The global grain harvest in 2023 could be at the level of the record-breaking 2021, FAO (the UN Food and Agriculture Organization) predicts.
According to its review, the estimate of the global harvest for this year in September compared to July (the review was not released in August) was reduced by 4 million tons. Despite this, the global harvest may be 0.9% higher than last year’s and amount to 2 billion 815 million tons, which corresponds to the record figure for 2021.
Thus, the forecast of wheat harvest was reduced by 2.2 million tons to 781.1 million tons. “It is expected that global wheat production will decrease by 2.6% compared to last year, but, nevertheless, it will be the second highest figure in the history of observations,” the review says. The largest decline was in production in Canada and the EU due to dry weather. The wheat harvest forecast in China has been lowered due to heavy rains in a number of key grain-producing regions. This decrease was partially offset by an increase in the forecast in the United States, India and Ukraine, “as indicated by the latest data provided by the governments of these countries on a more abundant harvest than previously expected.”
The forecast of feed grain harvest was lowered by 1.3 million tons to 1 billion 511 million tons, which is mainly due to a decrease in barley and oat harvests. However, this figure is 2.7% higher than last year. Thus, the estimate of barley harvest has been reduced by 2.9 million tons to 143.8 million tons (5.6% lower than last year). The oat harvest will be the lowest in 11 years – 23.1 million tons.
At the same time, corn production may reach a record high of 1 billion 215 million tons. The forecast has been raised by 3.6 million tons, mainly due to “richer than expected harvests in Brazil and Ukraine.” This will more than compensate for the lower forecast for corn harvest in the US and EU.
The FAO estimates this year’s rice harvest at 523.2 million tons. This is 500 thousand tons lower than the July forecast, but 1.1% higher than the harvest last season.
