The Experts Club analytical center assesses the situation in Ukraine’s warehouse real estate market in 2026 as a transition phase from post-shock recovery to a new growth cycle, in which the main constraints are not demand but a shortage of high-quality space, high construction costs, and security risks.
Following a sharp decline in 2022, when a significant portion of the Kyiv region’s warehouse infrastructure was damaged or destroyed, the market gradually resumed activity in 2023–2025. The most notable recovery occurred in the Kyiv region and in western Ukraine, primarily in the Lviv region.
By the end of 2025, the Kyiv warehouse market had shown the highest level of activity in the past decade. Gross absorption of warehouse space reached approximately 217,000 sq. m, which is 30% more than the previous year. New supply amounted to approximately 216,000 sq. m, and total supply effectively returned to pre-war levels—about 1.57 million sq. m.
Vacancy rates in the Kyiv market remained very low—around 3.5%. This means that despite the introduction of a significant volume of new space, the market is quickly absorbing it. For tenants, this creates a challenge in finding large, high-quality spaces, especially those exceeding 5,000–10,000 sq. m. For developers and property owners, however, this creates conditions for a gradual increase in rental rates and the launch of new projects.
In 2026, Experts Club expects more balanced dynamics. Following a record-breaking 2025, the volume of new supply in the Kyiv region may decline to approximately 90,000 sq. m. This means that the increase in supply will be significantly lower than last year, while demand from key tenant groups will remain steady.
The main drivers of demand remain retail, e-commerce, 3PL operators, the pharmaceutical sector, distributors, FMCG companies, and businesses that are restructuring their logistics to adapt to wartime conditions. Within the demand structure, the role of companies requiring not just “bare-bones warehouses” but modern Class A and B facilities with energy efficiency, autonomy, enhanced security, docking infrastructure, temperature control capabilities, and adaptation to pharmaceutical or food standards is growing.
Rental rates remain stable. In the Kyiv region, the prime rate in 2025 was approximately $5.3 per square meter per month, excluding VAT and operating costs, which corresponds to the pre-war peak level. In hryvnia terms, rates for dry warehouses have risen by approximately 9% since the start of the year and ranged between 200–250 UAH per sq. m per month. In 2026, a further moderate increase in rates is likely, particularly in the segment of high-quality properties with scarce characteristics.
The Lviv region remains the second key center for warehouse real estate development. Its advantages include relative security, proximity to the EU border, its role as a western logistics hub, and demand from relocated businesses, e-commerce, retail, and international operators. Average rates in the Lviv region for Class A and B warehouses in 2025 were approximately $5–5.5 per sq. m per month, and according to some estimates, $6–6.5 in high-quality properties.
At the same time, a local increase in vacancy rates is already noticeable in the Lviv region due to the introduction of new phases of warehouse complexes. This does not indicate oversupply, but signals a gradual transition of the market to a more competitive phase. The most promising areas remain those near the Polish border, routes toward Kyiv, and zones of future industrial parks.
In the central regions, particularly the Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, and Ternopil regions, demand is driven primarily by agricultural companies, local manufacturers, distributors, and businesses seeking to locate warehouses closer to domestic consumers. These regions lag behind Kyiv and Lviv in terms of liquidity but have potential for the development of Class B warehouses, agri-logistics, production-and-warehouse complexes, and regional distribution.
The eastern and frontline regions remain the highest-risk areas. There, demand is largely concentrated on temporary or lower-grade warehouse space, but investment activity is constrained by security concerns. Dnipro retains its status as a major industrial and logistics hub, but investors apply a higher risk premium to projects there.
A key trend for 2026 is the growing demand for specialized formats. This includes multi-temperature warehouses, pharmaceutical warehouses, food logistics facilities, e-commerce facilities, last-mile logistics near major cities, as well as build-to-suit projects tailored to specific tenants. The supply shortage is most acute in these formats.
A separate factor is energy resilience. Following attacks on the power grid, tenants are increasingly evaluating warehouses not only based on location and rent, but also on the presence of generators, alternative energy sources, high-quality engineering, backup power capabilities, fire safety, and stable operation during outages.
Investor interest in warehouse real estate is recovering but remains selective. The most attractive assets are ready-to-use or nearly ready Class A warehouses in the Kyiv and Lviv regions, as well as projects with reliable tenants and long-term leases. For investors, the key considerations are not only yield but also asset liquidity, tenant quality, location security, and the cost of completion.
Current market yields on high-quality warehouse assets in Ukraine may remain higher than in most EU countries due to a war risk premium. However, it is precisely this premium that is the main constraint on the widespread influx of institutional capital. Foreign investors are interested in the segment but are mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach or considering partnerships with local players.
For developers, 2026 will be challenging due to high construction costs. Rising costs of materials, energy, logistics, insurance, financing, and construction work are limiting the launch of new projects, especially without a prior lease agreement. Therefore, the share of speculative construction will remain limited, while build-to-suit and phased development will be more popular models.
Key market risks in 2026:
security threats and the risk of infrastructure damage;
a shortage of high-quality land plots near key transportation corridors;
high construction and financing costs;
currency risks associated with hryvnia-denominated rent payments;
a shortage of large ready-to-use lots;
limited access to long-term capital;
instability in energy supply;
caution among foreign investors.
At the same time, fundamental demand for warehouse real estate remains strong. The Ukrainian market is still structurally underserved with high-quality logistics space compared to Central European countries. The war has accelerated changes in logistics: businesses need more flexible warehouses, closer to consumers, with better engineering, autonomy, and the ability to quickly adjust supply chains.
According to Experts Club’s base scenario, in 2026, Ukraine’s warehouse real estate market will see moderate growth in rental rates, low vacancy rates in the Kyiv region, activity in the Lviv region, and a gradual expansion of high-quality supply in central regions. The greatest demand will be for Class A properties, multi-temperature warehouses, pharmaceutical logistics, last-mile warehouses, and build-to-suit projects.
The optimistic scenario anticipates a more active return of foreign capital, the launch of new industrial parks, and accelerated construction in western and central Ukraine. The negative scenario is linked to heightened security risks, further damage to logistics infrastructure, rising financing costs, and a decline in investment activity.
Experts Club Conclusion: warehouse real estate remains one of the most resilient segments of Ukraine’s commercial real estate market. By 2026, this market will no longer appear to be in crisis, but it will not yet be fully normalized. Its main characteristic is a shortage of quality supply while real demand from retail, logistics, e-commerce, pharmaceuticals, and distribution remains steady.
For developers, this means an opportunity to launch new projects provided they work closely with tenants. For investors, it is a chance to enter a segment with higher returns but increased risk. For tenants, it is a necessity to plan warehouse needs in advance, as finding a high-quality large warehouse “here and now” in Ukraine is becoming increasingly difficult.
