Until the end of 2020, the hryvnia will remain at the level of UAH 28/$1 with further strengthening to UAH 27-27.5/$1 in the first half of 2021, Oleksandr Martynenko, the head of the ICU Investment Group’s corporate financial analysis division, says.
“At the end of this year, as we expect, the upper possible corridor of the range will be UAH 28.5/$1, but most likely, the hryvnia will be closer to the lower range of UAH 28/$1,” Martynenko said during an online conference.
Speaking about the forecast of the exchange rate for 2021, Martynenko noted expectations of UAH 27-27.5/$1 against the background of exporters’ activity in the first half of next year, however, in the future, the transition to a deficit in the payment account may put pressure on the exchange rate.
“So far, the hryvnia is showing a higher resilience than previously expected. Mainly due to the greater activity of exporters and favorable markets for iron ore and steel,” he explained.
ICU expects capital inflows to resume in 2021 through private foreign investment and official borrowing. In addition, capital outflow will stop next year, Martynenko said.
“Foreign exchange reserves will increase, somewhere, by $ 3 billion, to $ 31 billion in 2021. That is, for the first time since the crisis of 2008-2009, the reserves should exceed 100% according to the metrics of a sufficient amount, which the IMF calculates,” Martynenko added.