Real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the fourth quarter of 2021 grew by 5.9% compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 after rising by 2.7% in the third quarter, the State Statistics Service published such a preliminary estimate. Fitch Ratings forecasts GDP growth of 2.9% in 2022, from 3.0% in 2021, a 1pp downward revision from the August review due to slowing growth in real wages and private consumption, a drag on domestic demand from heightened geopolitical risk, and the high gas price.
The level of the shadow economy in Ukraine in January-September 2021 amounted to 31% of GDP, which is 1 p.p. less compared to the corresponding period in 2020, the Ministry of Economy said.
In 2021 inflation in Ukraine rose to 10% from 5% in 2020 and 4.1% in 2019, while underlying inflation rose to 7.9% against 4.5% a year earlier.
Since 2014, the conflict with the Russian Federation has cost Ukraine 19.9% of its pre-conflict GDP annually, totaling $280 billion in lost GDP in 2014-2020.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade balance decreased by only 0.2% in 2021 compared to 2020, from $0.678 billion to $0.676 billion.
The surplus of Ukraine’s foreign trade in services decreased by 4.2% in 2021 compared to 2020, to $5.563 billion (in 2020, the surplus was at $5.809 billion), the State Statistics Service reported. The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods decreased by 8.1% in 2021 compared to 2020, to $4.728 billion from $5.144 billion.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in January 2022 accelerated to 1.3% from 0.6% in December and 0.8% in November 2021, the State Statistics Service reported.
As of February 25, state budget revenues amounted to UAH 97 billion, including a payment in the amount of UAH 18.8 billion from the National Bank of Ukraine, and there are all possibilities to make payments, Minister of Finance Serhiy Marchenko has said.
Ukraine sold industrial products (goods, services) for UAH 3.584 trillion in 2021, which is 44.5% more than in 2020 (UAH 2.481 trillion), including for UAH 1.019 trillion outside the country.
Since the beginning of 2021/22 (July-June) and as of February 21, Ukraine has exported 42.54 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops, which is 37.3% higher than the figures for the same date of the previous year.
Real wages in Ukraine in December 2021 increased by 11.9% compared to December 2020, and compared to November 2021, the growth was 21.5%.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin.
