The World Bank predicts the growth of the economy of Uzbekistan in 2022 by 5.3%, according to the updated WB economic review for the Europe and Central Asia region.
Earlier in April, the World Bank expected the country’s GDP to grow by 3.6% this year.
“According to forecasts, Uzbekistan’s GDP growth will slow to 5.3% in 2022 (in 2021 the economy grew by 7%) and will be 4.9% in 2023. Increasing difficulties in the field of logistics (supplies) associated with sanctions against Russia, will slow down the growth of private consumption,” the document says.
At the same time, according to the WB, private investment and exports are expected to grow steadily, and the current account balance of payments will improve, as Uzbekistan continues to benefit from high world commodity prices (gold, copper, natural gas) and increased remittances from labor migrants. .
“Foreign direct investment is not expected to increase in 2022, and the trade deficit will be covered primarily by government borrowing,” the review said.
According to the World Bank, higher commodity export revenues and “slow” government investment spending will reduce the budget deficit from 6.2% of GDP in 2021 to 4.4% in 2022. However, the deficit will be higher than planned (at 3%) due to higher government spending on social protection, health care, education and infrastructure development.
The government is expected to continue to adhere to its own borrowing restrictions. Thus, public debt and total external debt will gradually decrease to 32% and 55% of GDP, respectively, by the end of 2024.
The state budget of Uzbekistan for 2022 included GDP growth at the level of 5.9%, the inflation rate was planned to be reduced to 9%.
Earlier, the EBRD raised its growth forecast for the economy of Uzbekistan from 4% to 5.5%. The ADB forecast for the growth rate of the economy of Uzbekistan for the current year has not changed – 4%. According to the State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan, in the first half of the year, the country’s GDP increased by 5.4%.
ECONOMY, UZBEKISTAN, WORLD BANK
