The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) rose to 45.9 points in February 2026 from 41.3 points in January, but was lower than in February 2025 (46.9 points), according to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) website.
“Uncertainty about the duration of hostilities, the destruction of energy and infrastructure, rising costs and electricity prices, labor shortages, and seasonality have held back economic activity and negatively affected business sentiment,” the regulator said in a press release.
At the same time, consumer demand, international financial aid, and slowing inflation supported business sentiment. As a result, enterprises in all sectors surveyed revised their assessments of business activity upward in February compared to January.
The highest assessments of current economic activity in February were demonstrated by industrial enterprises, although they remained cautious amid power shortages, labor shortages, and rising production costs: the sectoral index was 46.9, compared to 41.7 in January (in February 2025 – 50.2).
“Manufacturers lowered their expectations regarding output and new orders, including exports, as well as work in progress, while assessments of finished product inventories were somewhat more pessimistic,” the NBU noted.
Construction companies ranked second in terms of estimates last month: the sectoral index rose to 46.6 from 37.9 in January (in February 2025 – 44.7).
“Builders, preparing for the start of the season, significantly improved their assessments of current activity, although they remained cautious due to difficult weather conditions and electricity shortages, while at the same time an increase in new orders was expected,” the central bank emphasized.
Assessments of service sector companies also improved in February: the sectoral index rose to 45.4 from 42.1 in January (in February 2025 – 42.2).
“The service sector expected a slower pace of decline in the volume of services provided and new orders, despite complicated logistics and rising labor, heating, and electricity costs during the winter period,” the press release said.
Retailers remained the most cautious last month: the sector index rose to 45.0 from 40.0 in January (in February 2025 – 49.2).
“Trading companies have lowered their expectations for a decline in turnover and purchases, while at the same time becoming more optimistic about inventories of goods for sale, maintaining their expectations for a decline in trade margins,” the NBU reported based on the results of a survey of enterprises.
Given the expected acceleration in the growth of purchase prices, respondents from all sectors were optimistic about further increases in prices and tariffs for their own products and services.
The situation with personnel varied by sector: only construction planned to increase its workforce, while industry, trade, and services expected reductions, most notably in industry.
It should be noted that the survey was conducted from February 3 to 20, 2026. A total of 598 enterprises participated in the survey: 43.3% were industrial companies, 25.6% were in the service sector, 25.3% were in trade, and 5.9% were in construction. By size: 30.9% were large enterprises, 29.3% were medium-sized, and 39.8% were small.
At the same time, 33.9% of the surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 8.9% carry out only export operations, 18.4% carry out only import operations, and 38.8% do not carry out foreign economic operations.
