Ukraine will be able to sign a new program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the amount of $6-8 billion by the end of 2019 and make necessary payments on foreign debt in 2020 and 2021, Raiffeisen analysts predict. In the document, they noted a high probability of obtaining the majority by the pro-presidential party Servant of the People, which was leading in polls with an indicator of 41.5-52.30%, which will ensure the implementation of reforms promised by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, due to which Ukraine will be able to receive IMF support.
According to the analysts, even if it fails to independently form the government, the Servant of the People party can form a coalition with Svyatoslav Vakarchuk’s Holos party, which is supported by 5-7% of the respondents.
“Given the commitment of President Zelensky to reforms, the new government will be able to sign a new three-year program with the fund in the amount of $6-8 billion by the end of 2019,” the report says.
Raiffeisen analysts point out that 40% of payments on Ukraine’s gross external debt are in 2020–2021 ($16.8 billion in 2020 and $18.5 billion in 2021), therefore the government needs a new cooperation program with the IMF as soon as possible. “Even given the full rollover of inter-company loans and the refinancing of 50% of corporate credits, Ukraine will have to pay $12.5 billion in 2020 and $15 billion in 2021,” the document says.
Ukrainian businesses predict further economic growth and the creation of new jobs in 2019 for the second year in a row, according to a survey of company heads conducted by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in the fourth quarter of 2018. According to the website of the central bank, the growth of business activity is expected at enterprises of all types of economic activity, while the most optimistic enterprises are in the processing industry.
In the regional context, optimistic moods are preserved by companies from all regions, except for Kirovohrad. Enterprises from Ternopil and Lviv regions have the highest expectations.
“Expectations of high growth rates of economic activity are based primarily on the forecast of an increase in the total volume of sales of own produce, as well as investment spending on machinery and equipment,” the report said.
According to the National Bank, one-third of respondents expect that production will grow, and every second company believes that it will at least remain at the current level. The growth of the total sales of products and the improvement of the financial and economic state is predicted by respondents of all types of economic activity, except for enterprises of power and water supply sectors. Trade and processing enterprises have the highest expectations.