According to the Experts Club analytical center, citing data from the A-95 Consulting Group, the Ukrainian gasoline market continues to be concentrated around supplies from Poland and Lithuania: in July 2026, these two countries accounted for 55% of total imports.
Ukraine received 56,100 tonnes of gasoline from Lithuania and 51,700 tonnes from Poland. Together, this amounted to around 107,800 tonnes out of total imports of approximately 196,000 tonnes.
The Polish supply route is demonstrating particularly high growth rates. Compared with July last year, the volume of supplies increased by 68% and reached its highest level since August 2025.
Imports from Lithuania increased by 16% year-on-year.
The ORLEN oil refining group plays a key role in both supply routes. The group’s facilities in Poland and Lithuania supplied around 97,000 tonnes of gasoline to the Ukrainian market.
A-95 estimates ORLEN’s share at more than half of total imports. Comparing the rounded figures of 97,000 tonnes and the total volume of 196,000 tonnes, this represents approximately half of the market.
The high level of concentration has a dual effect.
On the one hand, the large and stable refineries in Poland and Lithuania allow Ukraine to rapidly increase purchases during periods of higher demand and compensate for the loss of other suppliers.
On the other hand, more than half of the available supply comes from only two geographical routes, while a very significant share of deliveries is linked to a single refining group.
Poland’s importance increased particularly after Ukraine switched to E10 gasoline. The change in standards limited the possibility of using some traditional sources, including certain Greek refineries.
At the same time, Greece has not disappeared from the market entirely. In July, Ukraine imported around 25,000 tonnes of gasoline produced by Motor Oil.
Germany became another rapidly growing supply route. It supplied 21,000 tonnes of gasoline, 78% more than in July 2025. The UPG network imported the entire volume.
Thus, the structure of imports in July demonstrates two parallel trends: ORLEN’s growing role as a key supplier and simultaneous attempts by Ukraine’s largest fuel retail networks to diversify purchases through Germany, Romania and Greece.
According to the Experts Club analytical center, citing data from the A-95 Consulting Group, Ukraine imported about 196,000 tonnes of gasoline in July 2026, the highest figure since August 2025.
At the same time, data from an infographic published by the A-95 Consulting Group show that the volume of supplies increased by approximately 51% compared with June. In June, the main supply routes accounted for about 130,000 tonnes of gasoline, whereas in July the figure reached around 196,000 tonnes.
The sharp increase in imports occurred despite the Ukrainian market’s transition to the E10 standard on July 1, which requires the mandatory addition of bioethanol to gasoline. The new requirement temporarily narrowed the range of available foreign suppliers.
In particular, the Greek Hellenic Petroleum refinery does not produce gasoline of the required standard. Its products had previously been used by Ukrainian traders during periods of increased demand.
At the same time, the beginning of July coincided with rising petroleum product prices on the global market and increased domestic demand.
A-95 noted that the situation was most strained during the first half of the month. However, the increase in supplies made it possible to stabilize the market in the second half of July. Importers also contracted the necessary volumes for August in advance.
Poland and Lithuania became the main sources of additional supply. Imports from Lithuania increased from 40,500 tonnes in June to 56,100 tonnes in July, while imports from Poland rose from 30,700 tonnes to 51,700 tonnes.
Supplies from Germany also increased noticeably, from 16,900 tonnes to 20,900 tonnes. Around 34,000 tonnes arrived from Romania, compared with 31,200 tonnes one month earlier.
At the same time, imports from Moldova decreased from 9,600 tonnes to 5,800 tonnes.
Thus, July became a test of the Ukrainian market’s ability to rapidly restructure external supplies following changes to gasoline quality requirements. Despite the initial contraction of the available supply base, importers managed to increase supplies by approximately one and a half times within a single month.
In July 2026, the state-owned company Ukrnafta increased its diesel fuel imports by 2.4 times compared to July of last year—to nearly 60,000 metric tons—ranking second among the country’s largest importers.
These figures were reported by the “A-95 Consulting Group.” A total of 134 companies imported diesel fuel in July.
The OKKO Group retained first place, importing more than 73,000 metric tons of diesel fuel. Its imports rose by 32% compared to July 2025.
Ukrnafta accounted for about 59,800 metric tons, or approximately 10.6% of the country’s total diesel fuel imports in July.
UPG took third place with 53,200 metric tons. Next came Energo Trade JSC with 50,700 metric tons and WOG with 42,900 metric tons.
Thus, the five largest importers together imported about 280,000 metric tons of diesel fuel—nearly half of the total volume of supplies to Ukraine in July.
Among the major market players, the Western Fuel and Energy Company (ZPEK) demonstrated the highest growth rate, increasing its imports by a factor of 5.3—to approximately 32,000 metric tons.
The sharp increase in Ukrnafta’s purchases comes amid its growing role in the Ukrainian petroleum products market following the expansion of its own network of gas stations and trading operations.
Overall, Ukraine imported 562,000 metric tons of diesel fuel in July—5% more than a year earlier.
However, despite the rise in imports, A-95 reported a fuel shortage in the market. Analysts cite several reasons for this, including increased demand following a rise in global prices, higher purchases by industrial and private consumers, and increased consumption due to the shift in agricultural exports toward road and rail transport.
In August, analysts expect the situation to gradually normalize thanks to a decline in global prices and an increase in fuel supply.
In January–July 2026, Ukraine imported approximately 10.9 thousand metric tons of manganese ore, whereas there were no imports of this product during the same period last year.
According to data from the State Customs Service, virtually the entire volume of shipments came from Ghana—10,896 metric tons worth $1.677 million. An additional 5 metric tons, worth $3,000, were imported from China.
Thus, Ghana accounted for 99.82% of the value of Ukraine’s manganese ore imports in January–July.
The resumption of imports coincides with the recovery of foreign trade in manganese ore overall. Over the seven-month period, Ukraine exported 24,647 metric tons of such products worth $4.227 million.
The average estimated price of exported ore was approximately $171 per metric ton, while that of ore imported from Ghana was approximately $154 per metric ton. These figures are estimates based on customs value and physical shipment volumes and do not reflect differences in the quality and characteristics of the raw material.
Manganese ore imports into Ukraine have fluctuated significantly in recent years. In 2024, the country imported 84,293 thousand metric tons worth $18.302 million.
In 2025, imports fell to 37,006 thousand metric tons, valued at $5.546 million. Notably, the entire volume was shipped from Ghana in November alone, while imports were virtually nonexistent from January through October.
The resumption of shipments as early as the first half of 2026 may indicate growing demand for raw materials in the ferroalloy industry amid a gradual recovery in production.
The main consumers of manganese ore in Ukraine are enterprises in the ferroalloy industry. The Nikopol and Zaporizhzhia Ferroalloy Plants halted smelting after Ukrainian mining companies ceased extraction of raw manganese ore in the fall of 2023; however, ferroalloy production was partially resumed in the summer of 2024.
Ukraine’s trade surplus in ferrous metals and products made from them in January–July 2026 fell by approximately 40% compared to the same period last year—to approximately $465 million.
The calculation is based on data from the State Customs Service of Ukraine.
Over the first seven months, Ukraine exported $1.678 billion worth of ferrous metals and an additional $507.5 million worth of metal products. Total export revenue for these two groups amounted to approximately $2.185 billion.
At the same time, imports of ferrous metals reached $1.023 billion, while imports of ferrous metal products amounted to $697.6 million. Thus, total imports amounted to approximately $1.720 billion.
The difference between exports and imports narrowed to approximately $465 million.
For comparison: based on the annual trends published by the State Customs Service, in January–July 2025, total exports of these two commodity groups amounted to approximately $2.385 billion, imports to approximately $1.612 billion, and the trade surplus to approximately $773 million.
Thus, the annual trade surplus decreased by approximately $308 million, or nearly 40%.
The main reason for this decline is the opposing trends in export and import flows. Total exports of ferrous metals and metal products over the seven-month period decreased by approximately 8.4%, while imports of these goods increased by approximately 6.7%.
The imbalance is particularly noticeable in the metal products segment: exports here totaled $507.5 million, while imports amounted to $697.6 million, resulting in a trade deficit of about $190 million.
Ferrous metals are currently offsetting this deficit: their exports exceed imports by approximately $655 million. However, at the same time, foreign exchange proceeds from their exports fell by 7.6%, while imports rose by 7.2%.
This trend indicates a noticeable decrease in the positive contribution of metallurgical products to Ukraine’s foreign trade balance in 2026.
In January–July 2026, Ukrainian steelmakers saw their foreign exchange revenue from ferrous metal exports decline by 7.6% compared to the same period last year—to $1.678 billion from $1.816 billion.
This is according to data from the State Customs Service of Ukraine.
The share of ferrous metals in Ukraine’s total merchandise export revenue over the first seven months fell to 6.95% from 7.79% in January–July 2025, or by 0.84 percentage points.
Thus, metallurgical products continue to account for a significant portion of Ukraine’s merchandise exports, but their share is shrinking amid a decline in the sector’s foreign exchange earnings.
At the same time, imports of ferrous metals into Ukraine continued to grow. In January–July, they increased by 7.2% to $1.023 billion.
Despite the contrasting trends in exports and imports, Ukraine maintained a positive trade balance in ferrous metals of approximately $655 million over the seven-month period.
The situation with fabricated metal products deteriorated separately. Exports of these products fell by 10.8% to $507.5 million, while imports rose by 6% to $697.6 million. As a result, the foreign trade deficit in fabricated metal products stood at about $190 million.
By comparison, at the end of 2025, export revenue from ferrous metals rose by 7.85% to $3.339 billion, and their share of total merchandise exports reached 8.25%. In 2024, exports of ferrous metals increased by another 16.9%—to $3.096 billion.
Thus, after two years of growth in the metallurgical sector’s export revenues, the trend reversed in 2026: revenues are declining, while imports of ferrous metals and metal products continue to rise.
