase in imports of energy equipment ($431 million in January 2025 compared to $85 million in January 2024). At the same time, imports of cars fell.
Among other things, the IER forecasts real GDP growth of 2.9% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026.
As reported by the Ministry of Economy, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 1.5% in January-2025, driven by the construction industry, manufacturing, and domestic trade.
The World Bank also downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2025 to 2% from 6.5% in its June report, but improved it for 2026 to 7% from 5.1% in its Global Economic Outlook published on January 17.
The National Bank of Ukraine has also changed its forecasts. Given security risks and the difficult situation on the labor market, the NBU has lowered its real GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3.6%.
