Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth by the same period last year slowed to 8% in July from 15% in June, primarily due to a high statistical base as the rate of GDP decline slowed significantly in the third quarter of last year, according to the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).
“Economic activity is not yet close to pre-war levels: we estimate that GDP has fallen by 25% compared to July 2021,” the IEI said in its monthly economic monitor.
The institute estimated the increase in real gross value added (GVA) in July in the processing industry at more than 20% due to the recovery of all industries from a low base, while the extractive industry saw a small increase.
According to the IEI experts, agriculture grew by almost 5% in July, primarily due to the lower statistical base of July 2022. The grain harvest was close to last year’s due to higher yields.
“The growth rate of real GVA in transportation slowed to 9% y/y, while GVA in trade continued to grow rapidly, by about 27% y/y,” the report said.
As reported, the State Statistics Committee has not yet published its assessment of the dynamics of GDP of Ukraine in the second quarter, while at the end of the first quarter it reported a 10.5% decline in the economy.
Earlier, the IEI estimated Ukraine’s GDP growth in the second quarter of this year at about 20-21%: almost 22% in April, 20.9% in May and 15.3% in June.
According to the National Bank, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 18.3% in the second quarter. The NBU forecasts that the economic recovery will slow to 4.6% in the third quarter of 2023 and 1.8% in the fourth quarter, which would translate into year-on-year growth of 2.9%.
