Ukrainian wheat, which is in great demand on the world market, has started to rise in price due to a decrease in supply from key players who have reduced their activity ahead of the new season harvest, according to the analytical cooperative “Start”, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (AAC).
“In April, 541 thsd tonnes of wheat have already been exported. Some of the products that could not be exported in March will be shipped from Ukraine in April. Therefore, this month we can reach the export level of 3 mln tons – this will happen due to the March contracts. Importers are ready to wait for wheat deliveries, as demand is growing. The increase in demand is supported by the forecasts of production decline in the EU, the US and Ukraine, i.e. all key exporters,” the analysts said.
They reminded that last season Ukraine exported a lot due to large carry-over stocks. This season, they will not exceed 1 million tons, as the ports are working. At the same time, the sown areas are shrinking, and less wheat will be harvested. The first estimates of the export potential of Ukrainian wheat in the new season have already been reduced by 3-4 million tons.
“Although the Ukrainian CPT market saw a drop in prices last week, the market is coming back to life, prices are returning to previous levels and will continue to grow. Our main competitor – Russian wheat – has risen in price by $8-10 per ton in recent weeks. The price of Ukrainian wheat will rise by at least $2-3 per ton by the end of the week,” the experts predict.
According to their estimates, by the end of the week, the conditional prices for wheat on CPT basis will be about $175 per ton in the Danube ports, $170 per ton in deep-water ports, $198-203 per ton on DAP Constanta basis.
“According to expectations, the demand for wheat will continue to drive the wheat market upwards,” Pusk summarized.
