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Ukrainians cautiously optimistic about future – sociological survey

10 January , 2024  

The number of Ukrainians who believe that the next year will be successful is 17.7% higher than the number of those who believe that the next year will be unsuccessful. While the number of those who rate the past year as more successful is only 1.7% higher than those who rate it as more unsuccessful. These are the results of a sociological survey conducted by Active Group on December 30, 2023, using the SunFlower Sociology online panel.

Answering the question “In which areas did the Ukrainian government work best in 2023?”, the highest rating was given to attracting international economic support, which was indicated by 44.5% of respondents. Attracting international political support came in second place, with 33.5% of respondents mentioning it. Attracting international military support was named by 32.7% of respondents as the third most successful area of work of the Ukrainian authorities. The three areas of work of the government that respondents mentioned the least were “Ensuring the safety of citizens in the government-controlled territory” (5.3%), providing support to socially vulnerable groups (5.0%), and ensuring the rights and freedoms of citizens in the government-controlled territory (1.4%).

Next, respondents were asked to answer the question of how much they trust the following politicians. It turned out that Volodymyr Zelenskyy has the highest level of trust among the respondents. Thus, the number of those who trust Zelenskyy (fully or partially) exceeded the number of those who do not trust him by 48.9%. Mykhailo Fedorov is on the second place from the proposed list, who also has a positive balance of trust, amounting to 24.1%. The number of those who trust Vitali Klitschko is only 1.9% less than those who do not trust him. The rest of the politicians from the proposed list (Dmytro Razumkov, Volodymyr Groysman, Oleh Tyahnybok, Oleh Lyashko, Oleksiy Arestovych, Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko) have a negative balance of trust and distrust, with percentages ranging from -20.5% to -76.6%.

Thus, the leaders of trust are Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Mykhailo Fedorov, who are trusted (partially or fully) by 71.3% and 56.1% respectively. And the leaders of distrust are Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko, who are distrusted (partially or completely) by 75.7% and 84.1% respectively.

Respondents also assessed the usefulness of the work of the top three politicians – Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Petro Poroshenko, and Yulia Tymoshenko Volodymyr Zelenskyy received the highest score. 20.9% of respondents consider his activities “extremely useful” and 38.1% consider them “more useful.” The overall balance of usefulness and harmfulness for Zelenskyy is 31.5%.

Petro Poroshenko has a much more negative perception. Only 5.0% of respondents consider his activities “extremely useful,” and 15.3% – “more useful.” Instead, 22.5% consider his activities “more harmful” and 47.5% – “exclusively harmful”. His overall balance is -49.7%.

Yulia Tymoshenko also has mostly negative assessments. Only 1.7% of respondents consider her activities “exceptionally useful,” and 5.9% – “more useful.” However, 29.4% consider her activities “more harmful,” and 34.7% – “exclusively harmful.” The overall balance of usefulness and harmfulness for Tymoshenko is -56.5%.

Answering a couple of questions “Which of these politicians has done the most/least for the development of Ukraine?” Only Volodymyr Zelenskyi (48.4%) and Mykhailo Fedorov (9.8%) received a positive balance of answers. The rest of the politicians received a negative balance. The worst performers were Oleh Lyashko, Petro Poroshenko, and Yulia Tymoshenko with results of -38.4%, -39.0%, and -45.3%, respectively.

Next, respondents were asked to give their assessment of politicians’ openness to people, their ability to represent Ukraine in the international arena, and their moral and professional qualities.

Openness to people:

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is considered the most open (45.2%), but 14.5% consider him the least open, with a difference of 30.7%.

Vitali Klitschko has a positive balance (10.6% vs. 8.7%), with a difference of 1.9%.

Yulia Tymoshenko has the worst balance (-27.4%), with 2.1% against 29.5%.

Representation of Ukraine in the international arena:

Volodymyr Zelenskyy leads (56.7% vs. 11.7%), with a difference of 45.0%.

Mykhailo Fedorov has a positive balance (10.3% vs. 4.3%), with a difference of 6.0%.

Petro Poroshenko has a significant negative balance (-29.0%), with 9.0% vs. 38.0%.

Moral qualities:

Volodymyr Zelenskyy also leads (44.2% vs. 13.4%), with a difference of 30.8%.

Mykhailo Fedorov has a positive balance (11.3% vs. 4.7%), with a difference of 6.6%.

Yulia Tymoshenko has the worst balance (-37.4%), with 2.5% vs. 39.9%.

Professional qualities:

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is again the leader (40.4% vs. 15.0%), with a difference of 25.4%.

Mykhailo Fedorov has a positive balance (16.8% vs. 4.4%), with a difference of 12.4%.

Yulia Tymoshenko has a significant negative balance (-31.7%), with 5.0% against 36.7%.

Summing up the assessments of individual qualities, we can conclude that Volodymyr Zelenskyi with an average score of 48.4% and Mykhailo Fedorov with an average score of 13.1% are perceived most positively among the above-mentioned candidates. The most negatively perceived are Petro Poroshenko, with an average negative rating of 38.4%, and Yulia Tymoshenko, with an average negative rating of 37.6%.

The study was conducted by Active Group with the help of the SunFlower Sociology online panel. Method: Self-completion of questionnaires by Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older. Sample: 2000 questionnaires (representative by age, gender and region of Ukraine). Data collection period: December 30, 2023. The theoretical error of the study does not exceed 2.2% (for results close to 50% with a confidence level of 0.95).

You can join the SunFlower Sociology online panel and receive a monetary reward for completing surveys by following the link.