Business news from Ukraine

UKRAINIAN MACRO SUMMARY IN APRIL-MAY

Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 will decrease by 33%, the main factors of the decline will be massive losses in production, demand and exports, according to the updated macroeconomic forecast of the analytical department of Alfa-Bank Ukraine.
Ukraine’s GDP will fall by 30% in 2022, and the country’s economy will grow by 25% next year, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) published such an updated forecast, while in March it estimated this year’s decline at 20%, and growth in the next year at 23%.
Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 will fall by 30%, subject to a protracted war until the end of the year, and subject to a truce and the possible opening of ports – by 22-25%, such estimates were voiced by Dragon Capital Head Tomas Fiala.
Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 will decrease by 30%, however, the unblocking of seaports would reduce the economic decline to 22-25%, Olena Bilan, chief economist at Dragon Capital, believes.
S&P Global Ratings lowered its foreign currency long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on Ukraine to ‘CCC+/C’ from ‘B-/B’, the rating agency said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-March 2022 decreased by 40 times compared to the same period in 2021 – to $31.6 million from $1.272 billion, the State Statistics Service reported.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in April this year amounted to $191 million compared to a $900 million positive balance in March, the State Customs Service said.
According to its data and previously released data from the State Statistics Service, imports in April increased by about 63.3% compared to March, to $2.87 billion, while exports increased by only 0.8%, to $2.67 billion.
Inflation in Ukraine in annual terms in April may increase to 15.9% from 13.7% in March, this forecast was given by Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine Kyrylo Shevchenko, referring to the NBU estimates based on web-scraping (a method of collecting prices from online supermarkets).
Ukraine’s total state debt in April grew by 0.84% in U.S. dollars to $97.62 billion, in hryvnias – by 0.84% to UAH 2.855 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance.
During the three months of the war, the construction industry of Ukraine has decreased more than 70%, despite the dot resumption of work at construction sites in Ukraine, while the cost of construction has increased by 20%, Director General of the Kovalska Industrial-Construction Group Serhiy Pylypenko has said.
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
Video dedicated to macro economic figures is available via link https://youtu.be/dwh7Q6aZZBA

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UKRAINIAN MACRO SUMMARY IN MARCH-APRIL

Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 will fall by 45.1%, the World Bank predicts, recalling that before the Russian invasion, it expected the Ukrainian economy to grow by 3.2% this year.
The Ukrainian economy is expected to contract by 35% in 2022, although precise measures of the damage to the Ukrainian economy are impossible to obtain, according to the updated World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund released.
The Ministry of Finance expects a fall in Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 ranging from 35% to 50%, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko has said.
Due to the war unleashed by Russia, Ukraine’s gross public debt will increase to 86.2% of GDP in 2022 after declining from 61% of GDP to 49% of GDP last year, this forecast is given by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The fall of the Ukrainian economy in 2022 will be about 33% according to the base scenario, in which the war will last for another month and a half at the most, Oleksandr Pecheritsyn, a leading analyst at Raiffeisen Bank (Kyiv), said.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-March 2022 decreased by 40 times compared to the same period in 2021 – to $31.6 million from $1271.6 million.
The rise of consumer prices in Ukraine in March 2022 accelerated to 4.5% from 1.6% in February, while 1.3% in January and 0.6% in December, the State Statistics Service has said.
Inflation in Ukraine by the end of 2022 may exceed 20% due to the consequences of a full-scale war, but it will be controlled, the National Bank of Ukraine said.
Due to the war unleashed by Russia, Ukraine’s gross public debt will increase to 86.2% of GDP in 2022 after declining from 61% of GDP to 49% of GDP last year, this forecast is given by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The transport enterprises of Ukraine (excluding the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, as well as part of the JFO zone) in 2021 increased transportation of goods by 3.3% compared to 2020 – up to 619.9 million tonnes.
About 23% of Ukrainian retailers’ outlets are closed, most of the non-operating facilities are in the entertainment segment, according to a survey by the Association of Retailers of Ukraine.
“As of April 20, some 11,744 stores out of 15,263 that were open at the time of the start of full-scale aggression were operating. That is, 23% less – 3,521 are closed. Compared to March, the situation is improving, since then the relative loss of retail was 29.4% – 4,481 store,” the association said. Fresh review dedicated to macro economic figures is available via link https://youtu.be/dwh7Q6aZZBA
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin

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UKRAINIAN MACRO SUMMARY OF 2021 AND BEGINNING OF 2022

Ukraine’s losses from destruction due to a full-scale war against Russia amount to at least $100 billion, the war has led to a complete shutdown of half of Ukrainian enterprises, Oleh Ustenko, adviser to the President of Ukraine, said.
As of March 7, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a fall in Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 as a result of Russia’s armed aggression, provided that it ends as soon as possible, by 10% and inflation rises to 20%.
The financial gap of Ukraine in 2022 is estimated from $4.8 billion according to the balance of payments method to $7.4 billion according to the fiscal balance method, such estimates were given by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as of March 7 in materials for emergency financing for Ukraine in the amount of $1.4 billion posted on its website.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculation methodology, which takes into account such military conflicts, estimates the fall in GDP due to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine at 35% in 2022, Alternate Executive Director for Ukraine at the IMF Vladislav Rashkovan has said.
The Ukrainian economy is suffering greatly from the war unleashed by Russia, the decline in its GDP could be a third of what it was before the war, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in a Foreign Policy Live discussion.
The Ministry of Economy estimates the amount of losses from the Russian invasion of Ukraine at $564.9 billion, First Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has said.
The fall in Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) as a result of full-scale Russian military aggression is currently estimated at 35% or more, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
Ukraine’s losses from Russia’s full-scale military aggression, taking into account both the destruction already inflicted on the infrastructure and economy, and future losses in subsequent years, exceed $1 trillion, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
The state budget in January-February 2022 had a surplus in the amount of UAH 24 billion, including a surplus of UAH 13.1 billion for the general fund, with a planned deficit of the general fund for this period of UAH 66.2 billion, the Ministry of Finance reported on its website.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade balance decreased by only 0.2% in 2021 compared to 2020, from $0.678 billion to $0.676 billion. According to it, over the past year, exports of goods and services increased by 34.3%, to $79.724 billion, while imports – by 33.9%, to $80.401 billion.
Ukrainian transport companies carried almost 2.657 billion passengers in 2021, which is 3.4% more than in 2020.
The transport enterprises of Ukraine (excluding the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, as well as part of the JFO zone) in 2021 increased transportation of goods by 3.3% compared to 2020 – up to 619.9 million tonnes, the State Statistics Service reported.
In January 2022, retail trade turnover in Ukraine increased by 18% compared to the same month in 2021 in comparable prices, while in December 2021 the growth was 5.1%.
Production of grains and oilseeds in 2022 in Ukraine is preliminary estimated at 53.3 million tonnes, which is 51% lower than the previous season’s record, due to the Russian military invasion and ongoing hostilities, this year’s harvest may be minimum for the last 10-15 years.
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin

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UKRAINIAN MACRO SUMMARY OF 2021 – STATISTICS BEFORE WAR

Real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the fourth quarter of 2021 grew by 5.9% compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 after rising by 2.7% in the third quarter, the State Statistics Service published such a preliminary estimate. Fitch Ratings forecasts GDP growth of 2.9% in 2022, from 3.0% in 2021, a 1pp downward revision from the August review due to slowing growth in real wages and private consumption, a drag on domestic demand from heightened geopolitical risk, and the high gas price.
The level of the shadow economy in Ukraine in January-September 2021 amounted to 31% of GDP, which is 1 p.p. less compared to the corresponding period in 2020, the Ministry of Economy said.
In 2021 inflation in Ukraine rose to 10% from 5% in 2020 and 4.1% in 2019, while underlying inflation rose to 7.9% against 4.5% a year earlier.
Since 2014, the conflict with the Russian Federation has cost Ukraine 19.9% of its pre-conflict GDP annually, totaling $280 billion in lost GDP in 2014-2020.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade balance decreased by only 0.2% in 2021 compared to 2020, from $0.678 billion to $0.676 billion.
The surplus of Ukraine’s foreign trade in services decreased by 4.2% in 2021 compared to 2020, to $5.563 billion (in 2020, the surplus was at $5.809 billion), the State Statistics Service reported. The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods decreased by 8.1% in 2021 compared to 2020, to $4.728 billion from $5.144 billion.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in January 2022 accelerated to 1.3% from 0.6% in December and 0.8% in November 2021, the State Statistics Service reported.
As of February 25, state budget revenues amounted to UAH 97 billion, including a payment in the amount of UAH 18.8 billion from the National Bank of Ukraine, and there are all possibilities to make payments, Minister of Finance Serhiy Marchenko has said.
Ukraine sold industrial products (goods, services) for UAH 3.584 trillion in 2021, which is 44.5% more than in 2020 (UAH 2.481 trillion), including for UAH 1.019 trillion outside the country.
Since the beginning of 2021/22 (July-June) and as of February 21, Ukraine has exported 42.54 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops, which is 37.3% higher than the figures for the same date of the previous year.
Real wages in Ukraine in December 2021 increased by 11.9% compared to December 2020, and compared to November 2021, the growth was 21.5%.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin.

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MACRO SUMMARY OF UKRAINIAN ECONOMY – RESULTS OF 2021

Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021, according to preliminary estimates, will amount to 3.2%, which won’t compensate for the 4% economic decline in 2020, head of the Council of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Bohdan Danylyshyn has said.
The World Bank has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2022 to 3.2%, and in 2023 to 3.5%, while in October last year it expected it to increase accordingly by 3.5% and 3.7%.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has downgraded its estimate of the growth of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 from 3.8% to 3.4%, in 2021 – to 3% from 3.1%.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-November 2021 fell by 13.2% compared to January-November 2020, to $3.607 billion from $4.158 billion, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine reported.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in 2021 accelerated to 10% from 5% in 2020 and 4.1% in 2019.
Inflation in the raw food group of goods in 2022 may range from 10% to 20%, which will lead to an inflationary jump to 8-10% and, in turn, will require anti-crisis measures, adviser to the Ukrainian president Oleh Ustenko has said.
The deficit of the general fund of the state budget of Ukraine in 2021 amounted to UAH 166.8 billion, while the plan was UAH 220.9 billion, and in December the deficit of the general fund was UAH 109.1 billion, the Ministry of Finance reported with reference to the operational data of the State Treasury Service of Ukraine.
The total state debt of Ukraine in December grew by 4.04% in U.S. dollars to $97.95 billion, in hryvnias by 4.43%, to UAH 2.671 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance, released on Wednesday.
Industrial production in Ukraine grew by 1.1% in 2021, while a 5.2% decline was recorded in 2020.
Ukraine in January-November 2021 sold industrial products (goods, services) worth UAH 3.185 trillion, which is 44.2% more than in January-November 2020 (UAH 2.209 trillion), including outside the country in the amount of UAH 920.471 billion.
Real wages in Ukraine in December 2021 increased by 11.9% compared to December 2020, and compared to November 2021, the growth was 21.5%.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in 2021 increased by 5.1% compared to 2020, while the growth rate in 2020 compared to 2019, according to updated data, was 5.6%.
The transport enterprises of Ukraine in 2021 increased transportation of goods by 3.3% compared to 2020 – up to 619.9 million tonnes.
Since the beginning of the 2021/2022 marketing year (MY, July-June) and as of January 21, Ukraine has exported 36.08 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops, which is 27.6% more than the figures for the same date of the previous marketing year.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin.
Previously Experts Business Club created a video summary dedicated to macroeconomics.
Full video watch here

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MACRO SUMMARY OF UKRAINIAN ECONOMY IN OCT-NOV

Oxford Economics has worsened its expectations for real GDP growth in Ukraine to 3.5% in 2021 from 4% in the August forecast, as well as the forecast for economic growth in 2022 – to 3.4% from 3.5%. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) kept its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2021 at 3.5%, according to its November forecast released on Thursday.
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2021 increased by 2.4% compared to the third quarter of 2020 after growing by 5.7% in the second quarter of this year, the State Statistics Service published such preliminary estimates.
The growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2021, taking into account the preliminary data of the State Statistics Service for the third quarter, may turn out to be at the level of 3% against 4.6% set in the state budget for this year, which will mean the absence of payments on value recovery instruments (VRI) in 2023, according to experts interviewed by Interfax-Ukraine.
Ukraine’s GDP in January-September 2021 grew by 2% compared to the same period last year, Head of the Council of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Bohdan Danylyshyn has said. J.P. Morgan has sharply downgraded its forecast for real GDP growth in Ukraine in 2021 from 4.5% to 2.3%, while maintaining its forecast for GDP growth in 2022 by 5%, according to the materials of the November EMEA Emerging Markets Research. Analysts at Morgan Stanley have lowered their estimate of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 to 3% from 3.4% in the October outlook, the growth forecast for 2022 has been lowered to 3.5% from 4.2%, according to the outlook materials.
Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 may be lower than the 3.1% previously predicted by the central bank, Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Serhiy Nikolaichuk has said.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its estimate of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 to 3.2%, compared with 3.5% in the October forecast, according to Ukraine’s memorandum with the fund, released on November 24.
The surplus of the foreign trade of Ukraine for January-September 2021 increased by 95.7% compared to January-September 2020 – up to $440 million.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-September 2021 decreased by 37.9% compared to January-September 2020, to $ 1.966 billion from $ 3.166 billion, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has reported.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine year-over-year in October 2021 decreased to 10.9% from 11% in September, the State Statistics Service reported.
The total public debt of Ukraine in October 2021 grew by 0.66% in U.S. dollars and amounted to $92.63 billion, while it decreased by 0.28% in hryvnias, to UAH 2.438 trillion.
After a 0.7% decline in September in October 2021, industrial production in Ukraine returned to growth and grew by 1.4% compared to October 2020, the State Statistics Service reported.
Real wages in Ukraine increased by 4% in October 2021 y-o-y, and decreased by 2.2% compared to September of this year.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin

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