Even after the end of the war, 860,000 to 2.7 million Ukrainian refugees may stay abroad, which will lead to a loss of GDP of 2.55 to 7.71%, according to a study of the Center for Economic Strategy (CES).
“According to our calculations, from 860 thousand to 2.7 million Ukrainians may stay abroad. More prone to return are the elderly, people with lower levels of education, as well as those who worked before the war, “- said the experts of the center.
They recalled that in total there were 3.8-4.7 million Ukrainian refugees abroad (except Russia and Belarus) by the end of 2022, and about 1.5 million more in Russia.
According to the survey conducted by Info Sapiens, the ratio of adults to children is 1:1.07. Among adults, women aged 35 to 49 are the most numerous – 42.2%, while men of that age make up 6.4%.
Women 25-34 years old make up 18.5%, men 3.2%, and those 18-24 years old 8.2% and 3.5%, respectively.
According to the survey, at the end of the year 11.3% of refugees aged 35-49 years definitely or rather did not plan to return to Ukraine, 13.1% of refugees aged 18-24 years, 8.2%-8.3% of refugees aged 25-34 years, and 50-65 years.
It is also stated that almost a quarter of the residents left the Zaporizhzhya region, and almost a fifth from Kiev and the Kiev region, while from the western regions – less than 10%.
Among the main reasons for refugees to settle in a new place outside of Ukraine the CEC named the prolongation of the war, the positive attitude of Europeans to Ukrainians, the prospects for children.
In addition, those who left abroad from the war zone may have nowhere to return, so their return depends on the rapid reconstruction of their regions or support to move to other regions of Ukraine.
