Political expert Volodymyr Volia has shared his opinion about development prospects of the EU, the economic situation today and the consequences of the pandemic, as well as made forecasts about the revival of the Schengen Area exclusively for the Expert Kitchen program on the Expert Club YouTube channel.
According to the expert, the EU has faced several unpleasant events lately, such as the Brexit referendum and the so-called coronavirus crisis, and if the second wave of the pandemic occurs, the recession may get even worse and trigger a social crisis, poverty and unemployment.
“As the economy of Europe has been seriously affected since February, we may witness even a longer halt that will ‘kill’ the economy of the EU,” Volia said.
He added that as of the middle of April alone the EU has sustained a loss of more than EUR 3 trillion, which equals the annual federal budget of the United States. The expert also forecasted the exacerbation of the argument between the EU member states on the allocation of sales quotas, which are especially important to the countries of the Eastern and Southeast Europe, assistance and contributions to the EU budget.
In the expert’s opinion, the revival prospects of the Schengen Area look more optimistic.
“I think the movement inside the Schengen Area will be completely resumed by the end of June. As to the states, which are not a part of this area, a piecemeal approach will be applied to them. The epidemiological situation in each specific country will be taken into account and the regions of the world will be determined for the simplification of the procedure. Certainly, everything will also depend on the purpose of travel,” he said.
Volia also noted that tourism in the non-Schengen countries will be revived almost in full by the beginning of July.
The local election campaign has begun and the regional elites started investing in headquarters, advertising and PR campaigns. The local elites used the situation with the quarantine and poor coordination of events in the top-down system for self-promotion before the elections due on October 25, 2020, political technologist Kyrylo Molchanov, who is also an expert at the Ukrainian Institute of Politics, said.
In the second program “Expert Kitchen” on the Expert Club YouTube channel, Molchanov made assessment of the incumbent mayors’ chances to be re-elected for a new tenure at the upcoming elections.
The expert said that Hennadiy Kernes in Kharkiv, Vitali Klitschko in Kyiv and Hennadiy Trukhanov in Odesa have the highest chances to stay on their posts. He also noted that one should expect the most interesting election campaigns in Dnipro and Lviv, where Andriy Sadovy has lost his positions in recent years.
Speaking about prospects of parties, the expert said that some political forces continue dominating in certain regions where they used to be popular. The main struggle will take place between the Opposition Platform – For Life and the Servant of the People in southeastern Ukraine, between the Servant of the People and Batkivschyna in central regions, and the so-called pro-European and nationalist forces in western Ukraine.
According to Molchanov, the ruling party in general will fail to repeat the success of its previous campaigns as its popularity continues declining. Therefore, the Servant of the People will have to form coalitions with other parties in regions, which may result into unexpected political consequences both in Ukraine’s regions and, hence, in the central government.
Find more details about the 2020 local election campaign in the video on the Expert Club YouTube channel: