The indicator of business confidence in industry in Ukraine in February 2024 increased by 2 p.p. compared to January 2023 – up to “minus” 9%, while in the processing industry it increased by 3.6 p.p. – To “minus” 8.3%, reported the State Statistics Service.
In turn, the indicator of business climate in industry increased by 0.2 p.p., to +0.2%. – to +0.2%, while in the processing industry increased by 0.4 p.p. to 0.4%. – to 0.4%.
As reported, expectations for business activity prospects in 2023 began to deteriorate in May, when the business confidence indicator stood at “minus” 6.8% and “minus” 5% in industry and processing, respectively, and continued to decline during June-December, amounting to “minus” 13.5% and “minus” 15.6% in December, respectively.
However, in January this year, this indicator increased by 2.6 pp y-o-y to “minus” 11% in December-2023, while in the processing industry it increased by 3.9 pp y-o-y to “minus” 11.8%. – To “minus” 11.8%.
At the same time, the indicator of business climate in industry and processing industry in January, as well as in December-2023 remained at the zero level.
The components for calculations of these indicators have seasonally adjusted values of balances formed on the basis of reports submitted by enterprises. In particular, the assessment of the current volume of orders for production (demand) in industry in February amounted to “minus” 42% (in January – “minus” 44%), in processing industry – “minus” 45% (against “minus” 47%).
In turn, February expectations for output in the next three months improved significantly – in industry they rose to +5% from zero in January-2023, in processing – to +11% from “minus” 1%.
As reported, the best value in 2023 was reached in April-2023 at +10% in manufacturing and +17% in processing.
The estimate of current finished goods inventories in February was “minus” 10% and “minus” 9%, respectively (“minus” 11% and “minus” 12% in January); the estimate of output for the previous three months was “minus” 1% and +1% (“minus” 6% and “minus” 3% in January).
At the same time, the assessment of the current volume of export demand in industry worsened by 2 p.p. to “minus” 31%, and in processing industry remained at the level of “minus” 38%.
According to the statistical agency, the supply of orders of enterprises, still, on average, for four months.
As detailed by the State Statistics Committee, based on the results of the survey of industrial enterprises in February, the growth of selling prices for products in the next three months (February-April) is expected by 31% of surveyed industrial enterprises compared to 33% in January, while the decrease – still 2%; in the processing industry, respectively, 35% and 2%.
At the same time, 25% of industrial enterprises expect in February-April 2024 a decrease in the volume of manufactured products (20% in January), and 20%, as a month earlier, expect growth.
In the processing industry, 28% of respondents expect production growth (8 p.p. more), while 17% of respondents expect a decrease (20% in January).
In the next three months, 17% of the surveyed industrial enterprises expect a decrease in the number of employees, 7% – growth, whereas in January this indicator amounted to 16% and 6%, respectively.
For the previous three months (November 2023-January 2024), 23% of the industrial enterprises noted an increase in production volumes, while a decrease – 31% (in January, respectively, 28% and 29%), and the current volume of production orders (demand) above normal was noted by only 1%, while 39% – below normal and 60% – normal for the season.
The main factor restraining the production is still insufficient demand – its growth in November-January was noted by 19% of industrial enterprises (in processing – 18%), while the decrease was noted by 30% and 32%, respectively.
