The volume of retail sales of oil products decreased by 20% over the week, March 14-21, a fall against the background of quarantine measures may reach 40-50% in April, Director of A-95 Consulting Group (Kyiv) Serhiy Kuyun has said.
“Over the weekend, I talked with the top managers and owners of several large fuel station chains. Everyone reported a fall in sales by 15% from the middle of the week, and by 20% or more over the weekend compared to the previous Saturday,” he wrote on his Facebook page on Monday, March 23.
According to him, the largest decline in retail sales is 40% in the western regions, primarily in Zakarpattia and Chernivtsi. At the same time, sales fell by 90% at fuel stations located close to border points.
Kuyun also said that expectations are also the same, namely sales decrease by 40-50% in April. This is very optimistic, given that in Italy fuel stations lost 70-80%.
Predicting the situation with fuel supplies to the Ukrainian market, Kuyun said that there would be no shortage of resources.
According to him, purchase prices have the potential to decrease in April by UAH 3 per liter for petrol, by UAH 2.5 per liter for diesel fuel at a rate of UAH 30/$1, and by UAH 4.2 per liter and UAH 3.7 per liter, respectively, at a rate of UAH 28/$1. At the same time, in the absence of hryvnia devaluation, a fall in the world prices for oil and oil products would lead to a decrease in purchase prices by UAH 6 per liter for petrol and UAH 5.5 per liter for diesel fuel in April, the expert said.
Due to the fall in the volume of sales of oil products against the background of quarantine, the decrease in revenue in cafes and shops, as well as the increase in the cost of operating a fuel station, namely employees’ transportation, provision of protective equipment, and disinfection of premises, a decrease in purchase prices will not lead to a change in retail prices, Kuyun said.