Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 will fall by 45.1%, the World Bank predicts, recalling that before the Russian invasion, it expected the Ukrainian economy to grow by 3.2% this year.
The Ukrainian economy is expected to contract by 35% in 2022, although precise measures of the damage to the Ukrainian economy are impossible to obtain, according to the updated World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund released.
The Ministry of Finance expects a fall in Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 ranging from 35% to 50%, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko has said.
Due to the war unleashed by Russia, Ukraine’s gross public debt will increase to 86.2% of GDP in 2022 after declining from 61% of GDP to 49% of GDP last year, this forecast is given by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The fall of the Ukrainian economy in 2022 will be about 33% according to the base scenario, in which the war will last for another month and a half at the most, Oleksandr Pecheritsyn, a leading analyst at Raiffeisen Bank (Kyiv), said.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-March 2022 decreased by 40 times compared to the same period in 2021 – to $31.6 million from $1271.6 million.
The rise of consumer prices in Ukraine in March 2022 accelerated to 4.5% from 1.6% in February, while 1.3% in January and 0.6% in December, the State Statistics Service has said.
Inflation in Ukraine by the end of 2022 may exceed 20% due to the consequences of a full-scale war, but it will be controlled, the National Bank of Ukraine said.
Due to the war unleashed by Russia, Ukraine’s gross public debt will increase to 86.2% of GDP in 2022 after declining from 61% of GDP to 49% of GDP last year, this forecast is given by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The transport enterprises of Ukraine (excluding the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, as well as part of the JFO zone) in 2021 increased transportation of goods by 3.3% compared to 2020 – up to 619.9 million tonnes.
About 23% of Ukrainian retailers’ outlets are closed, most of the non-operating facilities are in the entertainment segment, according to a survey by the Association of Retailers of Ukraine.
“As of April 20, some 11,744 stores out of 15,263 that were open at the time of the start of full-scale aggression were operating. That is, 23% less – 3,521 are closed. Compared to March, the situation is improving, since then the relative loss of retail was 29.4% – 4,481 store,” the association said. Fresh review dedicated to macro economic figures is available via link https://youtu.be/dwh7Q6aZZBA
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
