The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) estimates a potential reduction in revenue from the sale of export products subject to the EU I Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at the level of $100 million annually from 2026.
The estimates were given in the quarterly inflation report of the NBU.
The NBU said that Ukrainian exporters of carbon-intensive metallurgical products to the EU ($30-50 million per year) will suffer the lion’s share of the damage.
At the same time, the cumulative damage for exporters subject to CBAM is assessed as moderate.
The action of CBAM in the wording proposed by the European Commission will apply to the import of fertilizers, electricity, products of the cement industry and metallurgy (iron, steel, aluminum). These are, as noted in the EC, the sectors with the highest carbon dioxide emissions.
At the same time, the National Bank said that the income of Ukrainian companies may be reduced even more if the mechanism is extended to other sectors of the economy, indirect CO2 emissions are added, free emission quotas in the EU are rapidly eliminated and the transition period is reduced.
Such initiatives, as is known, are put forward by a number of members of the European Parliament. The law on the introduction of the mechanism can be adopted already in the middle of this year after parliamentary consultations.
To minimize the negative impact of CBAM, the NBU advises to focus on the development of a national emissions trading system (ETS), which, in turn, will allow the collected funds to be directed to eco-modernization.
The conclusions of the National Bank differ significantly from the estimates of the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE). KSE experts predict that the introduction of CBAM by the European Union could lead to an annual reduction in the income of Ukrainian companies up to EUR 396 million annually during 2026-2030. Thus, Ukraine’s GDP will decrease by 0.08% per year.