Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 will decrease by 33%, the main factors of the decline will be massive losses in production, demand and exports, according to the updated macroeconomic forecast of the analytical department of Alfa-Bank Ukraine.
Ukraine’s GDP will fall by 30% in 2022, and the country’s economy will grow by 25% next year, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) published such an updated forecast, while in March it estimated this year’s decline at 20%, and growth in the next year at 23%.
Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 will fall by 30%, subject to a protracted war until the end of the year, and subject to a truce and the possible opening of ports – by 22-25%, such estimates were voiced by Dragon Capital Head Tomas Fiala.
Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 will decrease by 30%, however, the unblocking of seaports would reduce the economic decline to 22-25%, Olena Bilan, chief economist at Dragon Capital, believes.
S&P Global Ratings lowered its foreign currency long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on Ukraine to ‘CCC+/C’ from ‘B-/B’, the rating agency said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-March 2022 decreased by 40 times compared to the same period in 2021 – to $31.6 million from $1.272 billion, the State Statistics Service reported.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in April this year amounted to $191 million compared to a $900 million positive balance in March, the State Customs Service said.
According to its data and previously released data from the State Statistics Service, imports in April increased by about 63.3% compared to March, to $2.87 billion, while exports increased by only 0.8%, to $2.67 billion.
Inflation in Ukraine in annual terms in April may increase to 15.9% from 13.7% in March, this forecast was given by Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine Kyrylo Shevchenko, referring to the NBU estimates based on web-scraping (a method of collecting prices from online supermarkets).
Ukraine’s total state debt in April grew by 0.84% in U.S. dollars to $97.62 billion, in hryvnias – by 0.84% to UAH 2.855 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance.
During the three months of the war, the construction industry of Ukraine has decreased more than 70%, despite the dot resumption of work at construction sites in Ukraine, while the cost of construction has increased by 20%, Director General of the Kovalska Industrial-Construction Group Serhiy Pylypenko has said.
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
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