Business news from Ukraine

MACRO SUMMARY OF UKRAINIAN ECONOMY IN AUG-SEPT

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ukraine’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LTFC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B’ with a stable outlook, the rating agency said on its website.
The decision to partially buy back GDP warrants issued during the restructuring of Ukraine’s external debt in 2015 is aimed at reducing payments from the state budget, which next year should amount to $40 million, and for the entire circulation period of these securities may exceed $22 billion by 2040, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko has said.
The fall in Ukraine’s GDP in January-July 2020 slowed down to 6.2% compared to 6.5% in the first half of this year, according to the economic activity review for the seven months of 2020, published by the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture.
S&P Global Ratings affirmed its global scale long-term foreign and local currency sovereign ratings on Ukraine at ‘B’ and its Ukraine national scale ratings at ‘uaA’.
The decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in 2020 will be 6%, but next year the economy will return to growth: in 2021 – by 4%, in 2022-2023 – by 3% annually, according to a forecast contained in the report of the S&P Global Ratings (S&P), which affirmed Ukraine’s ratings at ‘B/B.’
The task of financing the deficit of the state budget of Ukraine for 2021 of UAH 270 billion, or 6% of GDP, is feasible and can be accomplished without using the scheme for banks to purchase government domestic loan bonds at non-market rates thanks to refinancing loans from the National Bank, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko has said.
Dragon Capital Investment Company has improved its forecast for the fall of the Ukrainian economy in 2020 from 7.2% of GDP to 5.5% of GDP, head of the company Tomas Fiala has said.
Ukraine’s GDP is forecast to contract by 5.5% in 2020, followed by a recovery of 3.0% in 2021, according to the September Regional Economic Prospects of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) published on Thursday.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-August 2020 halved compared with January-August 2019, to $2.43 billion from $4.96 billion, according to data from the State Customs Service presented on Tuesday. According to its statistics, the export of goods from Ukraine over the specified period compared to the same period in 2019 decreased 6.6%, to $ 30.91 billion, imports – 12.4%, to $33.34 billion.
Consumer prices in Ukraine in August 2020 decreased by 0.2% after falling by 0.6% in July and growing by 0.2% in June, 0.3% in May and 0.8% in April and March, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The draft state budget for 2021 provides for an increase in receipts by 9.4%, expenditure – by 5.1%, Minister of Finance of Ukraine Serhiy Marchenko has said.
The loan portfolio of Ukrainian banks in January-August 2020 expanded by 3.8% to UAH 1.14 trillion, including the volume of non-performing loans (NPL) – by 3.2%, to UAH 547.71 billion, according to a report posted on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
The retail trade turnover in Ukraine in August 2020 increased by 8.7% compared to the same month in 2019 at comparable prices, while in the previous month the growth was 8.5%, the State Statistics Service has said.
According to the report, in August compared to July 2020 retail turnover increased by 2.2%.

,

MACRO SUMMARY OF UKRAINIAN ECONOMY IN JULY-AUGUST

The gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine, according to the Ministry of Economy, in the first half of 2020 decreased by 6.5% compared to the same period in 2019, in particular in the second quarter the decline was 11%, which is less than expected earlier (14%).
The drop in Ukraine’s GDP in 2020 will amount to 6% instead of 4.2% expected in April this year, such a consensus forecast on the impact of СOVID-19 on the economy and the society was announced by the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture.
The fall in the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the second quarter of 2020 amounted to 11.4% compared to the same period in 2019 against 1.3% in the first quarter, the State Statistics Service has reported in its preliminary estimate.
The Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine improved the inflation forecast for 2020 to 5.9% December over December, while in the macroeconomic forecast approved in March, this indicator was at the level of 11.6%, according to the forecast of the socio-economic development of Ukraine for 2021-2023.
Real wages in Ukraine in July 2020 compared to July 2019 increased by 5.1%, and from June 2020 by 2.6%, the State Statistics Service has said.
The Ukrainian Finance Ministry has redeemed the second series of eurobonds issued in the course of restructuring in 2015 and maturing this year worth $1.69 billion and paid some $400 million in interest payments on eurobonds maturing in 2020-2027.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-August 2020 halved compared with January-August 2019, to $2.43 billion from $4.96 billion, according to data from the State Customs Service presented.
Consumer prices in Ukraine in July 2020 decreased by 0.6% after growing by 0.2% in June, 0.3% in May and 0.8% in April and March, the State Statistics Service has reported.
State budget revenues in July 2020 amounted to UAH 68.92 billion, which is 8% more than the target, but 10.8% behind the last year’s level, according to data from the State Treasury Service.
Ukraine’s international reserves in July 2020, according to preliminary data, increased by 1%, to $28.802 billion, according to the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
The debt of the population of Ukraine for housing and utilities services in July 2020 decreased by 3.6% compared to June and amounted to UAH 50.5 billion (excluding electricity).
The prices of industrial producers in Ukraine in July 2020 increased by 0.4%, while in June they decreased by 2%, in May by 0.6% with an increase in April by 0.1%, in March by 1.8%, February by 0.1% and January by 2.5%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Since the beginning of the new 2020/2021 marketing year (MY, July-June) and as of August 21, Ukraine had exported 5.62 million tonnes of grains and legumes, which is 1.22 million tonnes less (due to corn) than on this date in the past MY.
Prices for construction and installation works in Ukraine in January-June 2020 increased by 1.3% compared to January-June 2019, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine reports.
The turnover of retail trade in Ukraine in July 2020 compared to the same month in 2019 in comparable prices increased by 8.5%, while in the previous month the growth was 1.4%, the State Statistics Service has said.

,

MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY – MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN APRIL 2018

Ukraine’s GDP in January-March 2018 grew by 3.1% year-over-year, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine reported.
The deficit of Ukraine’s balance of foreign trade in Q1 2018 totaled $134.9 million, while in Q1 2017 the surplus was $126.1 million, the State Statistics Service reported.The Ukrainian government has approved a list of large enterprises for privatization in 2018. It includes 26 enterprises: five regional electricity supply companies, Centrenergo, Odesa Port-Side Plant, Turboatom, Zaporizhia Titanium and Magnesium Combine, United Mining-Chemical Company and Sumykhimprom.
Capital investments in Ukraine in 2017 amounted to UAH 448.462 billion (excluding the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea, Sevastopol, and Donbas).
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade with goods in January-March 2018 grew 1.5-fold year-over-year, reaching $1.201 billion ($794.1 million in Q1 2017), the State Statistics Service reported.
The surplus of Ukraine’s foreign trade in services in January-March 2018 increased by 16% compared to 2016, to $1.461 billion (in January-March 2017 some $1.259 billion), the State Statistics Service has said.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in April 2018 was 0.8% compared to 1.1% in March, 0.9% in February and 1.5% in January, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has said.
Prices in the industry of Ukraine in April 2018 remained unchanged after growth by 0.3% in March, 1.2% in February and4.4% in January, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Revenue of Ukraine’s national budget in April 2018 totaled UAH 78.87 billion, which is UAH 1.67 billion or 2.2% more than the target, the State Treasury Service of Ukraine reported on its website.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) confirmed the forecast for 2018 inflation at 8.9% in April.
Ukraine’s international reserves grew by 1.3% in April 2018 and amounted to $18.421 billion as of May 1, 2018, according to tentative data published on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
Industrial production in Ukraine in April 2018 increased by 3% compared with April 2017, while the figure in March 2018 year-over-year was 1%, it was 1.9% in February 2018 and 3.6% in January 2018, the State Statistics Service said.
The volume of sold industrial products (goods, services) in January-March 2018 stood at UAH 621.436 billion, which is 16.7% more than in January-March 2017, in particular the volume sold abroad was worth UAH 166.784 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The consumer confidence of Ukrainians improved in April 2018: the Consumer Confidence Index equals 61.3, which is 3.7 points higher than the indicator in March 2018, GfK Ukraine has said in its monthly study.
Ukraine’s retail trade turnover in January-April 2018 increased by 7% in comparable prices in comparison with January-April 2017, the State Statistics Service has said.

,